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Application of agglomerative hierarchical clustering method in precipitation forecast assessment
QIAO Jinrong, YUAN Xinpeng, LIANG Xudong, XIE Yanxin
Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022 40 (4): 699
For precipitation forecast products with different methods and time, a large number of evaluation results often exist together. At present, we’re still lacking effective measures on how to analyze comprehensively and systematically these results. In this study, the agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis is introduced to classify and analyze the different evaluation results of different forecast products, based on a grid precipitation forecast dataset of each member of the national forecast technology and method competition of CMA from June to September 2019, the central station guide forecast (SCMOC) of the National Meteorological Center, the seamless analysis and forecasting leading-ed. . .
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New progress and prospect of drought research since the 21st century
WANG Ying, ZHANG Qiang, WANG Jinsong, HAN Lanying, WANG Suping, ZHANG Liang, YAO Yubi, HAO Xiaocui, WANG Sheng
Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022 40 (4): 566
Drought is one of the natural disasters with the widest impact and the most serious economic losses in China, which directly threatens the country’s food security and socio-economic development. The understanding and research on drought will help to improve the national capacity of drought prevention and mitigation. Since 1949, China’s research on drought meteorology has achieved fruitful results. Based on the research results of the scientific research project group related to drought meteorology carried out by the Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration since the 21st century, through the achievement retrieval, this paper sum. . .
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Characteristicsof cloud macroscopic parameters in the hinterland of Taklimakan Desert in arid region of Northwest China in August and September 2019
LI Zhengpeng, BI Jianrong, ZUO Dapeng, ZHANG Linhan, YANG Fan
Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022 40 (4): 576
Cloud is a key modulator of the energy budget in earth-atmosphere system. The macro- and micro-physical parameters of cloud have an important influence on precipitation intensity and distributions in arid region. In order to clarify the macroscopic characteristics of cloud in the hinterland of Taklimakan Desert (TD), the structures of cloud layers were continuously detected at Tazhong station from July 23 to September 30 in 2019 by using the CHM15K ceilometer. The variation characteristics of cloud base height, cloud layer thickness, and total cloud coverage were analyzed over Tazhong station in August and September 2019. The results show that the ceilometer could clearly observe the distrib. . .
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Individual and joint influence of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on drought and flood in rainy season of southwestern China
MA Mengmeng, ZUO Hongchao, LI Licheng, DUAN Jikai
Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022 40 (4): 588
The change of drought and flood in southwestern China is affected by many weather systems. The intensity change of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon (QTPSM) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) sub-seasonal system will lead to change of drought and flood in rainy season of southwestern China, but the systematic research on synergy of the two systems on precipitation was scarce at present. Therefore, based on the daily precipitation data from Climate Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and daily reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 1981-2020, etc., we analyze the individual and joint influence mechan. . .
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Formation conditions and characteristics of heavy precipitation with quasi-linear MCSs
XU Min, SHEN Fang, LIU Qiqi, LI Na, WANG Jie
Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022 40 (4): 604
Based on the observation data of national weather station, Doppler radar data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) from 2010 to 2019, the echo pattern,climatic characteristics as well as the change of physical quantity of heavy precipitation with quasi-linear MCSs were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The results are as follows: (1) There were three types of echo patterns, namely trailing stratiform (TS) type, leading stratiform (LS) type, and parallel stratiform (PS) type.TS type had the highest frequency, while LS and PS types were . . .
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Relationship between the clouds and precipitation over southern China based on ISCCP and CMORPH-AWS data
FAN Sirui, WANG Weijia, CHEN Yonghang
Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022 40 (4): 623
This paper addresses the spatial and temporal variation of cloud cover at different heights over southern China and its relationship with precipitation, which is useful for understanding the role of clouds in precipitation and feedback mechanisms as well as provides a basis and foundation for the development of cloud water resources. Based on 12 years (1998-2009) data from the D dataset of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of total cloud cover, low cloud cover, medium cloud cover and high cloud cover were analyzed over Southern China. And based on the CMORPH-AWS merged gridded precipitation product which combined . . .
