J4 ›› 2005, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 12-16.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

"8 " 19”甘肃区域暴雨的特征分析及数值模拟

赵庆云狄潇乱张铁军   

  1. 兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020
  • 收稿日期:2005-07-22 修回日期:2005-09-27 出版日期:2005-12-31 发布日期:2005-12-31
  • 作者简介:赵庆石(1962一),女,甘肃兰州市人,高级工程师,主要从事天气气候的预报与研究.E-mail:zhaoqy_gs@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局气象科研项目“现实预报”(2005. 03)资助

Analysis and Numerical Simulation of the Heavy Rain in Gansu Province on 19 August 2004

 DIAO Qiang-Yun, DI Xiao-Luan, ZHANG Tie-Jun   

  1. (Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory Lanzhou 730020  China)
  • Received:2005-07-22 Revised:2005-09-27 Online:2005-12-31 Published:2005-12-31

摘要:

分析了“8.19;甘肃区域暴雨发生的天气气候背景,不同层次的环流特征;重点分析了不同物理量场的变化,云系的演变;应用MM5中尺度非静力模式模拟了暴雨过程,并对模拟结果进行了分析。结果表明:"8,19"甘肃区域暴雨除了有利的天气系统配置外,低层强烈的风场辐合是导致暴雨
的重要原因。强雨带的移动滞后于云顶温度最低的强对流云带;M M5对降水过程的强度、落区有较好的预报能力,尤其是12 - 48 h的预报效果相对最好,对强降水天气预报有较好的指示意义。

关键词: 暴雨, 影响系统, 云图分析, MM5数值模拟

Abstract:

 A regional heavy rain process o<(urged in Cansu province on 19 August in 2004 was analyzed from the weather and Climatic
background Circulation Characteristics as well as the(hange of different physical quantities and the evolution of the Cloud Cluster  at
the same time it was simulated by MM5.  Results show that the favorable weather(ondition and the(onvergenc;e of the low一level wind
are the main reasons of this heavy rain the moving of the heavy rain zone lagged the strong(onvec;tive(loud band on FY一2C hourly
satellite images. The simulated result indicates that MMS is available for forecasting the intensity and location of the rainfall partic;ular-
1y for 12一48 hours rainfall forec;asting} it has some signific;anc;e for forecasting strong rainfall events

Key words: heavy rain influence system,  , satellite(loud image analysis, numerical simulation

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