Spatial-temporal characteristics of drought in recent 50 years in Guangdong Province based on SPEI

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639（2022）-06-1051

Abstract

Abstract:

It is important to understand drought characteristics in Guangdong Province to reduce losses caused by drought. The monthly precipitation and temperature from 86 national meteorological stations in Guangdong Province from 1971 to 2020 are used to calculate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at different time scales. Mann-Kendall trend test, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) methods are applied to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of drought in Guangdong Province in recent 50 years. The results show that the significant declining trend of annual scale SPEI indicates that drought is getting worse. Seasonal scale SPEI also shows a worse trend of drought but the trend is not significant. The occurring frequency of drought in Guangdong Province is high but the intensity of drought is weak. The first mode of EOF of annual scale SPEI shows that the whole Guangdong has experienced an evolution trend of drought or flood, and the corresponding time coefficient shows that Guangdong Province has a worse drought trend, which is closely related to the sea surface temperature in the east-central equatorial Pacific. The second mode of EOF of annual scale SPEI is closely related to the western Pacific subtropical high. The third mode of EOF of annual scale SPEI is significantly related to the land-sea contrasts. The ESMD analysis shows that the average annual scale SPEI is dominated by a 3.1-year period at inter-annual timescales and a 12.5-year period at the inter-decadal timescales. In addition, the trend residual R also indicates drought trend in Guangdong Province. In summary, the trend of drought in Guangdong Province is gradually prominent, which is characterized by high frequency and weak intensity of drought.

Key words: drought, Mann-Kendall trend test, EOF, ESMD, Guangdong Province

摘要：

了解广东省干旱特征对于减少旱灾损失具有重要意义。基于1971—2020年广东省86个国家气象观测站逐月降水量和气温资料，计算不同时间尺度的标准降水蒸散指数（standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index，SPEI），利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、经验正交函数（empirical orthogonal function，EOF）以及极点对称模态分解（extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition，ESMD）等方法，分析近50 a广东省干旱时空变化特征。结果表明：广东省年尺度SPEI整体呈较明显下降趋势，即干旱化趋势，四季也呈干旱化趋势，但并不明显。广东省干旱发生频率较高，但强度较低。EOF第一模态反映广东省存在一致变旱或变涝特征，其与赤道太平洋中东部海表温度关系更为密切，时间系数反映出广东省整体呈干旱化趋势；第二模态与西太平洋副热带高压关系较为密切；第三模态则与海陆差异有明显关联。ESMD分析表明广东省平均年尺度SPEI在年际上以3.1 a周期振荡为主，在年代际上以12.5 a周期振荡为主，趋势余量R反映广东省具有干旱化趋势。广东省整体有较明显干旱化趋势，干旱发生频率较高，但强度较低。

关键词: 干旱, Mann-Kendall趋势检验, EOF, ESMD, 广东省

CLC Number:

P462.2

YU Xingzhan, PU Yiliang, KANG Boqian. Spatial-temporal characteristics of drought in recent 50 years in Guangdong Province based on SPEI[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(6): 1051-1058.

余兴湛, 蒲义良, 康伯乾. 基于SPEI的广东省近50 a干旱时空特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(6): 1051-1058.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1 Distribution of 86 national meteorological observation stations and topography in Guangdong Province

Tab.1 Drought grades classification based on SPEI

SPEI	干旱等级
-1.0 $<$ SPEI≤-0.5	轻旱
-1.5 $<$ SPEI≤-1.0	中旱
-2.0 $<$ SPEI≤-1.5	重旱
SPEI≤-2.0	特旱

Tab.1 Drought grades classification based on SPEI

SPEI	干旱等级
-1.0 $<$ SPEI≤-0.5	轻旱
-1.5 $<$ SPEI≤-1.0	中旱
-2.0 $<$ SPEI≤-1.5	重旱
SPEI≤-2.0	特旱

Fig.2 Mann-Kendall trend coefficients of SPEI at different time scales (a, b, c, d, e) and inter-annual variation of annual scale SPEI (f) in Guangdong Province during 1971-2020

Fig.3 The spatial distribution of drought frequency (a， Unit: %) and drought intensity (b) in Guangdong Province during 1971-2020

Tab.2 Contribution rates of the first five modes of EOF decomposition of annual scale SPEI in Guangdong Province during 1971-2020

模态	方差贡献率/%	累计方差贡献率/%
EOF1	51.62	51.62
EOF2	11.49	63.11
EOF3	6.40	69.51
EOF4	4.36	73.87
EOF5	2.50	76.37

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of the first three modes (a, c, d) and the time coefficient of the first mode (b) of EOF decomposition of annual scale SPEI in Guangdong Province during 1971-2020

Tab.3 The correlation between time coefficients of EOF1, EOF2 and El Ni?o strength indexes, western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） indexes

时间系数	厄尔尼诺强度指标				西太平洋副热带高压指标
时间系数	Niño 1+2区	Niño 3区	Niño 4区	Niño 3.4区	面积	强度	脊线位置	西伸脊点
PC1	0.33^**	0.24^**	0.02	0.18^**	0.05	0.06	-0.04	-0.04
PC2	0.09^*	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.13^**	0.12^**	0.04	0.11^**

Fig.5 The annual variation of modal components and trend margin of ESMD decomposition of annual scale SPEI in Guangdong Province during 1971-2020

Tab.4 The period and variance contribution rate of each modal component of ESMD decomposition of annual scale SPEI in Guangdong Province during 1971-2020

模态分量	周期/a	方差贡献率/%
IMF1	3.1	47.33
IMF2	7.1	20.04
IMF3	12.5	18.07
IMF4	16.7	4.61
趋势余量R	无	9.95

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