Assessment of monthly climate prediction in China from 1971 to 2020

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2024-05-0794

Abstract

Abstract:

China has been engaged in short-term climate prediction for nearly 70 years and was one of the earliest countries in the world to carry out short-term climate prediction and relevant researches. Since March 2021, the National Climate Center (NCC) of China has released officially the climate prediction for the next 15-30 days, months and seasons through its website. Short term climate forecasts are receiving increasing attention from society. In 2013, based on the operational prediction of short-term climate and the previous assessment methods, the Department of Forecasting and Networking of China Meteorological Administration issued a new method to assess operationally the short-term climate prediction. Using this new method, this paper analyzed the evaluation results for monthly climate prediction products during 1971-2020 released by the NCC. The results show that the prediction scores are lower in the winter half year than in the summer half year both for monthly temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly percentage. The forecast skill of monthly temperature anomaly has been improved significantly in recent 50 years. The anomaly correlation coefficient between the forecast and observation of monthly temperature anomaly are positive in most parts of China throughout the year, except for December. The prediction level of monthly precipitation anomaly percentage in China in 50 years shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing, especially in the past 30 years, it shows a relatively stable upward trend. The distribution of correlations between precipitation forecast and observation has three main patterns, which is much more complex than that of temperature, suggesting that the precipitation forecast is more challenging than temperature forecast.

Key words: monthly climate forecast, temperature, precipitation, assessment

摘要：

我国已开展短期气候预测工作近70 a，是世界上开展短期气候预测研究和业务最早的国家之一。自2021年3月开始，国家气候中心通过官网正式公开发布未来15~30 d、自然月和季节的气候预测公报，短期气候预测越来越受到社会关注。2013年中国气象局预报与网络司在短期气候预测业务的基本状况和历史评估方法的基础上，发布了短期气候业务预测效果评估方法，本文使用该方法对国家气候中心1971—2020年全国月气候趋势预测产品进行了评估。结果表明：无论是月平均气温距平还是月降水量距平百分率预测，夏半年的预测准确率均整体高于冬半年；近50 a全国月平均气温距平预测水平上升趋势明显，全年中除了12月外，其余月份平均气温距平预测与实况的距平相关系数在全国大部地区都呈正相关；近50 a全国月降水量距平百分率预测水平呈先降后升的趋势，尤其是近30 a呈现较为稳定的提升态势，月降水预测与实况的相关分布主要有3种形态，体现出降水预测比气温预测更为复杂的特性。

关键词: 月气候预测, 气温, 降水, 评估

CLC Number:

P461

SUN Linhai, ZHU Xiaying, LI Xiang, AI Wanxiu, YANG Mingzhu. Assessment of monthly climate prediction in China from 1971 to 2020[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(5): 794-803.

孙林海, 竺夏英, 李想, 艾婉秀, 杨明珠. 1971—2020年我国月气候预测业务预报评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(5): 794-803.

Figures/Tables 15

Fig.1 Spatial distribution of 2 288 meteorological stations in China

Fig.2 Number of inspection stations in 31 provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities） in China

Tab.1 The scoring criteria for the level 1 and level 2 anomaly prediction in temperature anomaly

预报	实况
预报	T_实况≥2 ℃	2 ℃>T_实况≥1 ℃	-1 ℃≥T_实况>-2 ℃	T_实况≤-2 ℃
T_预报≥2 ℃	√	×	×	×
2 ℃>T_预报≥1 ℃	×	√	×	×
-1 ℃≥T_预报>-2 ℃	×	×	√	×
T_预报≤-2 ℃	×	×	×	√

Tab.2 The scoring criteria for the level 1 and level 2 anomaly prediction in precipitation anomaly percentage

预报	实况
预报	R_实况≥50%	50%>R_实况≥20%	-20%≥R_实况>-50%	R_实况≤-50%
R_预报≥50%	√	×	×	×
50%>R_预报≥20%	×	√	×	×
-20%≥R_预报>-50%	×	×	√	×
R_预报≤-50%	×	×	×	√

Fig.3 The annual average variation of the prediction score of monthly temperature anomaly from 1971 to 2020 in China

Fig.4 The variation of prediction scores of monthly temperature anomaly from 1971 to 2020 in China

Tab.3 The maximum and minimum values and corresponding occurring time of the prediction scores of monthly temperature anomalies for each month and a whole year during 1971-2020

时间	最大值及出现年份		最小值及出现年份
时间	最大值/分	出现年份	最小值/分	出现年份
1月	93.6	2020	24.9	1993
2月	97.2	1972	15.8	1986
3月	96.9	2015	41.6	1976
4月	95.9	2018	21.1	2010
5月	95.7	2018	44.1	1988
6月	95.2	2020	42.9	1977
7月	94.9	2018	42.7	1971
8月	95.3	2013	38.5	1988
9月	95.6	2005	34.1	1986
10月	96.4	2008	25.2	1977
11月	94.4	2006	17.5	2009
12月	93.3	2007	19.2	1982
年平均	84.4	2013	54.8	1976

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of sign consistency rate between temperature anomaly prediction and the observation in January (a) and July (b) from 1971 to 2020 (Unit: ％)

Fig.6 The inter-monthly variation of proportion of stations of anomaly correlation coefficient between monthly temperature anomaly forecast and the observation from 1971 to 2020

Fig.7 The spatial distribution of anomaly correlation coefficient between air temperature anomaly forecast and the observation in May （a） and December （b） from 1971 to 2020

Fig.8 The annual average variation of the prediction scores of monthly precipitation anomaly percentage from 1971 to 2020

Fig.9 The inter-monthly variation of prediction scores of monthly precipitation anomaly percentage from 1971 to 2020 in China

Tab.4 The maximum and minimum values and corresponding occurring time of the precipitation anomaly percentage for each month and a whole year during 1971-2020

时间	最大值及出现年份		最小值及出现年份
时间	最大值/分	出现年份	最小值/分	出现年份
1月	77.9	1975	46.8	1990
2月	78.8	1994	45.0	1990
3月	80.5	1971	39.8	1992
4月	83.0	2011	45.8	1979
5月	81.1	2001	29.7	1979
6月	77.4	1972	50.2	1994
7月	81.9	2015	53.5	2003
8月	76.0	2020	48.6	1998
9月	81.3	2002	49.0	2020
10月	83.1	2013	39.9	2000
11月	80.9	2010	42.8	1982
12月	84.7	2020	36.8	1994
年平均	71.1	2015	58.7	1994

Fig.10 The spatial distribution of sign consistency rate between precipitation anomaly percentage prediction and the observation in January (a) and July (b) from 1971 to 2020 (Unit: ％)

Fig. 11 The inter-monthly variation of proportion of stations of anomaly correlation coefficient between precipitation anomaly percentage prediction and the observation from 1971 to 2020

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