J4 ›› 2006, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 55-59.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇


张天??天锋1 王位泰1,2王锡稳3 邱宁??宁刚1赵建厚4   

  1. 1. 甘肃省庆阳市气象局,甘肃 庆阳 745000;2. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃 兰州 730020;
    3. 兰州中心气象台,甘肃 兰州 730020;4. 甘肃省镇原县气象局,甘肃 镇原 744500
  • 收稿日期:2005-06-08 修回日期:2005-08-16 出版日期:2006-06-30 发布日期:2006-06-30
  • 作者简介:张天锋(1969 - ),甘肃庆阳人,工程师,主要从事气象业务管理工作.
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局2005 年青年科技基金项目“地质灾害分析与预报方法研究”(2004201)资助

The Status and Meteorological Prediction of Geological Calamity in Qingyang City

ZHANG Tian - feng1,WANG Wei - tai1,2,WANG Xi - wen3,QIU Ning - gang1,ZHAO Jian - hou4   

  1. 1. Qingyang Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Qingyang 745000,Gansu,China;
    2. Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA,Lanzhou 730020,china;
    3. Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020,china;
    4. Zhenyuan County Meteorological Station of Gansu Province,Zhenyuan 744500,Gansu,China
  • Received:2005-06-08 Revised:2005-08-16 Online:2006-06-30 Published:2006-06-30



关键词: 气象, 地质灾害, 预报, 方法


The geographic character and climatic condition,the sort and spatial - temporal distribution of geological calamity in Qingyang city of Gansu province were analyzed in this paper,and the relation between geological calamity and precipitation there was discussed,and based on that,the meteorological monitoring and forecasting model was established by using discriminance and experience analysis method. Results show that the precipitation is the main reason resulting in geological calamity there,particularly the strong convective rainfall and continued rain events,July and August are the geological calamity high occurring period,and accurate weather forecast combined with the local geological condition will play an important role in geological calamity forecast

Key words: meteorology, geological calamity, forecast, method