干旱气象

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鲁西南典型植物春季物候期的模拟研究

  

  1. 1.山东省菏泽市气象局,山东菏泽274000;
    2.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏省农业气象重点实验室,江苏南京210044
  • 出版日期:2015-12-31 发布日期:2015-12-31
  • 作者简介:李瑞英(1981- ),女,山东菏泽人,硕士,工程师,研究方向为农业气象与气候变化. E-mail:lirycg@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    山东省气象局课题“鲁西南典型植物物候期对气候变化的响应”(2013sdqx11)资助

Simulation of Spring Phenophase of Typical Plants in Southwestern Shandong Province

  1. 1. Heze Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province, Heze 274000, China;
     2.College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Online:2015-12-31 Published:2015-12-31

摘要:

利用2006~2014年鲁西南地区菏泽、曹县和济宁3个国家级农业气象观测站气象及物候观测资料,采用国际上流行的ForcTT积温模型模拟了当地常见、广泛分布的9种木本植物和4种草本植物展叶始期和开花始期的最佳积温开始日期和基础温度。结果表明:(1)模拟的木本植物展叶始期的最佳积温累积开始日期主要为1月1日,最佳基础温度主要为1 ℃。开花始期模拟的最佳积温累积开始日期不同木本物种差异较大,开花期较早(3月)的毛白杨、旱柳和榆树的最佳积温累积开始日期为2月1日,最佳基础温度为3 ℃,开花期集中在4~6月的物种的最佳积温累积开始日期为3月1日,基础温度在3~5 ℃之间,开花期最晚(7月)的槐树的最佳积温累积开始日期为4月1日,基础温度为4 ℃;(2)就草本植物而言,展叶期较早(2~3月)的车前、苍耳和芦苇模拟的最佳积温累积开始日期为1月1日,最佳基础温度为1~2 ℃,展叶较晚(4月)的莲模拟的最佳积温累积开始日期为2月1日,最佳基础温度为3 ℃。开花期较早(4~6月)的车前和苍耳其开花始期模拟的最佳积温累积开始日期为2月1日,最佳基础温度为3 ℃,开花较晚(7~9月)的莲和芦苇模拟的最佳积温累积开始日期为4月1日,最佳基础温度分别为-1 ℃和2 ℃;(3)展叶始期和开花始期模拟的平均误差在2 d左右。由此可知,无论是木本植物还是草本植物,ForcTT积温模型对展叶和开花始期的模拟效果均较好,预测值和观测值间的相关系数普遍在0.90以上,达高度相关。

关键词: 物候期, 模拟, ForcTT模型, 鲁西南

Abstract:

Based on the meterological and phonological observation data of Heze, Caoxian and Jining agro-meteorologcial stations in southwestern Shandong Province from 2006 to 2014, the best beginning date of the accumulative temperature and basis temperature during the beginning of leaf expansion and blossoming for 9 woody plants and 4 herbaceous plants were simulated by ForcTT model. Results are as follows:(1) As far as the woody plants be concerned, the best beginning date of the accumulative temperature simulated by ForcTT model during the beginning of leaf expansion was mainly January 1st, and the best basic temperature was 1 ℃, while that during the beginning of flowering was different for 9 species, the best beginning date of the accumulative temperature and basic temperature of Populus tomentosa, Salix matsudana and Ulmus pumila with blossom period in March were February 1st and 3 ℃, respectively, the best parameters of woody plants with main blossom period from Apri to June were respectively March 1st and 3-5 ℃, and that of Sophora japonica with blossom phase in July were Apri 1st and 4 ℃, respectively. (2) Concerning herbaceous plants, the best beginning date of Plantago asiatica, Xanthium sibiricum and Phragmites communis with sprout leaves in February to March was January 1st, the best basic temperature was 1-2 ℃, while that of Nelumbo nucifera with sprout leaves in April was February 1st and 3 ℃, respectively. The best parameters of Plantago asiatica, Xanthium sibiricum which blossom was earlier (from April to June) were February 1st and 3 ℃, respectively, while the best beginning dates of Lotus and Phragmites which blossom was later (from July to September) were Apri 1st, and the best basic temperature were -1 ℃ and 2 ℃ respectively. (3) The simulated average error during the beginning of leaf expansion and blossom were about 2 days. Therefore, the effects of the beginning of leaf expansion and blossom for the woody plants and herbaceous plants simulated by ForcTT model were all well, the correlation coefficients between the predicted value and observed value were above 0.90, which reached high correlation.

Key words: phenophase, simulation, ForcTT model, southwestern Shandong Province

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