Abstract:

Based on the monthly and annual precipitation data from 1956 to 2010 at Shuozhou meteorological observation station，the variation of annual precipitation，the precipitation anomaly during the critical period ( April － September) and the seasonal precipitation  anomaly in recent 55 years in Shuozhou of Shanxi Province were analyzed by using statistical and linear analysis methods． The result indicated that the annual precipitation of declined with the rate of 9． 1 mm/10 a，and the precipitation anomaly during the critical period
declined with the rate of 2． 5 mm/10 a． In addition，it presented wet trend in winter and drought tendency in spring and summer． There were15 dry years in 55 years，and in which 5 years were severe drought years． Finally，some measures to deal with agriculture drought were put forward in this paper．

Key words: meteorological drought, trend analysis

摘要：

利用山西朔州观测站1956 ～ 2010 年逐月降水量资料，应用统计方法和线性分析法进行统计分析。通过对近55 a 朔州市年降水量变化趋势、关键期( 4 ～ 9 月) 降水距平变化趋势以及4 季降水距平变化趋势的分析，得出朔州市年降水量总体呈9． 1 mm/10 a 的下降趋势; 关键期降水距平呈2． 5mm/10 a 的下降趋势。而且冬季有向湿润化发展的倾向，春季和夏季呈干旱发展趋势。55 a 来朔州出现干旱年15 a，其中有5 a 为重旱年。

关键词: 气象干旱, 趋势分析, 防御措施