The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Forecasting Method of Precipitation in Heihe Field

J4 ›› 2005, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (2): 35-38.

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The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Forecasting Method of Precipitation in Heihe Field

CAO Ling, DOU Yong-xiang

Zhangye Meteorological Bureau, Zhangye 734000, Gansu , China

Received:2004-07-30 Revised:2005-01-30 Online:2005-06-30 Published:2005-06-30

黑河流域降水的时空特征及预报方法

曹玲，窦永祥

甘肃省张掖市气象局.甘肃张掖 734000

作者简介:曹玲（1963-)，女，甘肃临泽县人，工程师，从事天气预报和应用研究工作.E-mxil:zycaoling88@163.com
基金资助:
甘肃省科技攻关计划:西北干旱成因及其应用’( CGS012-A45-118)项目，干旱气象科学研究基金（TAM 200414)共同资助

Abstract

Abstract:

In this paper, using annual precipitation data of 13 stations during 1960 to 2000, characteristics of spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Heihe field are analyzed and division of climate district is done with EOF and REOF methods. Tendency of annual pTCClpltatlOn In Helhe filled 1S Stlldled by LISlng linear tendency eStlmatlOn. On the base Of ahOVe analySlS, pTCClpltatlOn Can he pTedlCted In each dlVlded area and In dlffeTent SeaSOn .T1ITOLIgh Inarl}lng eXalnlmng, It haS reached CCI'taln rate Of aCCLITaCy. The TCSlllt of predlchon Is stahle,dependable and avallahle.

Key words: Heihe Field, precipitation, spatial and temporal characteristics, forecast method

摘要：

应用1960-2000年黑河流域13个站41 a的年降水资料，通过EOF和REOF方法分析了黑河流域年降水的空间分布特征，并进行气候分区;采用线性倾向估计研究黑河流域年降水的变化趋势。在以上分析的基础上，进行流域分区、分季节降水预报。经评分检验，达到了一定的准确率，预报效果稳定、可靠，具有一定的实用价值。

关键词: 黑河流域, 降水, 时空特征, 预报方法

CLC Number:

P457.6

CAO Ling, DOU Yong-Xiang. The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Forecasting Method of Precipitation in Heihe Field[J]. J4, 2005, 23(2): 35-38.

曹玲, 窦永祥. 黑河流域降水的时空特征及预报方法[J]. J4, 2005, 23(2): 35-38.

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The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Forecasting Method of Precipitation in Heihe Field

黑河流域降水的时空特征及预报方法

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