亚欧大陆波列模态与热带对流对长江流域2024年夏末秋初复合高温干旱事件的协同影响

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-01-0001

干旱气象 ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 1-14.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-01-0001

亚欧大陆波列模态与热带对流对长江流域2024年夏末秋初复合高温干旱事件的协同影响

沈诗荐¹(), 李金建¹(), 马鹤翟², 李兴¹^,², 孟庆怡³, 李霄宇¹

1.复杂地形区域气候变化与资源利用四川省重点实验室/成都平原城市气象与环境四川省野外科学观测研究站/气象灾害预测预警四川省工程研究中心/成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，四川成都 610225
2.中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所/全国暴雨研究中心/中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室/暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室，湖北武汉 430205
3.贵州省黔西南布依族苗族自治州气象局，贵州兴义 562400

收稿日期:2025-09-08 修回日期:2025-12-23 出版日期:2026-02-28 发布日期:2026-03-25
通讯作者: 李金建（1982—），男，山东德州人，教授，主要从事古气候与气候变化研究。E-mail： ljj@cuit.edu.cn。
作者简介:沈诗荐（2001—），男，辽宁葫芦岛人，硕士生，主要从事气候变化与极端气候研究。E-mail： 673585091@qq.com。
基金资助:
四川省自然科学基金项目(2025ZNSFSC1136);中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室开放研究基金项目(2023BHR-Y01)

Synergistic impacts of Eurasian wave train mode and tropical convection on the compound hot and drought event in the Yangtze River Basin in late summer and early autumn in 2024

SHEN Shijian¹(), LI Jinjian¹(), MA Hedi², LI Xing¹^,², MENG Qingyi³, LI Xiaoyu¹

1. Sichuan Key Laboratory of Climate Change and Resource Utilization in Complex Terrain Regions/Sichuan Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Urban Meteorology and Environment in Chengdu Plain/Sichuan Engineering Research Center for Meteorological Disaster Forecasting and Warning/College of Atmospheric Sciences，Chengdu University of Information Technology，Chengdu 610225，China
2. China Meteorological Administration Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain/Heavy Rainfall Research Center of China/China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Torrential Rain Monitoring and Warning，Wuhan 430205，China
3. Qianxinan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province，Xingyi 562400，Guizhou，China

Received:2025-09-08 Revised:2025-12-23 Online:2026-02-28 Published:2026-03-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

复合极端高温干旱事件对农业生产、水资源安全及社会经济具有显著影响。基于多源再分析资料，结合三维连通组件算法与日尺度标准化降水指数，识别并分析了2024年夏秋季长江流域一次严重复合高温干旱事件的时空特征及成因。结果表明，该事件持续65 d，影响范围几乎覆盖全流域，高温强度达2.1 ℃、干旱强度为-0.64，并呈现由长江中下游向四川盆地西移推进且逐步增强的演变特征。8月21日—9月20日为事件峰值阶段，高温与干旱异常显著强于盛夏期，日最高气温正异常为历史同期最高、日降水量负异常为1998年以来同期最强，形成罕见的“秋老虎”过程。机制分析表明，该事件受中高纬罗斯贝波列与热带对流的阶段性交替与叠加共同驱动：前期由“+-+”型波列引发的东亚反气旋主导，引发持续下沉与辐射增温；中期热带对流显著增强，通过局地经圈环流维持发展；后期转为热带对流主导。

关键词: 复合高温干旱事件, 长江流域, 时空特征, 大气环流

Abstract:

Compound hot and dry events can pose significant threats to agricultural production, water-resource security, and socioeconomic development. Using multisource reanalysis datasets in combination with a three-dimensional connected component (CC3D) algorithm and the daily standardized precipitation index (SPI), this paper identified and investigated a large-scale compound hot and dry event that occurred over the Yangtze River Basin during the summer-autumn of 2024, with emphasis on its spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms. The event persisted for 65 days and affected nearly the entire basin, with a heat intensity of 2.1 °C and a drought intensity of -0.64. It exhibited a clear westward migration and progressive intensification, evolving from the middle-lower Yangtze Plain toward the Sichuan Basin. The period from 21 August to 20 September marked the peak stage, during which heat and drought anomalies were substantially stronger than those in midsummer, the positive anomaly of daily maximum temperature reached the highest level on record for the same period, and the negative daily precipitation anomaly was the strongest since 1998, forming a rare “autumn tiger” episode. Mechanistically, the event was jointly driven by the stage-wise alternation and superposition of mid-high-latitude Rossby wave trains and tropical convection. In the early stage, an East Asian anticyclone triggered by a “+-+” wave-train pattern dominated the circulation, inducing persistent subsidence and enhanced solar radiation. During the middle stage, enhanced tropical convection maintained and intensified the hot-dry conditions through a local meridional circulation in concert with high-latitude dynamical forcing. In the late stage, the process became primarily controlled by tropical convection, which continuously sustained the extreme heat and drought anomalies.

Key words: compound hot and drought events, Yangtze River Basin, spatiotemporal characteristics, atmospheric circulation

中图分类号:

P466

沈诗荐, 李金建, 马鹤翟, 李兴, 孟庆怡, 李霄宇. 亚欧大陆波列模态与热带对流对长江流域2024年夏末秋初复合高温干旱事件的协同影响[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(1): 1-14.

SHEN Shijian, LI Jinjian, MA Hedi, LI Xing, MENG Qingyi, LI Xiaoyu. Synergistic impacts of Eurasian wave train mode and tropical convection on the compound hot and drought event in the Yangtze River Basin in late summer and early autumn in 2024[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(1): 1-14.

图/表 11

图1 2008年长江流域一次时空连续高温热浪事件三维演变过程

Fig.1 Three-dimensional evolution of a spatiotemporal continuous heat wave event in the Yangtze River Basin in 2008

表1 1979—2024年长江流域典型复合高温干旱事件的特征

Tab.1 Characteristics of typical compound hot and drought events in the Yangtze River Basin from 1979 to 2024

起始时间	结束时间	持续时间/d	高温强度/℃	最大覆盖面积/格点数	SPI₃₀
1981-06-11	1981-06-27	17	1.55	474	-0.54
2013-07-22	2013-08-30	40	1.57	517	-0.76
2016-08-11	2016-08-29	16	1.76	516	-0.71
2022-07-28	2022-08-30	34	2.59	517	-1.03
2024-07-28	2024-09-30	65	2.10	517	-0.63

图2 2024年长江流域复合高温干旱事件空间演变轨迹（红色箭头线）和高温强度加权质心分布（填色气泡，单位：℃） [红色箭头线连接每10 d（末段为15 d）的高温强度加权质心，气泡大小表示该时间段事件最大覆盖面积]

Fig.2 Spatial evolution track （red arrowed line） and hot intensity-weighted centroid distribution （colored bubbles，Unit： °C） of the compound hot and drought event over the Yangtze River Basin in 2024 （The red arrowed line connects the hot intensity-weighted centroids at 10-day intervals （15 days for the final segment）； bubble size indicates the maximum affected area during each period）

图3 2024年7月28日—9月30日长江流域复合高温干旱事件高温强度、干旱强度（a）及1979—2024年同期区域平均Tmax（b）的逐日演变

Fig.3 Daily variation of the hot intensity and SPI30 (a) of the compound hot and drought event from July 28 to September 30, 2024 and the regional average Tmax at the same period from 1979 to 2024 (b)

图4 1979—2024年7月28日—8月20日（a、c）、8月21日—9月20日（b、d）长江流域平均Tmax（a、b）、平均降水量（c、d）异常年际变化及2024年7月28日—8月20日（e、g）、8月21日—9月20日（f、h）Tmax异常场（单位：℃）（e、f）、降水量异常场（单位：mm）（g、h）空间分布

Fig.4 Interannual variation of mean Tmax anomalies (a, b) and mean precipitation anomalies (c, d) from 28 July to 20 August (a, c) and 21 August to 20 September (b, d) during 1979-2024, and spatial distribution of anomaly fields of Tmax (Unit: ℃) (e, f) and precipitation (Unit: mm) (g, h) from 28 July to 20 August (e, g) and 21 August to 20 September (f, h) 2024 in the Yangtze River Basin

图5 2024年8月21日—9月20日500 hPa位势高度场距平（填色，单位：gpm）和风场（矢量，单位：m·s-1）（a）、500 hPa垂直速度异常场（负值表示上升运动，单位：Pa·s-1）（b）、总云量异常场（c）、向下短波辐射异常场（单位：106 J·m-2）（d）（绿色线为5 880 gpm，黑色矩形为长江流域）

Fig.5 The 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: gpm), and wind field (vectors, Unit: m·s-1) (a), 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies (negative value indicates upward motion, Unit: Pa·s-1) (b), total cloud cover anomalies (c), and downward shortwave radiation anomalies (Unit: 10? J·m-2) (d) during 21 August to 20 September 2024 (The green line denotes 5 880 gpm, the black rectangle indicates the Yangtze River Basin)

图6 1979—2024年8月21日—9月20日第一旬（a、b）、第二旬（c、d）及第三旬（e、f）平均Tmax（a、c、e）及平均降水量（b、d、f）联合MVEOF1的空间分布及其对应的共同PC1

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of average Tmax (a, c, e) and average precipitation (b, d, f) combined with MVEOF1 and their corresponding common PC1 for the first (a, b), second (c, d), and third (e, f) ten-day periods from August 21 to September 20 during 1979-2024

图7 1979—2024年8月21日—9月20日第一旬（a、b）、第二旬（c、d）及第三旬（e、f）PC1与亚欧大陆200 hPa位势高度（单位：gpm）（a、c、e）及南海—菲律宾—西太平洋区域OLR（单位：W·m-2）（b、d、f）回归系数的空间分布 [打点区域通过显著性检验（P≤0.05），下同；黑色矩形为南海—菲律宾—西太平洋区域]

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of regression coefficients of PC1 onto the 200 hPa geopotential height over the Eurasian continent (Unit: gpm) (a, c, e) and OLR (Unit: W·m-2) over the south China Sea-Philippines-western Pacific region (b, d, f) for the first (a, b), second (c, d), and third (e, f) ten-day periods during August 21-September 20, 1979-2024 (The dotted area passed significance test (P≤0.05), the same as below; the black rectangle denotes the south China Sea-Philippines-western Pacific region)

图8 2024年8月21日—9月20日第一旬（a、b）、第二旬（c、d）及第三旬（e、f）200 hPa流函数距平场（填色，单位：106 m2·s-1）和T-N波作用通量（矢量，单位：m2·s-2）（a、c、e），及105°E—120°E经向平均垂直速度剖面（负值表示上升运动，单位：Pa·s-1）（b、d、f）

Fig.8 Anomalous 200 hPa stream function (the color shaded, Unit: 106 m2·s-1) and T-N wave activity flux (vectors, Unit: m2·s-2) (a, c, e) and the meridional mean vertical velocity cross section averaged over 105°E—120°E (negative values indicate upward motion, Unit: Pa·s-1) (b, d, f) for the first (a, b), second (c, d), and third (e, f) ten-day periods during August 21-September 20 in 2024

图9 2024年长江流域“秋老虎”型复合高温干旱事件机理示意图

Fig.9 A schematic diagram of the mechanism of “autumn tiger” event in the Yangtze River Basin in 2024

图10 1979—2024年8月21日—9月20日200 hPa位势高度距平场（单位：gpm）K均值聚类结果（a），Cluster 1型模态频次（b）及南海—菲律宾—西太平洋平均OLR异常（c）年际变化，南海—菲律宾—西太平洋平均OLR异常与长江流域500 hPa垂直速度异常的相关系数空间分布（d）

Fig.10 The K-means clustering results of the 200 hPa geopotential height anomaly field (Unit: gpm) (a), interannual variation of Cluster 1 mode frequency (b) and mean OLR anomaly over the south China Sea-Philippines-Western Pacific region (c), and spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between mean OLR anomaly over the south China Sea-Philippines-Western Pacific region and 500 hPa vertical velocity anomaly in the Yangtze River Basin (d) from August 21 to September 20 during 1979-2024

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亚欧大陆波列模态与热带对流对长江流域2024年夏末秋初复合高温干旱事件的协同影响

Synergistic impacts of Eurasian wave train mode and tropical convection on the compound hot and drought event in the Yangtze River Basin in late summer and early autumn in 2024

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