关键词: 早春霜冻, 夏季热害, 冬季冻害, 年代际变化, 茶叶, 灾害综合风险区划

Abstract:

Meteorological disaster is the main factor which affects production and quality of tea. Based on the daily average, maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity of 478 weather stations in the southern Yangtze River including Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hu’nan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian Province during 1961-2011, the annual and decadal distributions of the main meteorological disasters of tea in the southern Yangtze River were analyzed, and the comprehensive risk division of agro-meteorological disaster for tea was studied by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP), weighting comprehensive evaluation (WCE) and natural breaks (Jenks) methods to promote meteorological service and support capability for tea production. The results showed that the annual average days of early spring frost and winter frost damage decreased gradually from north to south, which appeared latitudinal zonality distribution, and the decadal average days of early spring frost and winter frost damage decreased from the 1960s to the 2000s.The decadal change of summer heat damage was obvious, and the decadal average days of summer heat damage decreased gradually before the 2000s, subsequently increased significantly, especially in Jiangxi, Zhejiang and the east of Hu’nan Province. The high risk areas of tea comprehensive agro-meteorological disaster were mainly located in northern Jiangsu and northern Anhui, which accounted for 11.3% of the south of Yangtze River. The moderate risk areas were located in central and northern Zhejiang, southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui and northern Hubei, which accounted for 30% of the total. The low risk areas were mainly located in southern Zhejiang, southern Hubei and most parts of Jiangxi, Hu’nan and Fujian, which accounted for 58.7% of the total, where it was perfectly suited to plant tea.

Key words: early spring frost, summer heat damage, winter frost damage, decadal change, tea, comprehensive risk division of agro-meteorological disaster