Study on forecasting method of spring snowmelt flood discharge in Xiying River Basin of Qilian Mountains

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2024-05-0776

Abstract

Abstract:

Spring snowmelt flood simulation and forecasting in the mountainous region has been a difficulty of cold region hydrological study. Current forecasting studies mainly use complex snow melt energy balance models, and take into account underlying surfaces such as frozen soil, vegetation, and runoff processes, resulting in complex model structures. This method needs a lot of data support and has a great uncertainty in prediction, which leads to difficulties in application in operational forecasting. In this paper, a simple and effective spring snowmelt flood forecasting method is established by using statistical methods and the snow depth observation data in winter of meteorological stations as well as a variety of snow remote sensing data in the Xiying River Basin, combined with the flood observation data of Jiutiaoling Hydrology Station on its control section. The study shows that the snow water equivalent information of the basin from MODIS snow cover products in March and April and the integration of microwave remote sensing snow depth products can well reflect the magnitude of spring snowmelt flood at Jiutiaoling Hydrological Station in the Xiying River Basin. This method provides a useful reference for snowmelt flood forecasting in other stable snow cover areas.

Key words: snowmelt flood, flood forecasting, MODIS, snow depth, Xiying River

摘要：

山区春季融雪洪水模拟及预报是寒区水文研究的难点，目前的预报模型主要采用复杂的积雪消融能量平衡模型，并考虑了冻土、植被等下垫面和产汇流过程，导致模型结构复杂，并且这种方法在预报中需要大量的数据支撑，在业务预报中应用困难，同时预测结果也具有很多不确定性。本文利用西营河流域冬季气象站点雪深观测资料与多种积雪遥感数据，结合其控制断面九条岭水文站洪水观测资料，利用统计学方法建立简单有效的春季融雪洪水预报方法。研究表明，利用3—4月MODIS积雪遥感产品以及融合微波遥感雪深产品的流域雪水当量信息能够很好地反映西营河九条岭水文站春季融雪洪水大小。这种预报方法可为其他稳定积雪区的融雪洪水预报提供有益的借鉴。

关键词: 融雪洪水, 洪水预报, MODIS, 雪深, 西营河

CLC Number:

P456

ZHAO Chengxian, LUO Jianhua, WANG Xueliang, DANG Zhiying, QI Jinxian, LIU Junfeng, HAN Chuntan. Study on forecasting method of spring snowmelt flood discharge in Xiying River Basin of Qilian Mountains[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(5): 776-783.

赵成先, 罗建华, 王学良, 党志英, 祁进贤, 刘俊峰, 韩春坛. 祁连山西营河流域春季融雪洪峰流量趋势预报方法研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(5): 776-783.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1 Overview of the study area

Fig.2 The scatter diagram between maximum peak flood discharge in spring and daily runoff at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station

Fig.3 Statistical relationship between daily mean runoff at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station and air temperature from March to May

Fig.4 The statistical relationship between maximum daily runoff at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station in May and the accumulated snow depth from November to next April at Mengyuan (a) and Wushaoling (b) meteorological stations

Fig.5 Trends in spring temperature, average annual snow water equivalent （a）, and snowpack area （b） in the Xiying River Basin since 2001

Tab.1 Relationship between MODIS snow cover area and maximum daily runoff in different months in spring at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station

最大日径流时段	MODIS积雪面积时段	统计公式	拟合决定系数（R²）
5月	1—2月	$Q m =$ 2.098 1e^{0.001 9}^S	0.15
5月	3月	$Q m$ =4.278 5e^-8E-04^S	0.01
5月	4月	$Q m$ =8.300 9e^{0.001 7}^S	0.21
5月	3—4月	$Q m = 8.91 e 0.003 4 S$	0.75
4月	4月	$Q m = 6.322 8 e 0.006 4 S$	0.43

Tab.1 Relationship between MODIS snow cover area and maximum daily runoff in different months in spring at Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station

最大日径流时段	MODIS积雪面积时段	统计公式	拟合决定系数（R²）
5月	1—2月	$Q m =$ 2.098 1e^{0.001 9}^S	0.15
5月	3月	$Q m$ =4.278 5e^-8E-04^S	0.01
5月	4月	$Q m$ =8.300 9e^{0.001 7}^S	0.21
5月	3—4月	$Q m = 8.91 e 0.003 4 S$	0.75
4月	4月	$Q m = 6.322 8 e 0.006 4 S$	0.43

Fig.6 Statistical relationships between maximum daily runoff of Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station and the average snow-covered area in April (a) and between maximum daily runoff in May and the average snow-covered area from March to May (b) and from March to April (c)

Fig.7 Statistical relationships between maximum daily runoff of Jiutiaoling Hydrologic Station in March and snow water equivalent from January to February (a), between maximum daily runoff and snow water equivalent in April (b) and between maximum daily runoff in May and snow water equivalent from March to April (c)

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