%0 Journal Article %A LIU Li-Min %A DE Qiang-Ci-Mu %A MENG Li-Xia %T Effect Analysis on Interpretation of Extreme Temperature by ECMW F Products in Q ingyang %D 2010 %R %J Journal of Arid Meteorology %P 271-275 %V 27 %N 3 %X

The predictionmodel for the highestand lowest temperature is established by the CMSVM regressionmethod based on ECMWF data and the extreme temperature observations from 8 automaticweather stations inQingyang ofGansu Province from 2003 to2007.The effect test in 2008 operation forecast indicated that the rate ofaverage forecastaccuracy is64% and 71% for the highestand lowest temperature in 5 days, which has the good instruction for the real-timeweather service. The forecast accuracy rate of the highest and lowest temperature decreased with the forecast time increase, and the accuracy rate for the lowest temperature is higher than thatof the highest temperature. The forecast effect for the lowest temperature is better in spring and summer than that in autume and winter, but it is opposite for the highest temperature. The absolute and the average forecasterrors for the highestand lowest temperature are added with the forecast time increase, and the absolute forecasterror for the highest temperature is bigger than thatof the lowestbut the average error is close and positive. The forecast effect test in Septemper of 2008 indicated that the forecast values presented the similar trend to real time observations for the highest and lowest temperature.

%U http://www.ghqx.org.cn/EN/abstract/article_8400.shtml