青藏高原夏季风和北半球夏季季节内振荡对中国西南地区雨季旱涝的影响及协同作用

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-04-0577

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国西南地区旱涝变化受多种天气系统影响，青藏高原夏季风(Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon，QTPSM)和北半球夏季季节内振荡(boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation，BSISO)等次季节系统的强弱都会导致中国西南地区雨季旱涝变化，但目前这2个系统的协同作用机制尚缺乏系统性研究。因此，本文利用1981—2020年美国国家海洋与大气管理局气候预报中心日降水量和美国国家环境预报中心日再分析资料等，采用青藏高原季风指数(QTPM index，QTPMI)和BSISO指数，分析QTPSM和BSISO对中国西南地区雨季旱涝的影响及协同作用机制。结果表明：(1)QTPSM的强度与中国西南地区雨季降水量呈反相关，活跃阶段的QTPSM(active QTPSM，AQ)抑制西南地区降水，抑制阶段的QTPSM(inactive QTPSM，IAQ)促进西南地区降水。(2)在BSISO第一模态的5、6相位和第二模态的3、4相位期间，中国西南地区雨季极端降水发生概率增大;而在BSISO第一模态的2、3相位和第二模态的6、7相位期间，中国西南地区雨季极端降水发生概率减小。(3)在协同作用中，BSISO第二模态的6、7相位和QTPSM组合对中国西南地区雨季旱涝影响最大，降水正距平分布范围最广;当BSISO相位与AQ组合转为与IAQ组合时，中国西南地区雨季降水正距平大值区由北部转为南部。(4)在AQ组合相位中，中国西南地区雨季对流层中层盛行东南风，低层东西两侧均为“一高一低”的环流配置，促使印度洋、西太平洋水汽输送至西南地区北部，形成水汽辐合区;在IAQ组合相位中，中国西南地区雨季对流层中层盛行偏北风，低层受强气旋环流控制，促使印度洋水汽持续输送至西南地区南部，形成水汽辐合带。

关键词: 青藏高原夏季风, 北半球夏季季节内振荡, 协同影响, 中国西南地区雨季旱涝变化

Abstract:

The change of drought and flood in southwestern China is affected by many weather systems. The intensity change of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon (QTPSM) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) sub-seasonal system will lead to change of drought and flood in rainy season of southwestern China, but the systematic research on synergy of the two systems on precipitation was scarce at present. Therefore, based on the daily precipitation data from Climate Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and daily reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 1981-2020, etc., we analyze the individual and joint influence mechanism of QTPSM and BSISO on drought and flood in rainy season of southwestern China by using the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau monsoon index (QTPMI) and BSISO index. The results are as follows: (1) The intensity of QTPSM is negatively correlated with precipitation in rainy season of southwestern China, and the active QTPSM (AQ) inhibits precipitation, while the inactive QTPSM (IAQ) promotes precipitation. (2) The probability of extreme precipitation in rainy season of southwestern China increases at 5 and 6 phase of the first mode and 3 and 4 phase of the second mode of BSISO, while that of extreme precipitation decreases at 2 and 3 phase of the first mode and 6 and 7 phase of the second mode of BSISO. (3) At the combined stage of 6 and 7 phase of the second mode of BSISO with QTPSM, their joint influence on drought and flood in rainy season of southwestern China is the greatest, and the positive anomalous distribution of precipitation is the widest. When BSISO phase combining with AQ changes to IAQ, the large value area of positive precipitation anomaly shifts from north to south of southwestern China. (4) At the combined phases of AQ in rainy season, the southeast winds prevail in the middle troposphere over southwestern China, and the circulation configuration in lower troposphere with “one high and one low” controls on the east and west sides of southwestern China, which urges water vapor from the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific to transport the north of southwestern China, and forms water vapor convergence area. By contrast, at the combined phases of IAQ, the northerly winds prevail in middle troposphere over southwestern China, and the strong cyclone controls in lower layer, which leads water vapor from the Indian Ocean to transport persistently into the south of southwestern China, and forms the water vapor convergence zone.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibeteau Plateau summer monsoon, boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, joint influence, change of drought and flood in rainy season of southwestern China

中图分类号:

P461

马萌萌, 左洪超, 李立程, 段济开. 青藏高原夏季风和北半球夏季季节内振荡对中国西南地区雨季旱涝的影响及协同作用[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(4): 577-588.

MA Mengmeng, ZUO Hongchao, LI Licheng, DUAN Jikai. Individual and joint influence of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on drought and flood in rainy season of southwestern China[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(4): 577-588.

图/表 9

图1 1981—2020年中国西南地区雨季平均降水量分布(a，单位：mm·d-1)和日降水时间序列平均功率谱(b)

Fig.1 The distribution of mean precipitation (a， Unit： mm·d-1) and mean power spectra of daily precipitation time series (b) in rainy season of southwestern China from 1981 to 2020

图2 1981—2020年中国西南地区雨季QTPMI的平均功率谱(a)和不同相位平均降雨量箱线图(b) [箱线图从下至上的值依次对应为第5(下限)、第25(下四分位)、中位数、第75(上四分位)和第95(上限)百分位。下同]

Fig.2 Mean power spectra of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon index (a) and box plot of mean precipitation at different phases of the QTPMI (b) in rainy season of southwestern China from 1981 to 2020 (The value of box plot from bottom to top are the 5th (lower bound)， 25th (lower quartile)， median， 75th (upper quartile) and 95th (upper bound) percentiles， respectively. the same as below)

图3 BSISO1(a)和BSISO2(b)模态不同相位中国西南地区平均降雨量箱线图

Fig.3 The box plots of mean precipitation in southwestern China at different phases of BSISO1 (a) and BSISO2 (b) mode

表1 1981—2020年中国西南地区雨季QTPSM与BSISO组合事件发生次数

Tab.1 The times of combined events of QTPSM with BSISO in rainy season of southwestern China from 1981 to 2020

组合	简称	次数/次
AQ与BSISO12&13	B1-23-AQ	38
AQ与BSISO15&16	B1-56-AQ	41
AQ与BSISO23&24	B2-34-AQ	46
AQ与BSISO26&27	B2-67-AQ	32
IAQ与BSISO12&13	B1-23-IAQ	35
IAQ与BSISO15&16	B1-56-IAQ	40
IAQ与BSISO23&24	B2-34-IAQ	53
IAQ与BSISO26&27	B2-67-IAQ	30

图4 1981—2020年QTPSM和BSISO组合相位期间中国西南地区雨季平均降水量

Fig.4 The mean precipitation in rainy season of southwestern China at different combined phase stages of QTPSM and BSISO from 1981 to 2020

图5 1981—2020年QTPSM和BSISO组合期间中国西南地区雨季降水量距平(单位：mm·d-1)(a)B1-23-AQ，(b)B1-23-IAQ，(c)B1-56-AQ， (d)B1-56-IAQ，(e)B2-34-AQ，(f)B2-34-IAQ，(g)B2-67-AQ， (h)B2-67-IAQ

Fig.5 Precipitation anomaly in rainy season of southwestern China at different combined phase stages of QTPSM and BSISO from 1981 to 2020 (Unit： mm·d-1)(a) B1-23-AQ， (b) B1-23-IAQ， (c) B1-56-AQ， (d) B1-56-IAQ， (e) B2-34-AQ，(f) B2-34-IAQ， (g) B2-67-AQ， (h) B2-67-IAQ

图6 1981—2020年AQ组合相位期间中国西南地区雨季的500 hPa(a、c、e、g)、850 hPa(b、d、f、h)高度场(填色区，单位：dagpm)和风场(箭头，单位： m·s-1)距平合成(网格填色区域和箭头均通过α=0.05的显著性检验，红色方框包围区域为中国西南地区。下同)(a、b)B1-23-AQ，(c、d)B1-56-AQ，(e、f)B2-34-AQ，(g、h)B2-67-AQ

Fig.6 Composites of 500 hPa (a， c， e， g)， 850 hPa (b， d， f， h) geopotential height field (color shaded areas， Unit： dagpm) and wind field (arrows， Unit： m·s-1) anomaly in rainy season of southwestern China during the combined AQ from 1981 to 2020 (The color grid areas and arrows pass the significance test at 0.05 level， and the area enclosed by the red box is the southwestern China. the same as below) (a， b) B1-23-AQ， (c， d) B1-56-AQ， (e， f) B2-34-AQ， (g， h) B2-67-AQ

图7 1981—2020年IAQ组合相位期间中国西南地区雨季的500 hPa(a、c、e、g)、850 hPa(b、d、f、h)高度场(填色区，单位：dagpm)和风场(箭头，单位：m·s-1)距平合成 (a、b)B1-23-IAQ，(c、d)B1-56-IAQ，(e、f)B2-34-IAQ，(g、h)B2-67-IAQ

Fig.7 Composites of 500 hPa (a， c， e， g)， 850 hPa (b， d， f， h) geopotential height field (color shaded areas， Unit： dagpm) and wind field (arrows， Unit： m·s-1) anomaly in rainy season of southwestern China during the combined IAQ from 1981 to 2020 (a， b) B1-23-IAQ， (c， d) B1-56-IAQ， (e， f) B2-34-IAQ， (g， h) B2-67-IAQ

图8 1981—2020年QTPSM和BSISO组合相位期间中国西南地区雨季整层水汽通量散度(填色区，单位：10-5 kg·m-2·s-1)和850 hPa水汽通量(箭头，单位：kg·hPa-1·m-1·s-1)距平场合成 (a)B1-23-AQ，(b)B1-23-IAQ，(c)B1-56-AQ，(d)B1-56-IAQ，(e)B2-34-AQ，(f)B2-34-IAQ，(g)B2-67-AQ，(h)B2-67-IAQ

Fig.8 Composites of integrated water vapor flux divergence (color shaded areas， Unit： 10-5 kg·m-2·s-1) and 850 hPa water vapor flux (arrows， Unit： kg·hPa-1·m-1·s-1) anomaly fields in rainy season of southwestern China at different combined phase stages of QTPSM and BSISO from 1981 to 2020 (a) B1-23-AQ， (b) B1-23-IAQ， (c) B1-56-AQ， (d) B1-56-IAQ， (e) B2-34-AQ， (f) B2-34-IAQ， (g) B2-67-AQ， (h) B2-67-IAQ

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