近60 a中国极端天气气候事件变化趋势及2023年特征分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-04-0536

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

对不同区域极端天气气候事件变化规律的研究，有助于提高我国防灾减灾能力和有效应对气候变化风险。利用我国均一化的2 254个气象观测站逐日观测资料，分析评估近60 a和2023年我国及其各区域（未包含港澳台地区）发生的极端高温、极端低温、极端干旱、极端降水和极端台风等极端天气气候事件（简称“极端事件”）的时空特征。结果表明，1961年以来，我国极端事件总体呈下降趋势，其中1970—1990年代初下降趋势明显，1990年代后期以来增加趋势明显；极端高温事件呈显著增加趋势，进入21世纪后增加趋势更加明显；极端低温事件呈减少趋势；极端降水事件总体呈增加趋势；极端干旱事件呈下降趋势且阶段性特征明显；近60 a来受台风影响出现的极端风速和降水事件呈减少趋势，主要由极端台风风速事件减少造成，而极端台风降水事件呈缓慢上升趋势。2023年我国极端事件每站平均发生139次，比气候平均值偏多28.3%。其中，极端高温事件平均发生79次（偏多76.8%），为1961年以来历史最多年；极端低温事件平均发生20次（偏少23.8%）；极端降水事件平均发生14次，极端干旱事件平均发生26次，都接近常年平均值；极端台风事件平均发生0.41次（偏多4.2%），主要以极端台风降水事件为主。2023年极端事件主要出现在西南地区、江南西部、华南西部、西北地区中部和北部、内蒙西部、京津冀等地，其中四川东部、贵州南部、甘肃西部、内蒙西部等地超过200次。极端事件增多的主要原因是极端高温事件和极端干旱事件增多。综合等级指数分析表明，极端事件高危险区域主要位于南方地区，特别是东南沿海地区，近60 a综合等级指数增加的区域主要位于西南地区到东北地区南部这个过渡带上。2023年高危险区域主要出现在西南地区和西北地区中北部。

关键词: 近60 a, 2023年, 中国, 区域, 极端天气气候事件

Abstract:

In order to find out the change rules of extreme climatic events in China and its different regions, the extreme weather and climate events ( short for “extreme events”) such as extreme high temperature, extreme low temperature, extreme precipitation, extreme drought and extreme typhoon were analyzed by using the daily observation data of 2 254 meteorological observation stations in China (except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) over the past 60 years and in 2023. The results show that since 1961, the overall trend of extreme events in China has been decreasing, and the trend of decreasing from 1970 to the early 1990s was obvious, and the trend of increasing since the late 1990s was obvious. The extreme high temperature events showed a significant increasing trend, which was more obvious after entering the 21st century. Extreme low temperature events showed a decreasing trend. Extreme precipitation events showed an increasing trend in general. The extreme drought events showed a decreasing trend with obvious stage characteristics. In recent 60 years, the extreme wind speed and precipitation events affected by typhoons showed a decreasing trend, which was mainly caused by the decrease of extreme typhoon wind speed events, while the extreme typhoon precipitation events showed a slow increasing trend. The extreme events occurred frequently in 2023, with an average occurrence of 139 times per station, which was 28.3% more than the annual average from 1991 to 2020. Extreme high temperature events were 79 times per station, which was the most since 1961 and 76.8% more than normal average. Extreme low temperature events were 20 times per station, which was 23.8% less than normal average. Extreme precipitation events were 14 times per station, and extreme drought events were 26 times per station, both were close to the annual average values. Extreme typhoon events occurred 0.41 times on average in China, which was slightly more than normal average, and it was mainly dominated by extreme typhoon precipitation events. In 2023, extreme events mainly occurred in Southwest China, western areas of the south of the Yangtze River, western South China, central and northern Northwest China, western Inner Mongolia, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other places. Especially in eastern Sichuan, southern Guizhou, western Gansu, western Inner Mongolia, the extreme events were more than 200 times per station. Through the analysis of different types of extreme events in 2023, it was found that the increase of extreme events was mainly caused by more extreme high temperature and extreme drought events. According to the analysis of multiple extreme events composite risk index (MXCI), high risk areas were mainly located in the southern region of the mainland of China, especially in the southeast coastal region. In the past 60 years, the increase of MXCI was mainly located in the transition zone from Southwest China to south Northeast China. High risk areas in 2023 mainly appeared in the Southwest China and the central and northern parts of Northwest China. Through the study of the change rules of extreme events in different regions of China, it was helpful to improve the ability of disaster prevention and reduction and effectively cope with the risk of climate change.

Key words: the recent 60 years, 2023, China, regions, extreme weather and climate events

中图分类号:

P461

张存杰, 张思齐, 宁惠芳. 近60 a中国极端天气气候事件变化趋势及2023年特征分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(4): 536-552.

ZHANG Cunjie, ZHANG Siqi, NING Huifang. Trends of extreme weather and climate events in China in recent 60 years and their characteristics in 2023[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(4): 536-552.

图/表 14

图1 中国气象站点分布及区域划分注:基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS ( 2019 ) 1786号的标准地图制作，底图无修改，下同。

Fig. 1 The meteorological stations distribution and regional division in China

表1 极端事件的判别指标和含义

Tab.1 Discriminant index and meaning of different extreme events

序号	指标名称	指标含义
1	极端高温事件	日最高气温超过第90个百分位的阈值
2	极端低温事件	日最低气温不超过第10个百分位的阈值
3	极端干旱事件	过去90 d的SPI值达到重旱以上程度
4	极端降水事件	3 d降水量超过第90个百分位的阈值，且3 d降水量不低于30 mm
5	极端台风降水事件	台风日降水量超过第90个百分位的阈值
6	极端台风风速事件	台风日最大风速超过第90个百分位的阈值

图2 1961—2023年我国多个极端事件综合（a）、极端高温和极端低温（b）、极端降水和极端干旱（c）、极端台风风速和降水（d）事件年发生次数变化及线性趋势

Fig.2 Annual change curves and linear trends of occurring numbers of multiple extreme events （a）， extreme high-temperature and low-temperature events （b）， extreme drought events and extreme precipitation events （c）， extreme typhoon wind speed events and extreme typhoon precipitation events and the sum of them （d） during 1961-2023 in China

图3 1961—2023年华东地区极端事件综合（a）、极端高温和极端低温（b）、极端降水和极端干旱（c）、极端台风风速和降水（d）事件年发生次数变化及线性趋势

Fig.3 Annual change curves and linear trends of occurring numbers of multiple extreme events （a）， extreme high-temperature and low-temperature events （b）， extreme drought events and extreme precipitation events （c）， extreme typhoon wind speed events and extreme typhoon precipitation events and the sum of them （d） during 1961-2023 in East China

图4 1961—2023年华南地区极端事件综合（a）、极端高温和极端低温（b）、极端降水和极端干旱（c）、极端台风风速和降水（d）事件年发生次数变化及线性趋势

Fig.4 Annual change curves and linear trends of occurring numbers of multiple extreme events （a）， extreme high-temperature and low-temperature events （b）， extreme drought and extreme precipitation events （c）， extreme typhoon wind speed events and extreme typhoon precipitation events and the sum of them （d） during 1961-2023 in South China

图5 1961—2023年华中地区极端事件综合（a）、极端高温和极端低温（b）、极端降水和极端干旱（c）、极端台风风速和降水（d）事件年发生次数变化及线性趋势

Fig.5 Annual change curves and linear trends of occurring numbers of multiple extreme events （a）， extreme high-temperature and low-temperature events （b）， extreme drought events and extreme precipitation events （c）， extreme typhoon wind speed events and extreme typhoon precipitation events and the sum of them （d） during 1961-2023 in Central China

图6 1961—2023年西南地区极端事件综合（a）、极端高温和极端低温（b）、极端降水和极端干旱（c）、极端台风风速和降水（d）事件年发生次数变化及线性趋势

Fig.6 Annual change curves and linear trends of occurring numbers of multiple extreme events （a）， extreme high-temperature and low-temperature events （b）， extreme drought events and extreme precipitation events （c）， extreme typhoon wind speed events and extreme typhoon precipitation events and the sum of them （d） during 1961-2023 in Southwest China

图7 1961—2023年东北地区极端事件综合（a）、极端高温和极端低温（b），极端干旱（c）及极端降水（d）事件年发生次数变化及线性趋势

Fig.7 Annual change curves and linear trends of occurring numbers of multiple extreme events （a）， extreme high-temperature and low-temperature events （b）， extreme drought events （c） and extreme precipitation events （d） during 1961-2023 in Northeast China

图8 1970—2023年华北地区极端事件综合（a）、极端高温和极端低温（b），极端干旱（c）及极端降水（d）事件年发生次数变化及线性趋势

Fig.8 Annual change curves and linear trends of occurring numbers of multiple extreme events （a）， extreme high-temperature and low-temperature events （b）， extreme drought events （c） and extreme precipitation events （d） during 1970-2023 in North China

图9 1961—2023年西北地区极端事件综合（a）、极端高温和极端低温（b），极端干旱（c）及极端降水（d）事件年发生次数变化及线性趋势

Fig.9 Annual change curves and linear trends of occurring numbers of multiple extreme events （a）， extreme high-temperature and low-temperature events （b）， extreme drought events （c） and extreme precipitation events （d） during 1961-2023 in Northwest China

图10 2023年我国极端事件发生次数（a）及其距平（b）的空间分布

Fig.10 The spatial distribution of occurring numbers of all extreme events in 2023 （a） and its anomaly compared to the average values during 1991-2020 （b） in China

图11 2023年我国极端高温（a、b）、极端低温（c、d）、极端降水（e、f）事件发生次数（a、c、e）及其距平（b、d、f）的空间分布

Fig.11 The spatial distribution of occurring numbers (a, c, e) in 2023 and anomalies ( b, d, f) of extreme high temperature events (a, b), extreme low temperature events (c, d), extreme precipitation events (e, f) compared to the average values during 1991-2020 in China

图12 2023年我国极端干旱事件（a、b）与极端台风事件（c、d）发生次数（a、c）及其距平（b、d）的空间分布

Fig.12 The spatial distribution of occurring numbers in 2023 (a, c) and their anomalies (b, d) of extreme drought events (a, b) and extreme typhoon events (c, d) compared to the average values during 1991-2020 (b) in China

图13 1991—2020年我国平均极端事件综合等级指数(MXCI)分布（a）及1961—2023年MXCI线性趋势（b），2023年MXCI（c）及其距平（d）的空间分布

Fig.13 The spatial distributions of annual average MXCI in China from 1991 to 2020 （a）, the linear trend of MXCI from 1961 to 2023 （b）, the MXCI in 2023 （c） and its anomaly （d） in China

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