Abstract:

Heavy rainfalls and floods, waterlogging triggered by rainstorms are one of the most serious natural disasters in Ningxia. This paper constructs an integrated rainstorm hazard risk warning model in Ningxia to effectively predict the risk of heavy rainfall and issue risk warnings in advance, by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi method, and considering four factors including hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster mitigation capacity, the model incorporates 14 evaluation indicators such as population, economy, elevation, and vegetation etc. in Ningxia. Combined with GIS technology, a rainstorm event simulation was conducted. The results show that the model comprehensively and objectively reflected integrated risk distribution during rainstorms. The analysis of the rainstorm on July 10, 2022 indicated that the regions with the highest hazard were Jinfeng District and Xixia District of Yinchuan, Litong District of Wuzhong, Qingtongxia County, eastern Yanchi County, and Yuanzhou District of Guyuan; the highest exposure was in Yinchuan; the highest vulnerability was in western Qingtongxia, Tongxin County, Haiyuan County, Xiji County, and Pengyang County; the weakest disaster mitigation capacity was in Haiyuan County, and the highest integrated risk areas were Jinfeng District of Yinchuan, Litong District of Wuzhong, Haiyuan and Xiji County. Integrating the model with smart grid forecasting, the integrated rainstorm hazard risk can be calculated, which provides scientific basis for precise prevention in practical operations.

Key words: rainstorm, comprehensive risk, warning model, Ningxia

摘要：

暴雨及其引发的洪涝、积涝是宁夏最严重的自然灾害之一。构建宁夏暴雨综合灾害风险预警模型有效预估暴雨风险并提前发布风险预警具有重要意义。采用层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）和专家调查法（Delphi），综合考虑危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个因子，构建由宁夏人口、经济、高程、植被等14项评价指标组成的宁夏暴雨综合灾害风险预警模型，并结合GIS技术，对1次暴雨个例进行模拟。结果表明，该模型因素全面，能客观地反映暴雨过程的综合风险等级分布。2022年7月10日的暴雨过程分析显示，危险性最高的区域为银川市金凤区、西夏区，吴忠市利通区，青铜峡及盐池县东部和固原市原州区；暴露性最高的区域为银川市区；脆弱性最高的区域为青铜峡西部、同心县、海原县、西吉县和彭阳县；防灾减灾能力最弱的区域为海原县；综合风险最高的区域为银川市金凤区、吴忠市利通区、海原县和西吉县。通过将该模型与智能网格预报结合，可计算即将发生的暴雨综合灾害风险等级，从而为实际业务中的精准防范提供科学依据。

关键词: 暴雨, 综合风险, 预警模型, 宁夏