Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 146-155.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-01-0146
• Technology and Applications • Previous Articles Next Articles
LIU Na(), HUANG Wubin(), YANG Jiancai, WANG Jixin, WANG Yicheng, ZHANG Junxia
Received:
2021-04-06
Revised:
2021-08-19
Online:
2022-02-28
Published:
2022-02-28
Contact:
HUANG Wubin
刘娜(), 黄武斌(), 杨建才, 王基鑫, 王一丞, 张君霞
通讯作者:
黄武斌
作者简介:
刘娜(1994— ),女,甘肃武威人,硕士,助理工程师,主要从事中短期天气预报及客观预报方法研究. E-mail: liunavip666@163.com。
基金资助:
CLC Number:
LIU Na, HUANG Wubin, YANG Jiancai, WANG Jixin, WANG Yicheng, ZHANG Junxia. Objective forecast method of short-term quantitative precipitation in Gansu Province based on SCTP-RF algorithm[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(1): 146-155.
刘娜, 黄武斌, 杨建才, 王基鑫, 王一丞, 张君霞. 基于SCTP-RF算法的甘肃省短期定量降水客观预报方法研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(1): 146-155.
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URL: http://www.ghqx.org.cn/EN/10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-01-0146
实况 | 预报 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
小雨 | 中雨 | 大雨 | 暴雨及以上 | |
小雨 | NA1 | NB2 | NB3 | NB4 |
中雨 | NC2 | NA2 | NB3 | NB4 |
大雨 | NC3 | NC3 | NA3 | NB4 |
暴雨及以上 | NC4 | NC4 | NC4 | NA4 |
Tab.1 The inspection and assessment of precipitation grades
实况 | 预报 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
小雨 | 中雨 | 大雨 | 暴雨及以上 | |
小雨 | NA1 | NB2 | NB3 | NB4 |
中雨 | NC2 | NA2 | NB3 | NB4 |
大雨 | NC3 | NC3 | NA3 | NB4 |
暴雨及以上 | NC4 | NC4 | NC4 | NA4 |
Fig.2 The objective partitions of precipitation in Gansu Province from April to September (a) April, (b) May, (c) June, (d) July, (e) August, (f) September
因 子 | 贡献率 | 因 子 | 贡献率 | 因 子 | 贡献率 | 因 子 | 贡献率 | 因 子 | 贡献率 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TP_CMA | 10.40 | RH200 | 5.40 | RH100 | 1.92 | GH500 | 0.62 | GH700 | 0.24 |
R | 10.21 | Q500 | 4.71 | CAPE | 1.75 | UV500 | 0.58 | T100 | 0.16 |
△H200 | 10.09 | T700 | 4.30 | △H500 | 1.34 | GH200 | 0.53 | T500 | 0.10 |
△H700 | 8.61 | | 4.12 | Q700 | 1.27 | UV100 | 0.52 | w100 | 0.06 |
Ro-3 h | 7.61 | w500 | 3.66 | △H700 | 1.27 | GH100 | 0.50 | T2 | 0.05 |
RH500 | 7.18 | w700 | 2.35 | △T200 | 0.83 | UV200 | 0.40 | ||
RH700 | 5.93 | w200 | 2.28 | △T500 | 0.63 | T200 | 0.38 |
Tab.2 The positive contribution factors to precipitation forecast model after the adjustment and their contribution rates
因 子 | 贡献率 | 因 子 | 贡献率 | 因 子 | 贡献率 | 因 子 | 贡献率 | 因 子 | 贡献率 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TP_CMA | 10.40 | RH200 | 5.40 | RH100 | 1.92 | GH500 | 0.62 | GH700 | 0.24 |
R | 10.21 | Q500 | 4.71 | CAPE | 1.75 | UV500 | 0.58 | T100 | 0.16 |
△H200 | 10.09 | T700 | 4.30 | △H500 | 1.34 | GH200 | 0.53 | T500 | 0.10 |
△H700 | 8.61 | | 4.12 | Q700 | 1.27 | UV100 | 0.52 | w100 | 0.06 |
Ro-3 h | 7.61 | w500 | 3.66 | △H700 | 1.27 | GH100 | 0.50 | T2 | 0.05 |
RH500 | 7.18 | w700 | 2.35 | △T200 | 0.83 | UV200 | 0.40 | ||
RH700 | 5.93 | w200 | 2.28 | △T500 | 0.63 | T200 | 0.38 |
降水预报 产品 | 08:00起报 | 20:00起报 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | ||
TP_CMA | 79.29 | 78.98 | 74.87 | 76.94 | 77.46 | 75.33 | |
ECMWF | 78.62 | 75.73 | 83.34 | 77.64 | 75.71 | 83.25 | |
SCTP-RF | 84.88 | 82.94 | 82.76 | 83.57 | 82.74 | 82.60 |
Tab.3 The accuracy of 3-hour rain probability forecast by TP_CMA, ECMWF and SCTP-RF products at different start predicting times from June to August 2020
降水预报 产品 | 08:00起报 | 20:00起报 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | ||
TP_CMA | 79.29 | 78.98 | 74.87 | 76.94 | 77.46 | 75.33 | |
ECMWF | 78.62 | 75.73 | 83.34 | 77.64 | 75.71 | 83.25 | |
SCTP-RF | 84.88 | 82.94 | 82.76 | 83.57 | 82.74 | 82.60 |
Fig.4 The skill score of 3-hour rain probability forecast by ECMWF and SCTP-RF products at 08:00 BST (a) and 20:00 BST (b) start predicting from June to August 2020
Fig.5 The accuracy spatial distribution of rain probability forecast by TP_CMA (a, b), ECMWF (c, d) and SCTP-RF (e, f) products at 08:00 BST (a, c, e) and 20:00 BST (b, d, f) start predicting from June to August 2020 (Unit: %)
降水等级 | 降水预报 产品 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08:00起报 | 20:00起报 | 08:00起报 | 20:00起报 | 08:00起报 | 20:00起报 | ||||
小雨 | TP_CMA | 18.54 | 17.48 | 18.56 | 19.41 | 20.96 | 21.13 | ||
ECMWF | 19.47 | 18.82 | 20.37 | 20.63 | 9.17 | 8.49 | |||
SCTP-RF | 20.81 | 18.94 | 19.29 | 20.50 | 13.69 | 13.68 | |||
中雨 | TP_CMA | 12.09 | 10.96 | 14.72 | 13.22 | 18.47 | 17.79 | ||
ECMWF | 15.44 | 16.28 | 16.75 | 17.00 | 21.05 | 19.94 | |||
SCTP-RF | 15.25 | 15.74 | 17.76 | 17.24 | 21.59 | 20.29 | |||
大雨 | TP_CMA | 7.97 | 6.67 | 6.84 | 6.33 | 10.00 | 12.08 | ||
ECMWF | 7.59 | 10.87 | 5.73 | 7.09 | 12.57 | 11.81 | |||
SCTP-RF | 8.74 | 10.61 | 7.32 | 8.39 | 12.24 | 12.88 | |||
暴雨及以上 | TP_CMA | 3.84 | 2.74 | 1.55 | 2.10 | 5.71 | 8.86 | ||
ECMWF | 5.51 | 10.06 | 2.89 | 3.07 | 8.15 | 6.40 | |||
SCTP-RF | 4.67 | 4.84 | 2.07 | 1.54 | 8.21 | 8.50 |
Tab.4 The threat scores of 3-hour precipitation with different grades of TP_CMA, ECMWF and SCTP-RF products at different start predicting times from June to August 2020
降水等级 | 降水预报 产品 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08:00起报 | 20:00起报 | 08:00起报 | 20:00起报 | 08:00起报 | 20:00起报 | ||||
小雨 | TP_CMA | 18.54 | 17.48 | 18.56 | 19.41 | 20.96 | 21.13 | ||
ECMWF | 19.47 | 18.82 | 20.37 | 20.63 | 9.17 | 8.49 | |||
SCTP-RF | 20.81 | 18.94 | 19.29 | 20.50 | 13.69 | 13.68 | |||
中雨 | TP_CMA | 12.09 | 10.96 | 14.72 | 13.22 | 18.47 | 17.79 | ||
ECMWF | 15.44 | 16.28 | 16.75 | 17.00 | 21.05 | 19.94 | |||
SCTP-RF | 15.25 | 15.74 | 17.76 | 17.24 | 21.59 | 20.29 | |||
大雨 | TP_CMA | 7.97 | 6.67 | 6.84 | 6.33 | 10.00 | 12.08 | ||
ECMWF | 7.59 | 10.87 | 5.73 | 7.09 | 12.57 | 11.81 | |||
SCTP-RF | 8.74 | 10.61 | 7.32 | 8.39 | 12.24 | 12.88 | |||
暴雨及以上 | TP_CMA | 3.84 | 2.74 | 1.55 | 2.10 | 5.71 | 8.86 | ||
ECMWF | 5.51 | 10.06 | 2.89 | 3.07 | 8.15 | 6.40 | |||
SCTP-RF | 4.67 | 4.84 | 2.07 | 1.54 | 8.21 | 8.50 |
Fig.6 The spatial distribution of skill score of 3-hour precipitation with different grades of SCTP-RF products at 08:00 BST (a, c, e, g) and 20:00 BST (b, d, f, h) start predicting from June to August 2020 (Unit: %) (a, b) light rain, (c, d) moderate rain, (e, f) heavy rain, (g, h) rainstorm
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