Abstract:

The geographic character and climatic condition，the sort and spatial - temporal distribution of geological calamity in Qingyang city of Gansu province were analyzed in this paper，and the relation between geological calamity and precipitation there was discussed，and based on that，the meteorological monitoring and forecasting model was established by using discriminance and experience analysis method. Results show that the precipitation is the main reason resulting in geological calamity there，particularly the strong convective rainfall and continued rain events，July and August are the geological calamity high occurring period，and accurate weather forecast combined with the local geological condition will play an important role in geological calamity forecast

Key words: meteorology, geological calamity, forecast, method

摘要：

通过分析庆阳市地理气候特点，地质灾害的类别及其时空分布特征，探讨地质灾害与降水的规律，依据地质灾害与气象条件的定量关系，采用判别和经验分析的方法建立了庆阳市地质灾害的气象监测、预报模型。

关键词: 气象, 地质灾害, 预报, 方法