干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 605-612.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-04-0605

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于信息熵的海南岛降水随机性变化特征

邹海平1,2(), 张京红1,2, 陈小敏1,2, 李伟光1,2, 白蕤1,2, 吕润1,2   

  1. 1. 海南省气候中心,海南 海口 570203
    2. 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南 海口 570203
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-05 修回日期:2021-11-04 出版日期:2022-08-31 发布日期:2022-09-21
  • 作者简介:邹海平(1987—),男,江西吉安人,高级工程师,主要从事农业气象灾害评估研究. E-mail: google2456@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    海南省自然科学基金项目(417300);国家重点研发计划课题(2019YFD1002203)

Change characteristics of precipitation randomness in Hainan Island based on information entropy

ZOU Haiping1,2(), ZHANG Jinghong1,2, CHEN Xiaomin1,2, LI Weiguang1,2, BAI Rui1,2, LÜ Run1,2   

  1. 1. Hainan Provincial Climate Center, Haikou 570203, China
    2. Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203, China
  • Received:2021-06-05 Revised:2021-11-04 Online:2022-08-31 Published:2022-09-21

摘要:

利用海南岛18个气象站1969—2018年逐日降水观测数据,采用信息熵法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和反距离权重空间插值方法,分析海南岛降水随机性的时空变化特征。结果表明:海南岛年降水量和降水日数月分配的不均匀性由东向西逐渐增大。近50 a来,北部、西部及南部部分地区年降水量和降水日数月分配的不均性增强,其余地区总体减弱。海南岛年和四季日降水量随机性空间分布各异,且与暴雨及以上等级降水日数占比均呈显著正相关。时间变化上,海南岛绝大部分市(县)年和四季日降水量随机性增大,尤其表现在四季强降水发生概率增加。春、夏、秋、冬季需依次重点防范中部、西北部、东部和东部地区的暴雨至特大暴雨。

关键词: 降水, 随机性, 信息熵, 强度熵, 分配熵

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data at 18 meteorological stations of Hainan Island from 1969 to 2018, the spatio-temporal change characteristics of precipitation randomness were analyzed by using information entropy method, Mann-Kendall trend test and spatial interpolation technique of inverse distance weight. The results show that the uneveness of monthly apportionment of annual precipitation and precipitation days increased from east to west of Hainan Island. In recent 50 years, the monthly apportionment unevenness of annual precipitation and precipitation days showed an increasing trend in northern and western areas and part areas of southern Hainan Island, while it showed a decreasing trend in the rest areas on the whole. The spatial distribution of randomness of daily precipitation was significantly different in the whole year and four seasons in Hainan Island, and they were significantly and positively correlated with the proportion of rainstorm and above rainfall days. In terms of time, the randomness of daily precipitation in the whole year and four seasons increased in most cities (counties) of Hainan Island from 1969 to 2018, especially the probability of strong precipitation increased in four seasons. The rainstorms to torrential rains in central, northwestern, eastern and eastern Hainan Island should be paid enough attention in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively.

Key words: precipitation, randomness, information entropy, intensity entropy, apportionment entropy

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