干旱气象 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 263-273.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-02-0263

• 新气象数据检验与订证 • 上一篇    下一篇

CMPAS融合产品在陕西短时强降水监测中的适用性评估

刘菊菊1,2(), 赵强1(), 井宇1, 张蔚然1, 戴昌明1   

  1. 1.陕西省气象台,陕西 西安 710014
    2.陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室,陕西 西安 710016
  • 收稿日期:2023-02-09 修回日期:2023-11-25 出版日期:2024-04-30 发布日期:2024-05-12
  • 通讯作者: 赵强(1981—),男,硕士,正高级工程师,主要从事天气预报研究。E-mail: zhaoq66@sina.com
  • 作者简介:刘菊菊(1991—),女,硕士,工程师,主要从事灾害性天气预报研究。E-mail: wwqxjljj@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JC-QN-0367);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z009);秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室面上项目(2022G-15)

Suitability assessment of CMA multi-source precipitation analysis products for short-term heavy rainfall monitoring in Shaanxi

LIU Juju1,2(), ZHAO Qiang1(), JING Yu1, ZHANG Weiran1, DAI Changming1   

  1. 1. Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory, Xi'an 710014, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Ecological and Environmental Meteorology of Qinling and Loess Plateau, Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau, Xi'an 710016, China
  • Received:2023-02-09 Revised:2023-11-25 Online:2024-04-30 Published:2024-05-12

摘要:

使用2016—2021年陕西省降水数据以及2018—2021年中国区域融合降水分析系统(CMA Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System,CMPAS-V2.1)的二源和三源融合降水分析实时产品,分析陕西省近6 a短时强降水的时空特征,并通过统计检验方法评估融合降水产品的准确性,为融合产品在短时强降水过程中的订正提供参考依据。结果表明:(1)陕西省短时强降水的最高频次出现在19:00(北京时,下同),强降水主要集中在16:00至次日02:00,且更多发生在6—8月。强降水极值在17:00至次日01:00和04:00—07:00相对较大。陕南地区短时强降水频次明显高于关中和陕北地区;陕北北部、关中东部以及陕南中东部的强降水极值相对更大。(2)两类降水产品的降水量均偏小。三源产品的平均绝对误差在陕北南部、关中大部和陕南南部地区较小,而其余地区二源产品较优。平均绝对误差随着降水量的增加而增大,对于20~50 mm的短时强降水,三源产品更为可靠,而对于50 mm以上的强降水,二源产品表现更佳。(3)两类产品平均绝对误差在13:00—19:00、23:00至次日01:00和04:00—06:00较大,在08:00—12:00、20:00—22:00和02:00—03:00较小,5—8月三源产品表现优于二源产品,而在9—10月二源产品较为可信。(4)降水量阈值降低时融合产品的准确性增加。三源融合产品在性能上优于二源;9—10月两类融合产品的降水量均优于5—8月。

关键词: 融合产品, 短时强降水, 评估, 陕西

Abstract:

Based on the precipitation data from Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2021 and real-time products of two-source and three-source precipitation from the CMA Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System (CMPAS-V2.1) during 2018-2021, the spatial and temporal characteristics of short-term heavy rainfall in Shaanxi Province over the past 6 years were analyzed. Furthermore, statistical tests were applied to evaluate the accuracy of the multi-source precipitation products, with the aim of providing reference for correction of multi-source precipitation products in short-term heavy rainfall processes. The results are as follows:(1) In Shaanxi Province, the short-term heavy rainfall frequency peak was at 19:00 pm, with heavy precipitation primarily occurring from 16:00 to 02:00 in a day and predominantly in the months of June to August. The diurnal extreme value of heavy rainfall shows relatively higher from 17:00 to 01:00 and from 04:00 to 07:00 in the morning. Short-term heavy rainfall is more frequent in southern Shaanxi compared to Guanzhong and northern Shaanxi. The regions with relatively larger extreme values include northern Shaanxi, eastern Guanzhong, and central-eastern of southern Shaanxi. (2) Both two types of precipitation products tend to underestimate precipitation compared to observed values. The mean absolute errors of the three-source product exhibit smaller in southern of northern Shaanxi, most part of Guanzhong and southern of southern Shaanxi, while the two-source product performs relatively better in other region.The mean absolute error increases with precipitation increase. For heavy precipitation ranging from 20 to 50 mm, three-source product is recommended, while two-source product is more suitable for heavy precipitation above 50 mm. (3) The diurnal variations in mean absolute errors for both two types of multi-source products are relatively larger from 13:00 to 19:00, 23:00 to 01:00 and from 04:00 to 06:00, and relatively smaller from 08:00 to 12:00, 20:00 to 22:00 and from 02:00 to 03:00. The three-source product outperforms two-source product from May to August, while two-source product performs better from September to October. (4) The accuracy rate of multi-source precipitation products increases as the threshold of short-term heavy rainfall decrease. Both mean absolute error and accuracy rate indicate that the three-source product outperforms two-source product. Multi-source precipitation products exhibit higher accuracy from September to October compared to May to August.

Key words: multi-source precipitation product, short-term heavy rainfall, assessment, Shaanxi

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