Abstract:

In order to evaluate the applicability of the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model for edible sunflower in the Hetao Irrigation Region and realize the dynamic simulation of local sunflower growth process, the initial variable perturbation method was used to conduct a sensitivity analysis on crop parameters of the WOFOST model, and the sunflower crop parameters in the WOFOST model were calibrated based on the observed data of the experiment of sunflower sowing by stages in 2012 at Bayannur Agrometeorological Experiment Station. Furthermore, the simulation effect of the model was verified by combining the observational data from the sunflower water control experiment in the same year, the sunflower variety comparison experiment data from 2005 to 2009, and the sunflower agricultural meteorological observation data from 2005 to 2023. The model parameters for sunflower were obtained, including the specific leaf area at each growth stage, the maximum CO₂ assimilation rate, the single-leaf photosynthetic efficiency, and the effective accumulated temperature and so on. The results show that the average absolute deviation (AD) of the numbers of days from emergence to flowering and flowering to maturity was less than 3 days, and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) was less than 8.00%. The AD of leaf area index (LAI) was 0.31 m²·m^-2, and the NRMSE was 27.96%. The ranges of AD of dry weight of living leaves (WLV), stems (WST), storage organs (WSO), total above ground production (TAGP) and yield were 254.04-682.97 kg·hm^-2, and the NRMSE were 9.16%-26.37%. The localized WOFOST model can reflect the development process changes of sunflowers, the expansion of leaf area and the accumulation process of biomass in the Hetao Irrigation Region, which has high simulation accuracy and a promising application prospect.

Key words: the WOFOST model, the Hetao Irrigation Region, sunflower, applicability assessment

摘要： 为评价世界粮食研究（World Food Studies，WOFOST）模型对河套灌区食用向日葵的适用性，实现当地向日葵生长过程的动态模拟，使用初始变量扰动法对WOFOST模型参数进行敏感性分析，结合河套灌区巴彦淖尔农业气象试验站2012年向日葵分期播种试验观测资料对WOFOST模型进行参数校准，并进一步结合同年向日葵水分控制试验观测资料、2005—2009年向日葵品比试验数据和2005—2023年向日葵农业气象观测资料对模型的模拟效果进行验证，获得向日葵模型参数，包括各发育阶段比叶面积、最大CO₂同化率、单叶光能利用率及有效积温等。结果表明，模拟的出苗—开花期天数、开花—成熟期天数绝对偏差平均值（Average Absolute Deviation，AD）小于3 d，归一化均方根误差（Normalized Root Mean Squared Error，NRMSE）小于8.00%；叶面积指数（Leaf Area Index，LAI）的AD为0.31 m²·m^-2，NRMSE为27.96%；模拟叶重（Dry Weight of Living Leaves，WLV）、茎重（Dry Weight of Living Stems，WST）、贮存器官生物量（Dry Weight of Living Storage Organs，WSO）、地上生物量（Total above Ground Production，TAGP）及产量的AD为254.04~682.97 kg·hm^-2，NRMSE为9.16%~26.37%。参数校准后的模型能够反映河套灌区向日葵的发育进程变化、叶面积扩展及生物量累积过程，模拟精度较高，具有良好的应用前景。

关键词: WOFOST模型, 河套灌区, 向日葵, 适用性评价