Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 143-151.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-01-0143

• Technical Reports • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Comprehensive assessment of influencing factors of precipitation real-time analysis products in Sichuan

WU Wei1,2(), HUANG Xiaolong1,2, XU Xiaoli1,2, LI Shiying1,2, DU Bing1,2, JIANG Yuhe1,2   

  1. 1. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observation and Data Centre, Chengdu 610072, China
    2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
  • Received:2021-09-23 Revised:2022-04-05 Online:2023-02-28 Published:2023-02-28

四川省降水实况分析产品影响因素综合评估

吴薇1,2(), 黄晓龙1,2, 徐晓莉1,2, 李施颖1,2, 杜冰1,2, 蒋雨荷1,2   

  1. 1.四川省气象探测数据中心,四川 成都 610072
    2.高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川 成都 610072
  • 作者简介:吴薇(1981—),女,高级工程师,主要从事资料处理与应用。E-mail:25155177@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    四川省科技厅重点研发计划项目(2022YFS0541);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202221);中国气象局创新发展专项项目(CXFZ2021Z007);西南区域多源融合实况产品研究创新团队项目(西南气中﹝2018﹞13号)

Abstract:

Based on multi-source observation data and data fusion and assimilation technology, National Meteorological Information Center has developed and released real-time analysis products that has passed the industry admittance review. In order to ensure the objectivity and authenticity of the evaluation results of the real-time analysis products, the representativeness of the data source—ground station data participating in the inspection and evaluation of the products was studied. 10 precipitation impact indicators such as longitude and latitude, slope, slope direction and data availability of ground meteorological stations from May to August 2020 were selected. On the basis of indicator screening, the weight of each impact indicator to form a comprehensive impact indicator of each station was determined by using correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and grading inspection of the comprehensive impact indicator were conducted. The results show that five of the 10 impact indicators are retained after screening, and their weights from large to small are data availability, equipment stability, slope variability, surface roughness and altitude. The comprehensive impact value of stations in Sichuan Basin is mostly above 0.9, and the stations with low comprehensive impact values are mainly distributed in Ganzi, Aba and Liangshan prefectures of Sichuan Province, which is closely related to the complex terrain and poor representativeness of station in these areas. Through the grading evaluation of the comprehensive impact index, it is reasonable to take the data of stations with the comprehensive impact index value above 0.8 as the "true value" data source for the evaluation of precipitation real-time analysis products.

Key words: precipitation, real-time analysis products, principal component analysis, assessment

摘要:

国家气象信息中心基于多源观测数据,利用数据融合与同化技术研制的实况分析产品已通过业务准入评审并发布。为保证实况分析产品评估结果的客观性和真实性,对参与实况分析产品检验评估的数据源——地面站点资料的代表性进行研究。选取2020年5—8月四川省地面气象站点经度、纬度、坡度、坡向、数据可用性等10个降水影响指标,利用相关分析、主成分分析,在指标筛选基础上,通过确定各影响指标的权重,形成各地面站点的综合影响指标,并对其进行分级检验。结果表明:10个影响指标经过筛选保留5个指标,其权重从大到小依次为数据可用性、设备稳定性、坡度变率、地表粗糙度、海拔高度;四川盆地内站点综合影响指标值大部分在0.9以上,综合影响指标值较低的站点主要分布在四川省甘孜州、阿坝州和凉山州,这与上述区域地形复杂、站点代表性较差密切相关;通过综合影响指标的分级评估,将指标值在0.8以上的站点数据作为降水实况分析产品评估的“真值”数据源较合理。

关键词: 降水, 实况分析产品, 主成分分析, 评估

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