Analysis of agricultural climatic resources change of high quality wheat in Henan Province under future climate scenarios

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2024-06-0965

Abstract

Abstract:

The impact of climate change on agricultural climate resources will directly affect agricultural production. It is of great significance to accurately analyze the change of agricultural climate resources to guide agricultural production. Based on historical meteorological data from 1971 to 2005 of 113 ground meteorological observation stations in Henan Province, simultaneous simulation data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario model output, and simulation data of regional climate model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, the spatial distribution and change trend of high-quality wheat agro-climatic resources in Henan Province from 2021 to 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were analyzed by using eight climate factors, such as precipitation and accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ during the whole growth period of winter wheat, total radiation and rain days from March to April, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, daily maximum temperature ≥32 ℃ days and total radiation in May. The results indicate that the accumulated temperature of ≥0 ℃ during the whole growth period of winter wheat showed a significant increasing trend (α=0.05), and the average climate tendency rates under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are 46.8-61.0 and 49.5-65.5 ℃·d·(10 a)^-1, respectively, and the temperature rise is more obvious under RCP8.5 scenario. The number of days with maximum temperature ≥32 ℃ in May at 83.2% of sites under RCP4.5 scenario and all sites under RCP8.5 scenario show a significant increasing trend (α=0.05), and the climate tendency rates are 0.2-0.8 and 0.3-1.0 d·(10 a)^-1, respectively. The precipitation at the sites in the southwest during the whole growth period of wheat shows a decreasing trend, and at the other sites it shows an increasing trend, but none of them are significant. At most sites, rain days from March to April and radiation in May show an insignificant increasing trend. The radiation amount in March and April and the precipitation in May show an insignificant decreasing trend. The diurnal range of average temperature in May in the northern and western regions shows a decreasing trend, while in other regions it shows an increasing trend, but none of them are significant. In general, the future agro-climatic resources will have a certain adverse effect on the planting of strong gluten wheat in Henan Province.

Key words: climate change, agro-climatic resources, high quality wheat, Henan Province

摘要：

气候变化对农业气候资源的影响将直接作用到农业生产上，准确分析农业气候资源变化对指导农业生产具有重要意义。基于河南省113个地面气象观测站1971—2005年历史气象数据、RCP（Representative Concentration Pathways）情景模式输出的同时段模拟数据、RCP4.5和RCP8.5未来气候情景数据，选取冬小麦全生育期降水量与≥0 ℃积温，3—4月辐射总量及雨日，5月降水量、平均气温日较差、日最高气温≥32 ℃天数和辐射总量等8个气候因子，分析RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2021—2050年河南省优质小麦农业气候资源空间分布及变化趋势。结果表明，冬小麦全生育期≥0 ℃积温各站均表现为显著增加趋势（α=0.05），RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下其平均气候倾向率分别为46.8~61.0和49.5~65.5 ℃·d·（10 a）^-1，其中RCP8.5情景下升温更明显；RCP4.5情景下83.2%的站点和RCP8.5情景下所有站点5月最高气温≥32 ℃天数呈显著增加趋势（α=0.05），气候倾向率分别为0.2~0.8和0.3~1.0 d·（10 a）^-1；全生育期降水量西南部站点表现为减少趋势，其余各站表现为增加趋势，但都不显著；3—4月雨日和5月辐射总量大部分站点表现为不显著增加趋势；3—4月辐射量和5月降水量表现为不显著减少趋势；河南北部和西部地区5月平均气温日较差呈减少趋势，其余为增加趋势，但均不显著。总体上看，未来农业气候资源对河南省强筋小麦种植将产生一定不利影响。

关键词: 气候变化, 农业气候资源, 优质小麦, 河南省

CLC Number:

S512.1

CHEN Qiao, WANG Bing, XIONG Kun, MAO Yangyang, YU Weidong. Analysis of agricultural climatic resources change of high quality wheat in Henan Province under future climate scenarios[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(6): 965-975.

陈巧, 王冰, 熊坤, 毛洋洋, 余卫东. 未来气候情景下河南省优质小麦农业气候资源变化分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(6): 965-975.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig.1 Distribution of RCP grid points and meteorological observation stations in Henan Province

Tab.1 Geographical estimation model of agricultural climate index in Henan Province

气候因子	地理模型	R	F
全生育期降水量（P）	P=22.21x-81.81y+0.137H+509.25	0.950	337.18^**
全生育期≥0 ℃积温（G）	G=-55.07x-100.81y-0.766H+12 125.91	0.866	109.44^**
3—4月辐射总量（S_3—4）	S_3—4=142.13x+484.64y+0.68H-21 324.67	0.883	128.41^**
3—4月雨日（D_3—4）	D_3—4=0.28x-2.98y+0.007H+82.58	0.966	510.85^**
5月降水量（R₅）	R₅=4.35x-17.18y+0.029H+154.56	0.911	176.52^**
5月气温日较差平均值（T₅）	T₅=-0.2x+0.656y+0.000 3H+12.4	0.806	67.42^**
5月日最高气温≥32 ℃天数（D₃₂）	D₃₂=-0.66x+0.123y-0.004 9H+75.09	0.676	30.55^*
5月辐射总量（S₅）	S₅=47.45x+315.78y+0.27H-10 070.2	0.917	191.17^**

Fig.2 The spatial distribution of average accumulated temperature more than 0 ℃ (a, c) (Unit: ℃·d) and its climatic tendency rate (b, d) (Unit: ℃·d·（10 a）-1) during the whole growth period of winter wheat under RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) scenarios from 2021 to 2050 (The circles indicate that the climate tendency rate is above the significance level of α=0.05, the same as below)

Fig.3 The spatial distribution of mean diurnal temperature range in May (a, c) （Unit: ℃） and it’s tendency rate (b, d) （Unit: ℃·(10 a)-1） under RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) scenarios from 2021 to 2050

Fig.4 The spatial distribution of days of daily maximum temperature more than or equal to 32 ℃ in May (a, c) (Unit: d) and it’s tendency rate (b, d) (Unit: d·（10 a）-1) under RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) scenarios from 2021 to 2050

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat (a, c) (Unit: mm) and it’s tendency rate (b, d) (Unit: mm·（10 a）-1) under RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) scenarios from 2021 to 2050

Fig.6 The spatial distribution of rain days from March to April (a, c) (Unit: d) and it’s tendency rate (b, d) (Unit: d·（10 a）-1) under RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) scenarios from 2021 to 2050

Fig.7 The spatial distribution of precipitation in May (a, c) (Unit: mm) and it’s tendency rate (b, d) (Unit: mm·（10 a）-1) under RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) scenarios from 2021 to 2050

Fig.8 The spatial distribution of solar energy flux from March to April (a, c) (Unit: W·m-2) and it’s tendency rate (b, d) (Unit: W·m-2·（10 a）-1) under RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) scenarios from 2021 to 2050

Fig.9 The spatial distribution of solar energy flux in May (a, c) (Unit: W·m-2) and it’s tendency rate (b, d) (Unit: W·m-2·（10 a）-1) under RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) scenarios from 2021 to 2050

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