A Composite Index of Daily Extreme Precipitation in China Based on Stochastic Resort Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2012, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 149-157.

A Composite Index of Daily Extreme Precipitation in China Based on Stochastic Resort Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

HOU Wei¹，QIAN Zhonghua²，YANG Ping³，FENG Guolin¹

1． National Climate Center，Beijing 100081，China; 2． College of Atmospheric Sciences，Lanzhou University，
Lanzhou 730000，China; 3． Training Center of China Meterological Administration，Beijing 100089，China

Received:2011-12-20 Revised:2012-04-06 Online:2012-06-30 Published:2012-06-30

基于随机重排去趋势波动分析的全国极端日降水事件综合指标

侯威¹ ，钱忠华² ，杨萍³ ，封国林¹

1．国家气候中心，北京100081; 2．兰州大学大气科学学院，甘肃兰州730000;
3．中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京100089

作者简介:侯威( 1981 － ) ，男，江苏扬州人，博士，高级工程师，主要从事气候变化及极端天气气候事件研究． E － mail: houwei@ cma． gov． cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金( 41005043) 、全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划( 2012CB955901) 和科技支撑项目( 2009BAC51B04) 共同资助

Abstract

Abstract:

By combining detrended fluctuation analysis ( DFA) method with surrogate data method，and using the heuristic segmentation algorithm as well as Chi － Square statistics，the stochastically re － sorting detrended fluctuation analysis( S － DFA) method was developed to define the threshold of extreme events． By using S － DFA method，we obtained the thresholds of extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2006 in China and analyzed its spatial － temporal distribution characteristics． We also validated the effectiveness of S －DFA method through extreme events detection by using precipitation series． The composite index of extreme precipitation events wasgiven in this paper，which integrated the information about frequency and strength of extreme precipitation events，considering the characteristic of regional climate system． Based on the composite index，we divided into three zones according to different precipitation rank of extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2006 in China． The composite index of extreme precipitation maintained smooth fluctuation with no obvious increasing or decreasing trend on the whole during 1961 － 2006 in Chine．

Key words: stochastic resort detrended fluctuation analysis, extreme precipitation event, threshold, composite index

摘要：

将去趋势波动分析法( Detrended Fluctuation Analysis，DFA) 和替代数据法相结合，同时引入启发式分割算法和卡方检验，提出了一种确定极端气候事件阈值的新方法，称为随机重排去趋势波动分析( Stochastic resort detrended Fluctuation Analysis，S － DFA) 方法。同百分位阈值方法相比，S － DFA方法明确指出了极端事件和非极端事件之间的临界值。利用随机重排去趋势波动分析( S － DFA) 方法计算并分析了中国极端降水事件阈值的空间分布特征，并对S － DFA 方法在实际资料中的应用进行了检验。基于极端降水事件综合指标将中国1961 ～ 2006 年间极端降水事件分为3 个不同等级的地区，进一步发现我国1961 ～ 2006 年间极端降水的综合指标整体没有表现出明显的上升或下降趋势，保持平稳的波动变化。

关键词: 随机重排去趋势波动分析, 极端降水事件, 阈值, 综合指标

CLC Number:

P467

侯威,钱忠华，杨萍,封国林. 基于随机重排去趋势波动分析的全国极端日降水事件综合指标[J]. 干旱气象, 2012, 30(2): 149-157.

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