干旱气象 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1): 91-102.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-01-0091

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同边界层参数化方案对台风“烟花”北上阶段暴雨模拟的影响试验

邢蕊1,2(), 杨健博1,3(), 田梦1,3, 邱晓滨1,3, 庄庭4, 朱晓晶2   

  1. 1.天津市海洋气象重点实验室,天津 300074
    2.天津市滨海新区气象局,天津 300457
    3.天津市气象科学研究所,天津 300074
    4.天津市气象探测中心,天津 300061
  • 收稿日期:2022-05-10 修回日期:2022-10-25 出版日期:2023-02-28 发布日期:2023-02-28
  • 通讯作者: 杨健博(1989—),男,博士,高级工程师,主要从事大气边界层数值模拟及相关研究。E-mail: iamyjb.happy@163.com
  • 作者简介:邢蕊(1985—),女,博士,高级工程师,主要从事台风和灾害性天气高分辨率数值模拟的研究。E-mail:nuistxr@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    天津市海洋气象重点实验室开放基金项目(2022TKLOM05);天津市自然科学基金项目(20JCYBJC00780);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM202112);天津市气象局科研项目(202114zdxm01);天津市气象局科研项目(202115dgxm04);天津市气象局科研项目(202226dgxm05)

Effect of different boundary layer parameterization schemes on simulation of the heavy rainfall during Typhoon In-Fa(2106) moving northward period

XING Rui1,2(), YANG Jianbo1,3(), TIAN Meng1,3, QIU Xiaobin1,3, ZHUANG Ting4, ZHU Xiaojing2   

  1. 1. Tianjin Key Laboratory of Oceanic Meteorology, Tianjin 300074, China
    2. Tianjin Binhai New Area Meteorological Service, Tianjin 300457, China
    3. Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Science, Tianjin 300074, China
    4. Tianjin Meteorological Observation Centre, Tianjin 300061, China
  • Received:2022-05-10 Revised:2022-10-25 Online:2023-02-28 Published:2023-02-28

摘要:

边界层参数化方案是造成数值模式预报误差的重要来源之一,筛选适用于环渤海地区台风暴雨模拟的边界层参数化方案,可为该地后续业务应用及科研工作提供参考依据。应用WRFV4.3模式中的8种边界层参数化方案(ACM2、BouLac、GBM、MYJ、MYNN、QNSE、UW、YSU),对2021年第6号台风“烟花”北上阶段造成的暴雨过程进行数值模拟试验,对比分析不同边界层参数化方案对暴雨模拟结果的影响,并基于ERA5资料进行边界层热动力结构的模拟效果检验。结果表明:(1)各方案对台风北上阶段的降水(24 h累积降水量、累积降水极值和位置、降水ETS评分、小时最大降水量以及逐小时10.0、20.0 mm降水的落区分布)模拟结果表现出明显差异,对路径的模拟差异主要体现在模拟时段的中后期。(2)局地闭合的BouLac方案对于10.0 mm以上量级24 h累积降水量的ETS评分表现最优,而非局地ACM2方案所模拟的24 h累积降水量在25.0、50.0、100.0 mm以上量级降水的ETS评分均为最优,且累积降水极值、区域平均24 h累积降水量以及小时最大降水量均值等也与ERA5资料较为接近,在环渤海地区海陆共存的下垫面背景下,ACM2方案是最适合台风“烟花”暴雨过程模拟的参数化方案。(3)与其他方案相比,ACM2方案对于边界层高度、位温和水汽混合比垂直廓线的模拟与实况最接近,这是ACM2方案对大雨以上量级预报较为准确的原因。(4)各方案模拟的700 hPa垂直速度基本决定了小时最大降水量的变化趋势以及区域平均24 h累积降水量的相对大小。

关键词: 边界层参数化方案, 北上台风, 暴雨, 2021年第6号台风“烟花”

Abstract:

Boundary layer parameterization scheme is one of the most important sources of numerical model predict error. Selecting the suitable planetary boundary layer parameter scheme for the simulation of the Bohai costal area typhoon rainstorm can provide reference for the subsequent business application and scientific research in this area. Eight planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes (ACM2, BouLac, GBM, MYJ, MYNN, QNSE, UW, YSU) in the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRFV4.3) are used to simulate the torrential rain caused by northward Typhoon In-Fa (2106). The discrepancies of the simulated torrential rain based on the different schemes are compared, and the simulated PBL thermo-dynamical structure are examined based on ERA5 data. The results are as follows: Firstly, the simulated typhoon rainfall (including 24 h accumulated rainfall, the maximum and position of the accumulated rainfall, equitable threat scores, the hourly maximum rain and the rainfall areas of 10.0 mm and 20.0 mm precipitation per hour) during the typhoon northward period present significant difference, and the simulated track difference mainly occurred in the middle-late simulation period. Secondly, the local closure scheme-BouLac test has the best equitable threat scores for the 24 h accumulated rainfall above 10.0 mm, while the non-local closure scheme-ACM2 simulated the accumulated rainfall above 25.0, 50.0 and 100.0 mm best, which has the highest equitable threat score compared to the other PBL parameterization schemes. In addition, simulation results of the ACM2 scheme show the maximum accumulated rainfall, 24 h accumulated rainfall averaged on a region and mean hourly maximum rainfall are closest to ERA5 data. Therefore, the ACM2 scheme is best suitable for the torrential rain simulation of Typhoon In-Fa (2106) under the background of the land-sea coexistence in the Bohai coastal region. Thirdly, compared to the other PBL parameterization schemes, the ACM2 scheme has the simulation results which are closest to real-time for the height of PBL, the profiles of potential temperature and water vapor mixing ratio. This is why the ACM2 scheme is more accurate in forecasting the heavy rainfall and the rain magnitude above it. Finally, the strength of the 700 hPa vertical movement simulated by the eight PBL schemes has an important effect on the northward typhoon precipitation, which basically determines the change trend of the hourly maximum precipitation and the relative magnitude of the regional average 24-hour cumulative precipitation.

Key words: planetary boundary layer parameter scheme, northward typhoon, torrential rain, Typhoon In-Fa (2106)

中图分类号: