Abstract:

In recent decades, under the global warming, drought disasters have had a significant impact on society and economy in China, and the intensity and disastrousness of droughts have significant regional characteristics. It is very important to understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought disasters and their associated economic losses for future drought loss estimation, regional drought disaster risk management, and drought resource allocation. Therefore, based on meteorological drought composite indexes from 1961 to 2022 and drought disaster loss data from 2001 to 2022 in China (except Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), the spatial and temporal changes of drought disasters and their periodic characteristics were deeply analyzed, and the correlation between drought disasters and economic losses in different provinces was explored. The results show that the drought intensity has interannual and interdecadal trends, the annual average drought intensity exists a two-year oscillation characteristic, and in the monsoon period, the drought intensity shows two significant change cycles of 9 years and 19 years. The drought intensity shows a distribution characteristic of strong in the south and weak in the north, the three strong drought centers in the south are located in the southwest, the middle of Huanghuai and the southeastern of South China. After 2000, the overall crop drought-affected area, the area with no harvest, the affected population and the overall direct economic losses in China show a decreasing trend, but in the northeast and southwest regions the direct economic losses are more prominent. The correlation between drought disasters and direct economic losses in different provinces is different. On the whole, southern regions are more affected by drought, especially in the central part of the Yangtze River Basin, where drought intensity is closely related to economic losses. In addition, the direct economic losses caused by drought in different regions are not only affected by drought intensity and frequency, but also related to crop planting area, drought resistance ability, population and environment.

Key words: China, drought disaster, spatiotemporal variation, direct economic loss, correlation

摘要：

在全球气候变暖背景下，干旱灾害对我国社会经济造成重大影响，且干旱强度和致灾性具有明显的区域性特征，研究干旱的时空变化特征及其关联的经济损失对未来旱灾损失预估、区域干旱灾害风险管理和抗旱资源配置等具有重要意义。基于1961—2022年中国（港、澳、台地区除外）及不同省（市、区）气象干旱综合指数和2001—2022年干旱灾害损失数据，分析干旱的时空变化及其周期性特征，并探究干旱灾害与经济损失之间的关联性。 结果表明，我国干旱强度具有年际和年代际变化趋势，年平均干旱强度存在2 a周期性振荡特征，季风期干旱强度存在9 a和19 a的显著周期变化；干旱强度具有“南强北弱”的分布特征，南方3个干旱强中心分别位于西南地区、黄淮中部以及华南东南部。进入21世纪后，我国农作物干旱受灾面积、绝收面积、受灾人口及直接经济损失整体呈减少态势，但东北和西南地区干旱灾害的直接经济损失较突出。不同省（市、区）干旱灾害与直接经济损失的关联程度不同，南方地区受干旱灾害影响更大，尤其是长江流域中部，干旱强度与经济损失关系紧密。此外，不同地区因干旱导致的直接经济损失不仅受干旱强度和干旱频次影响，也与农作物种植面积、抗旱能力以及人口和环境等因素相关。

关键词: 中国, 干旱灾害, 时空变化, 直接经济损失, 关联性