J4 ›› 2009, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 23-28.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

京津冀地区近47a降水量的变化特征

张 健章新平王晓云张剑明   

  1. 1.湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南长沙 410081;2.山东省青岛市气象局,山东 青岛 26600
  • 收稿日期:2008-11-09 修回日期:2009-01-20 出版日期:2009-03-31 发布日期:2009-03-30
  • 作者简介:张健(1981 - ) ,男,硕士,主要从事环境演变与自然灾害研究. E - mail: zhangjian0315@163. com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40871094; 40871043)和湖南省重点学科建设项目共同资助

Climatic Var ia tion of Precip ita tion in Be ijing, Tian jin and Hebe i in Recen t 47 Years

 ZHANG  Jian1, ZHANG Xin-Beng1, WANG Xiao-Yun2, ZHANG Jian-Meng1   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environm ent Sciences, Hu’nan N orm al University, Changsha 410081, China;
    2. Q ingdaoM eteorological B ureau of Shandong Province, Q ingdao 266003, China
  • Received:2008-11-09 Revised:2009-01-20 Online:2009-03-31 Published:2009-03-30

摘要:

利用线性回归、突变分析和小波分析方法,分析了京津冀地区1960~2006年84个地面台站降水量的变化。结果表明:47a来京津冀降水量呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-15mm/10a。除夏季外,其余季节降水量均呈增加趋势。由于华北地区夏季降水量集中了全年降水量的60% ~70%,所以夏季降水量的显著减少使得年平均降水量呈下降趋势;京津冀地区夏季降水量在1990年代初发生突变,其他季节降水量无突变现象;年和4季降水量大致存在4个周期的变化。

关键词: 京津冀, 降水, 突变分析, 小波分析

Abstract:

The change of p recip itation at 84 meteorological stations in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in recent 47 yearswas analyzed by using linear regression, abrup t change analysis and wavelet analysis in this article. The results showed that annual p recip itation decreased at a climatic tendency of - 15 mm /10 a, and the 11 - year runningmean curve indicated the trend would continue in the future. Precip itation in summerwas decreasing inmost of the areas, while increasing in the other seasons. The abrup t change occurred in summer p recip itation during the early 1990 s. Generally, both annual and seasonal p recip itation p resented four periodic change of three,
nine, fourteen and twenty - four years.

Key words: Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region, p recip itation, abrup t change, wavelet analysis