基于SPEI的粤西近50 a干旱特征分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-01-0047

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究粤西干旱时空特征及其与环流指数的关联机制，对区域灾害预警和农业气象服务具有重要意义。利用1973—2022年粤西13个气象观测站数据，计算多尺度标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index，SPEI），结合趋势分析、相关分析和交叉小波变换等方法，探讨粤西近50 a干旱时空特征及其与环流指数的相关关系。结果表明：粤西年、春季、夏季的SPEI均呈干旱化趋势，春季以化州和阳春为干旱化中心，气候倾向率均为-0.24·（10 a）^-1，年尺度干旱化由降水减少主导。粤西干旱等级以轻到中度为主，秋、冬季干旱频发，但其长期变化趋势并不显著。相关系数分析表明，春旱与南海副热带高压脊线位置偏北、前冬西太平洋遥相关型（West Pacific Pattern，WP）指数正位相显著相关；秋旱与前6个月的副热带高压脊线偏北、前9个月北半球极涡面积收缩、太平洋涛动（Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index，PDO）指数或太平洋-北美遥相关型（Pacific-North American Pattern，PNA）指数正位相协同抑制降水有关。交叉小波分析显示，粤西干旱的年代际变化由PDO、副热带高压主导的5~10 a周期决定干旱背景态，南方涛动指数（Southern Oscillation Index，SOI）、北半球极涡面积指数主导的3~5 a周期叠加年际波动。年尺度SPEI与PDO、WP、南海副热带高压脊线位置指数在1995—2005年存在5~10 a的负位相共振关系，显著滞后于PDO约3个月；年尺度SPEI与SOI、北半球极涡面积指数在1996—2002年呈现出周期为3~5 a的负位相共振关系，滞后于极涡面积变化约9个月。

关键词: 气候变化, 气象干旱, SPEI干旱指数, 大气环流指数, 交叉小波

Abstract:

Investigating the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in western Guangdong and their correlation mechanisms with circulation indices is of great significance for regional disaster early warning and agricultural meteorological services. Meteorological data from 13 stations in western Guangdong during 1973-2022 and atmospheric circulation indices were used to calculate the multi-scale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Trend analysis, correlation analysis, and cross wavelet transform were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal drought characteristics and their correlations with circulation indices in western Guangdong over the past 50 years. The results showed that the annual, spring, and summer SPEI exhibited a drying trend in western Guangdong. The climate tendency rate reached -0.24 per decade in Huazhou and Yangchun, which were the centers of spring drying, with annual-scale drying dominated by precipitation decrease. Drought intensity in western Guangdong was mainly light to moderate. Although droughts occurred frequently in autumn and winter, their long-term trends were not significant. The correlation coefficient analysis indicated that spring drought was significantly correlated with the northward shift of the subtropical high ridge line over the South China Sea and the positive phase of the Western Pacific (WP) index in the preceding winter, while autumn drought was associated with the northward shift of the subtropical high ridge line six months earlier, a contracted Northern Hemisphere polar vortex nine months earlier, and the synergistic suppression of precipitation by positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) index. Cross-wavelet transform analysis indicated that the interdecadal variability of drought in western Guangdong was dominated by a 5-10 a periodicity associated with the PDO and subtropical high, which set the drought background, superimposed by inter-annual fluctuations driven by a 3-5 a periodicity of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex area index. During 1995-2005, the annual-scale SPEI indicated a negative phase resonance with the PDO, WP, and the South China Sea subtropical high ridge position index at a 5-10 a period, lagging behind the PDO by approximately 3 months. During 1996-2002, the annual-scale SPEI exhibited a negative phase resonance with the SOI and the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex area index at a 3-5 a period, lagging behind polar vortex area changes by approximately 9 months.

Key words: climate change, meteorological drought, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, atmospheric circulation index, cross wavelet transform

中图分类号:

P467

李家良, 彭丽英, 刘祖任, 余绍荣, 梁家杰. 基于SPEI的粤西近50 a干旱特征分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(1): 47-55.

LI Jialiang, PENG Liying, LIU Zuren, YU Shaorong, LIANG Jiajie. Drought characteristics in western Guangdong over the past 50 years based on SPEI[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(1): 47-55.

图/表 9

图1 粤西地形及13个国家气象观测站空间分布

Fig.1 The topography of western Guangdong and the spatial distribution of its 13 national meteorological observation stations

表1 基于SPEI干旱等级划分

Tab.1 The classification of drought grades based on SPEI

等级	SPEI值
无旱	-0.5<SPEI
轻旱	-1.0<SPEI≤-0.5
中旱	-1.5<SPEI≤-1.0
重旱	-2.0<SPEI≤-1.5
特旱	SPEI≤-2.0

图2 1973—2022年粤西不同季节SPEI变化趋势空间分布[单位：（10 a）-1] （a）春季，（b）夏季，（c）秋季，（d）冬季

Fig.2 The spatial distribution of SPEI variation trend in western Guangdong in different seasons during 1973-2022 （Unit：（10 a）-1）（a） spring，（b）summer，（c）autumn，（d） winter

图3 1973—2022年粤西地区SPEI年际变化（a）及SPEI 5 a滑动平均值的M-K检验（b）

Fig.3 The inter-annual variation of SPEI （a） and M-K test of the 5-year moving average value of SPEI （b） in western Guangdong during 1973-2022

表2 1973—2022年粤西地区不同时间尺度、不同等级干旱发生频率单位：%

Tab.2 The drought occurrence frequency at different time scales and grades in western Guangdong

时间	轻旱	中旱	重旱	特旱	轻旱及以上
1月	6	18	2	0	26
2月	18	2	4	4	28
3月	12	12	4	0	28
4月	10	12	2	0	24
5月	16	10	0	0	26
6月	14	10	4	0	28
7月	16	8	4	0	28
8月	16	10	2	0	28
9月	16	6	4	0	26
10月	26	10	0	0	36
11月	18	4	6	2	30
12月	20	6	4	2	32
春季	12	14	0	0	26
夏季	10	14	0	0	24
秋季	20	8	4	0	32
冬季	14	14	2	2	32
年	28	10	0	0	38

表3 1973—2022年粤西春、秋季SPEI与环流指数的相关系数

Tab.3 The correlation coefficients between SPEI and circulation indices in spring and autumn in western Guangdong during 1973-2022

季节	PDO	SOI	PNA	WP	北半球极涡面积指数	南海副热带高压脊线位置指数
春季	0.04	0.11	0.27	-0.14	0.45**	-0.45**
秋季	0.04	0.15	0.07	-0.26	0.18	-0.08

图4 1973—2022年春季（a）、秋季（b）粤西SPEI和重要环流指数5 a滑动平均值年际变化

Fig.4 The inter-annual variations of the 5-year moving average values of SPEI and key circulation indices in western Guangdong in spring （a） and autumn （b） during 1973-2022

表4 1973—2022年春、秋季粤西不同等级干旱与前期环流指数的相关性

Tab.4 The correlation between droughts of different grades in western Guangdong and preceding circulation indices in spring and autumn during 1973-2022

SPEI值	季节	环流指数	提前月数	相关系数	统计年数/a
SPEI≤-0.5	春季	南海副热带高压脊线位置	0	-0.87**	13
	春季	WP	0	-0.61*	13
	秋季	南海副热带高压脊线位置	6	-0.60*	16
	秋季	北半球极涡面积	9	0.51*	16
	秋季	PDO	6	0.64**	16
	秋季	PDO	9	0.51*	16
SPEI≤-1.0	春季	南海副热带高压脊线位置	0	-0.77*	7
	春季	WP	3	-0.83*	7
	秋季	PNA	9	0.94**	6
	秋季	PDO	9	0.85*	6

图5 1973—2022年粤西年SPEI与不同环流指数交叉小波变换周期（黑色细实线为小波边界效应影响锥，粗黑实线表示通过置信水平为95%的红噪声检验；箭头表示位相关系：←表示两个序列变化呈负位相关系，→表示两个序列变化呈正位相关系，↓表示位相超前90°，↑表示位相滞后90°；色标表示交叉小波变换周期）

Fig.5 The cross wavelet transform period between annual SPEI and different circulation indices in western Guangdong during 1973-2022 (The black thin solid line represents the influence cone of wavelet boundary effect, the thick black solid line represents the red noise test with a confidence level of 95%; the arrow represents the phase relationship: ← represents the negative phase relationship between the two sequence changes, → represents the positive phase relationship between the two sequence changes, ↓ represents the phase leading by 90°, ↑ represents the phase lagging by 90°; the color code represents the period of the cross wavelet transform)

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