J4 ›› 2009, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 271-275.

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Effect Analysis on Interpretation of Extreme Temperature by ECMW F Products in Q ingyang

 LIU Li-Min1, DE Qiang-Ci-Mu2, MENG Li-Xia1   

  1. (1. Institute ofAridMeteorology, CMA, KeyLaboratory ofClimate Change andReducingDisaster ofGansu Province,
    Lanzhou730020, China;2. QingyangMeteorologicalBureau ofGansu Province, Qingyang745000, China)
  • Received:2009-03-23 Revised:2009-08-24 Online:2010-09-30 Published:2009-09-30

甘肃河东一次区域性暴雨天气过程分析

刘利民德庆措姆孟丽霞   

  1. 1.兰州中心气象台,甘肃 兰州 730020;2.西藏那曲地区气象局,西藏 那曲 852000
  • 作者简介:刘利民(1971-),男,河北昌黎人,工程师,主要从事中、短期天气预报及相关研究

Abstract:

The predictionmodel for the highestand lowest temperature is established by the CMSVM regressionmethod based on ECMWF data and the extreme temperature observations from 8 automaticweather stations inQingyang ofGansu Province from 2003 to2007.The effect test in 2008 operation forecast indicated that the rate ofaverage forecastaccuracy is64% and 71% for the highestand lowest temperature in 5 days, which has the good instruction for the real-timeweather service. The forecast accuracy rate of the highest and lowest temperature decreased with the forecast time increase, and the accuracy rate for the lowest temperature is higher than thatof the highest temperature. The forecast effect for the lowest temperature is better in spring and summer than that in autume and winter, but it is opposite for the highest temperature. The absolute and the average forecasterrors for the highestand lowest temperature are added with the forecast time increase, and the absolute forecasterror for the highest temperature is bigger than thatof the lowestbut the average error is close and positive. The forecast effect test in Septemper of 2008 indicated that the forecast values presented the similar trend to real time observations for the highest and lowest temperature.

Key words: ECMWF Products, the extreme temperature, interpretation, effect analysis

摘要:

2008年7月20~22日甘肃河东出现了一次区域性暴雨天气,对这次过程的环流形势演变、主要影响系统和物理量场特征进行分析。结果表明:在有利的环流形势下,高原低涡东移发展是造成此次强降水的主要系统;低空急流为此次暴雨提供了充足的水汽;低层辐合、高层辐散的流场形势引起强烈上升运动,为暴雨的发生和维持提供了很好的动力条件,保证了降水云系的发展和维持;比湿和假相当位温分布对暴雨落区预报有一定的指示意义。

关键词: 区域性暴雨{低涡, 低空急流, 物理量场

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