秋季巴伦支海海冰与中国京津冀地区2月气温变化的联系

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0187

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用中国京津冀地区94个气象台站气温观测资料以及美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心联合制作的再分析资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局海冰密集度资料,采用经验正交函数分解、相关分析、回归分析、合成分析等方法,研究冬季气候变暖背景下近32 a中国京津冀地区Feb_4-20(2月4—20日)平均气温异常与前期秋季北极海冰异常的关系,探讨秋季巴伦支海海冰影响中国京津冀地区Feb_4-20气温的可能机制。结果表明:(1)1988/1989年冬季是中国京津冀地区冬季变暖的突变点,暖背景下Feb_4-20气温第一模态呈空间一致变化型,其时间系数年际变化特征明显;(2)秋季巴伦支海、喀拉海和东西伯利亚海关键区海冰密集度与中国京津冀地区Feb_4-20气温存在显著正相关,可作为Feb_4-20气温预测的前兆信号;(3)秋季巴伦支海关键区多(少)冰年,其冬季海冰也偏多(少),为持续冷(热)源,在欧亚大陆对流层中高层激发出负(正)位相的斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型分布,西伯利亚高压偏弱(强),欧亚中高纬近地面多为南(北)风异常,东亚114°E—119°E范围45°N附近为异常上升(下沉)气流,使得中国京津冀地区自地面至对流层顶Feb_4-20气温偏高(低),显著暖(冷)异常区随高度升高逐渐减小并向北倾斜。

关键词: 京津冀地区, Feb_4-20气温, 秋季海冰, 巴伦支海, 可能影响机制

Abstract:

Based on temperature observation data at 94 meteorological stations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, reanalysis data of National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), sea ice concentration data of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the relationship between average temperature anomaly from 4 to 20 February (Feb_4-20) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China under the background of winter climate warming from 1989 to 2020 and Arctic sea ice anomaly in previous autumn was analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation, regression, synthesis analysis methods, etc. And on this basis, the possible influencing mechanism of autumn sea ice in the Barents Sea on Feb_4-20 temperature anomaly in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was investigated. The results are as follows: (1) The warming mutation of winter temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China occurred in 1988/1989. The first mode of Feb_4-20 temperature decomposed by EOF appeared the same anomaly in whole area from 1989 to 2020, and the inter-annual change characteristic of corresponding time coefficients was obvious. (2) The sea ice concentration in the key areas of the Barents Sea, Kara Sea and east Siberia Sea in autumn was significantly and positively correlated with Feb_4-20 average temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, which could be used as a precursor signal of Feb_4-20 temperature anomaly prediction. (3) When the sea ice was anomalous more (less) in the key areas of the Barents Sea in autumn, the sea ice was also more (less) in winter, the Barents Sea was a continuous cold (heat) source, the negative (positive) phase distribution of Scandinavian teleconnection was excited in middle and high layer of troposphere over Eurasia, the Siberian high was weaker (stronger), the anomalous southerly (northerly) wind dominated near surface in middle and high latitude of Eurasia, and the anomalous updraft (downdraft) controlled near 45°N over 114°E-119°E of East Asia, which were beneficial to Feb_4-20 temperature abnormally high (low) from surface to tropopause in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, and the significant warm (cold) anomalous area decreased and inclined to the north with the rise of height.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, temperature from 4 to 20 February, sea ice in autumn, the Barents Sea, possible influencing mechanism

中图分类号:

张国宏. 秋季巴伦支海海冰与中国京津冀地区2月气温变化的联系[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(2): 187-194.

ZHANG Guohong. Relationship between autumn sea ice in the Barents Sea and change of temperature in February in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(2): 187-194.

图/表 7

图1 1961—2019年中国京津冀地区冬季平均气温年际变化及M-K突变检验

Fig.1 Inter-annual change and M-K abrupt test of winter mean temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China from 1961 to 2019

图2 中国京津冀地区Feb4-20气温标准化距平场EOF分解的第一模态空间分布(a)及其时间系数(b) (圆点为气象站点)

Fig.2 The spatial distribution (a) of the first mode of temperature standardized anomaly field from 4 to 20 February decomposed by EOF and its time coefficient (b) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China (the dots for meteorological stations)

图3 去趋势后的中国京津冀地区Feb4-20气温PC1与秋季北极海冰密集度的相关系数分布 (填色区由浅到深分别通过α=0.10、0.05、0.01的显著性检验;绿色线围的填色区为巴伦支海显著正相关区)

Fig.3 The distribution of correlation coefficients between detrended PC1 of temperature from 4 to 20 February in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China and Arctic sea ice concentration in autumn (The colour shaded areas from shallow to deep passed the significance tests at 0.10, 0.05 and 0.01 level, respectively; the colour shaded areas enclosed by green line are the significantly positive correlation areas of the Barents Sea)

图4 秋季巴伦支海关键区海冰密集度指数Iicec序列(a)及其与中国京津冀地区Feb4-20气温的相关系数分布(b) (相关系数为0.35和0.45的填色区分别通过α=0.05、0.01的显著性检验)

Fig.4 The time series of autumn sea ice concentration index Iicec in the key areas of the Barents Sea (a) and its correlation coefficient distribution with temperature from 4 to 20 February in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China (b) (The shaded areas with 0.35 and 0.45 correlation coefficients passed the significance tests at 0.05 and 0.01 level, respectively)

图5 Feb4-20中国京津冀地区气温PC1与海平面气压场(等值线)、风场[通过α=0.10及以上显著性检验的箭头(下同)](a)和500 hPa高度场(c)的相关系数(a、c)以及秋季巴伦支海关键区Iicec回归的Feb4-20海平面气压场(等值线,单位:hPa)、风场(箭头,单位:m·s-1)(b)和500 hPa高度场(d,单位:dagpm)距平(b、d) (红色方框为西伯利亚高压关键区,填色区由浅至深分别通过α=0.10、0.05、0.01的显著性检验)

Fig.5 Correlation coefficient (a, c) between PC1 of temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and sea level pressure field (contours), wind field (arrows with the significance tests of 0.10 level and above (the same as below)) from 4 to 20 February (a) and 500 hPa geopotential height field (c), and anomaly field (b, d) of sea level pressure field (contours, Unit: hPa), wind field (arrows, Unit: m·s-1) (b) and 500 hPa geopotential height field (d, Unit: dagpm) from 4 to 20 February regressed by Iicec in the key areas of the Barents Sea in autumn (The red box is the key area of the Siberian high; the colour shaded areas from shallow to deep passed the significance tests at 0.10, 0.05 and 0.01 level, respectively)

图6 秋季巴伦支海多冰年(a)与少冰年(b)欧亚中高纬冬季地表感热通量距平(单位:kW·m-2)

Fig.6 Anomaly of winter surface sensible heat flux in Eurasia mid-high latitude in autumn ice more (a) and less (b) year in the Barents Sea (Unit: kW·m-2)

图7 秋季北极海冰关键区多冰年与少冰年114°E—119°E范围平均Feb4-20气温(a,单位: K)和经向环流(b,单位: m·s-1,垂直速度扩大100倍)差值的纬度-高度剖面 (填色区由浅到深分别通过α=0.10、0.05、0.01的显著性检验)

Fig.7 The altitude-height cross sections of average air temperature (a, Unit: K) and meridional circulation (b, Unit: m·s-1, the vertical velocity multiplied by 100) difference over 114°E-119°E from 4 to 20 February in autumn ice more and less year in the key areas of North Pole (The colour shaded areas from shallow to deep passed the significance tests at 0.10, 0.05 and 0.01 level, respectively)

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