Characterisation of total column water vapour in Jiangxi Province and its relationship with rainstorm

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2024-05-0755

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to improve the forecasting capability of rainstorm in Jiangxi Province, based on the fifth generation European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) atmospheric Re-Analysis (ERA5) data of the global climate, the daily precipitation data of the national meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi Province from 1990 to 2022 and the hourly precipitation data in 2023, the average and rainstorm day mean of total column water vapour（TCWV）in Jiangxi Province were analyzed, and threshold criteria are given for determining the TCWV that is favorable to the occurrence of regional rainstorms in Jiangxi. The results show that the TCWV on rainstorm day in Jiangxi Province show obvious spatial and temporal differences. The monthly mean TCWV is 20.0 to 36.0 mm in December and January, the lowest in the year; it can reach 64.0 mm in July and August, the highest in the whole year, and is mainly concentrated in the plains and hilly areas in northern and central Jiangxi. The median monthly mean TCWV at rainstorm sites in July and August exceeds 65.0 mm; the maximum value of TCWV in August could reach 77.5 mm. During rainstorm, the TCWV at the relevant stations usually reached or approached the monthly mean before heavy precipitation, and decreased to below the monthly mean after heavy precipitation. The monthly mean TCWV value on the day of rainstorm can be used as a threshold for predicting regional rainstorm in Jiangxi during that month: if the value of TCWV is close to or exceeds the upper limit of the monthly mean, the probability of the occurrence of extreme precipitation in Jiangxi Province increases. The central area of the maximum TCWV does not exactly coincide with the location of the rain band at the central area of the rainstorm, but it is usually located within the high value zone near it, so the central area of the maximum TCWV can be used as an important reference for predicting the location of the rain band of the rainstorm during heavy precipitation weather.

Key words: total column water vapour, hourly precipitation, rainstorm

摘要：

为提高江西暴雨预报准确性，基于1990—2022年欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代大气再分析（ERA5）资料、江西省国家气象观测站日降水资料和2023年逐时降水资料，分析江西省平均与暴雨日大气整层可降水量（Total Column Water Vapour，TCWV）分布特征，并确定了有助于预测江西区域性暴雨的TCWV阈值。结果表明：江西省暴雨日的TCWV呈现出明显的时空差异，月平均TCWV中12月、1月为20.0~36.0 mm，全年最低；7—8月可达64.0 mm以上，全年最高，主要集中在赣北和赣中的平原及丘陵地区。7—8月暴雨站点的月平均TCWV的中位数超过65.0 mm；8月最大值可达77.5 mm。暴雨期间，相关站点的TCWV在强降水前通常已达到或接近月平均值，强降水后下降至月平均值以下。暴雨日月平均TCWV值可作为预测该月江西区域性暴雨的阈值：若TCWV值接近或超过月平均值上限，极端降水发生的可能性增大。最大TCWV中心虽不完全与暴雨中心雨带位置重合，但通常位于其附近的高值区内，因此在强降水天气过程中，最大TCWV中心区域可作为预测暴雨雨带位置的重要参考。

关键词: 大气整层可降水量, 小时降水, 暴雨

CLC Number:

P426.6

ZHENG Lijun, XIAO An, LI Zhehua. Characterisation of total column water vapour in Jiangxi Province and its relationship with rainstorm[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(5): 755-766.

郑丽君, 肖安, 李浙华. 江西大气整层可降水量特征及其与暴雨的关系[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(5): 755-766.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig.1 The topograhy and spatital distribution of 93 national meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi Province

Fig.2 The spatial distribution of annual mean TCWV in Jiangxi Province during 1990-2022 （Unit： mm）（The thick solid line is the range of Jiangxi Province， the same as below）

Fig.3 The spatial distribution of mean TCWV in spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c), and winter (d) in Jiangxi Province during 1990-2022 (Unit: mm)

Fig.4 The spatial distribution of monthly mean TCWV in Jiangxi Province from January to December during 1990-2022 (Unit: mm)

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of annual mean TCWV on rainstorm day in Jiangxi Province during 1990-2022 （Unit： mm）

Fig.6 The spatial distribution of mean TCWV on rainstorm day in spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c), and winter (d) in Jiangxi Province during 1990-2022 (Unit:mm)

Fig.7 The spatial distribution of monthly mean TCWV on rainstorm day in Jiangxi Province from January to December during 1990-2022 (Unit: mm)

Fig.8 Monthly variation of the mean TCWV boxplot at stations during rainstorm day in Jiangxi Province during 1990-2022

Fig.9 Distributions of maximum TCWV (isolines, Unit: mm) and stations with rainstorm and heavy rainstorm from 20:00 on May 4 to 07:00 on May 5 (a), 08:00 to 19:00 on May 5 (b), 20:00 on May 5 to 07:00 on May 6 (c), 08:00 to 19:00 on May 6 (d), 2023 (The red arrows indicate the locations of Tonggu, Le An, Congren and Xinfeng station, respectively)

Fig.10 The hourly precipitation and TCWV of station from 20:00 on May 4 to 07:00 May 5 at Tonggu (a), 08:00 to 19:00 on May 5 at Le An (b), 20:00 on May 5 to 07:00 on May 6 at Chongren (c) and 08:00 to 19:00 on May 6 at Xinfeng (d), 2023 (The dotted lines represent the monthly mean TCWV of the stations)

Fig.11 Distributions of maximum TCWV (isolines, Unit: mm) and stations with rainstorm and heavy rainstorm from 08:00 to next 07:00 on June 22 (a), June 23 (b), June 24 (c), and July 22 (d), 2023, respectively (The red arrows indicate the location of Wuyuan, Yujiang, Lijiang and Pingxiang station, respectively)

Fig.12 The hourly precipitation and TCWV of station from 08:00 to next 07:00 on June 22 at Wuyuan (a), June 23 at Yujiang (b), June 24 at Lichuan (c), and July 22 at Pingxiang (d), 2023 (The dotted lines represent the monthly mean TCWV of the stations)

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