Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 125-134.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-01-0125

• Technology and Applications • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on correction of solar radiation forecast in Hexi region of Gansu Province based on short-term historical data

HAN Zifen1(), YAN Pengcheng2(), LI Yang3, LÜ Qingquan4, ZHANG Tiejun5, BIAN Hongwei3, WANG Yongzheng3, ZHANG Li2   

  1. 1. Power Dispatching Center of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730070, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province / Key Laboratoryof Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration,Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China
    3. Lanzhou Dafang Electronics Co., Ltd, Lanzhou 730050, China
    4. Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730070, China
    5. Baiyin Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province, Baiyin 730900, Gansu, China
  • Received:2020-11-30 Revised:2021-08-12 Online:2022-02-28 Published:2022-02-28
  • Contact: YAN Pengcheng

基于短期历史资料的河西地区太阳辐射预报订正研究

韩自奋1(), 颜鹏程2(), 李扬3, 吕清泉4, 张铁军5, 边宏伟3, 王永政3, 张莉2   

  1. 1.国网甘肃省电力公司电力调度中心,甘肃 兰州 730070
    2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730020
    3.兰州大方电子有限责任公司,甘肃 兰州 730050
    4.国网甘肃省电力公司电力科学研究院,甘肃 兰州 730070
    5.甘肃省白银市气象局,甘肃 白银 730900
  • 通讯作者: 颜鹏程
  • 作者简介:韩自奋(1976— ),男,甘肃民乐人,博士,正研级高级工程师,主要从事水电及新能源调度交易研究. E-mail: 7638403@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院开放基金(LPCC2019002);国家自然科学基金(42005056);国家自然科学基金(42005058);国家电网公司总部科技项目(SGHE000KXJS1700074);甘肃省气象局“西北区域数值预报创新团队”共同资助(GSQXCXTD-2020-02)

Abstract:

There are some systematic biases in prediction of solar radiation based on numerical models, the AVT method has been verified to reduce the prediction bias effectively. The AVT correction method was used to modify the forecasted solar radiation in two photovoltaic power plants in Hexi area of Gansu Province. The results state: (1) Before correction the forecast bias presented obviously diurnal variation with increase first and then decrease, while it wasn’t obvious after correction. There was a strong linear relationship between forecast deviation of solar radiation and observed values before correction, while it got weak after correction (the correlation coefficient and good fitting degree decreased). (2) There was obviously annual change characteristic of solar radiation with the highest forecast bias in spring, followed by summer, autumn and winter. After correction, its forecast bias was reduced in four seasons, especially in spring and summer.

Key words: Hexi area of Gansu Province, renewable, solar radiation forecast, correction

摘要:

基于数值模式的太阳辐射预报往往存在一定的系统性偏差,AVT订正方法能够有效降低预报偏差,本文利用该方法对甘肃河西地区两个光伏电站的太阳辐射预报结果进行订正。结果表明:(1)订正前预报偏差呈现明显的“先增加、后减小”日变化特征,订正后日变化特征不明显,并且订正前预报偏差与观测值线性关系显著,订正后线性关系减弱(相关系数降低、拟合优度降低);(2)太阳辐射存在明显的年变化特征,其预报偏差春季最高,其次为夏季,冬季最小,订正后不同季节的预报偏差均降低,春季和夏季降低较为明显。

关键词: 河西地区, 新能源, 太阳辐射预报, 订正

CLC Number: