Abstract:

Based on daily area rainfall data, the heavy precipitation processes from 2013 to 2014 were found. Secondly, by using weather testing method, the inspection and evaluation of ECMWF model forecast product at reservoir dispatch key periods in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin were carried out. Results show that the forecast for the beginning and ending time of strong precipitation process and the forecast for rainstorm area were best in storage period. The forecast for moderate rain area was generally good in all key periods, but it was easy to miss report in sub basins such as Hengjiang, Wujiang, Yibin-Chongqing South, Chongqing-Wanzhou South and Wanzhou-Yichang. So, the correction of rainfall product in above ranges should be enhanced. The inspection of ECMWF circulation forecast showed that the deviation of weather system prediction was small within 3 days and large in 4-7 days, forecasters should expand on subjective initiative to model correcting.

Key words: ECMWF model , upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, precipitation forecast , circulation forecast

摘要：

普查2013—2014年发生在长江上游流域的强降水过程，采用天气学检验方法，基于ECMWF模式开展检验评估。结果表明：ECMWF模式预报强降水过程起止时间和暴雨以上量级落区均在蓄水期效果最好；预报中雨以上量级的落区在各关键期总体较好，但在横江、乌江、宜宾—重庆南部、重庆—万州南部、万州—宜昌等区间易局部漏报，应加强对上述区间模式降水产品的订正；预报影响降水过程的天气系统，3 d之内与实况偏差较小，4—7 d与实况偏差较大，需预报员发挥主观作用进行订正。

关键词: ECMWF模式, 长江上游流域, 降水预报, 环流形势预报