不同气候背景下南疆暖季暴雨特征和差异

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0222

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2020年5—9月(暖季)南疆44个国家气象站逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)再分析资料,分析不同年代际和气候背景(暖干期和暖湿期)下南疆暖季暴雨的时空变化特征及大尺度环流异常特征。结果表明:1961年以来南疆暖季累计暴雨日数、暴雨站次和暴雨雨量均呈增加趋势,暴雨强度和暴雨雨量占总降水量比例的变化趋势不明显。南疆暖季累计暴雨日数、暴雨站次和暴雨雨量在暖湿期明显多于暖干期,暴雨强度和暴雨雨量占总降水量的比例在暖干期及暖湿期的差异不大。进入暖湿期后,南疆大部分站点的暴雨日数和暴雨雨量都有所增加,且西南部站点增加最明显,但山区的增加幅度小于平原。中亚低槽、中亚低涡和塔里木东风低空急流是造成南疆暖季暴雨的主要影响系统,南疆暖季暴雨在暖干期以低涡型为主,暖湿期以低槽型为主;850 hPa偏东气流在低涡型暴雨中比低槽型暴雨西伸更加明显,在暖湿期与暖干期环流差值场中,低槽型暴雨和低涡型暴雨中高纬地区的环流异常呈现反向变化特征。

关键词: 暴雨, 年代际变化, 气候转型, 大尺度环流, 南疆

Abstract:

Based on daily precipitation data from 44 national meteorological stations in the southern Xinjiang and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from May to September (warm season) during 1961-2020, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm and large-scale circulation anomalies under different decades and climatic background (warm-dry period and warm-wet period) in the southern Xinjiang were analyzed. The results show that the cumulative rainstorm days, rainstorm stations and rainstorm rainfall in the warm season of the southern Xinjiang has been increasing since 1961, but the variation trend of rainstorm intensity and the proportion of rainstorm rainfall in total precipitation was not obvious. The cumulative rainstorm days, rainstorm stations and rainstorm rainfall in the warm-wet period in the southern Xinjiang were significantly more than those in the warm-dry period, and the rainstorm intensity and the proportion of rainstorm rainfall in the total precipitation had little difference in the warm-wet period and the warm-dry period. After entering the warm-wet period, the rainstorm days and rainstorm rainfall amount increased in most stations in the southern Xinjiang (the most obvious increase was at southwest stations), but the increase extent in mountain area was smaller than that in plain. The central Asian trough, central Asian vortex and Tarim easterly low level jet were the main influencing systems for the heavy rain in the warm season in the southern Xinjiang. The heavy rain in the warm season in the southern Xinjiang was dominated by low vortex type in the warm-dry periods, and low trough type in the warm-wet periods. The easterly flow 850 hPa extended westward more obviously in the low vortex rainstorm than in the low trough rainstorm. In the circulation difference field between the warm-wet periods and the warm-dry period, the circulation anomaly in the high latitude area of the low trough rainstorm and the low vortex rainstorm showed reverse change characteristics.

Key words: rainstorm, interdecadal change, change of climate pattern, large-scale circulation, the southern Xinjiang

中图分类号:

P466

杨霞, 许婷婷, 张林梅, 华烨, 周鸿奎. 不同气候背景下南疆暖季暴雨特征和差异[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(2): 222-233.

YANG Xia, XU Tingting, ZHANG Linmei, HUA Ye, ZHOU Hongkui. Characteristics and differences of rainstorm in the southern Xinjiang during warm season under different climatic backgrounds[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(2): 222-233.

图/表 10

图1 南疆地形(阴影,单位:m,下同)及气象站点(红色圆点为地州首府站,绿色圆点为山区站,蓝色圆点为平原站)分布

Fig.1 The terrain (the shadow, Unit: m, the same as below) and distribution of meteorological stations (the red dots are the capital sites, the green dots are the mountain sites, the blue dots are plain sites) in the southern Xinjiang

表1 1961—2020年5—9月暖干期和暖湿期南疆暴雨日数、暴雨站次、暴雨雨量、暴雨强度及暴雨雨量占总降水量比例

Tab.1 The rainstorm days, rainstorm stations, rainstorm rainfall, rainstorm intensity and proportion of rainstorm rainfall in total precipitation in southern Xinjiang in the warm-dry periods and the warm-wet periods from May to September during 1961-2020

时段	暴雨日数/ d	暴雨站次	暴雨雨量/ mm	暴雨强度/ (mm·d^-1)	暴雨雨量占总降水比例/%
暖干期	47.3	64	2051.8	31.1	10.0
暖湿期	62.3	89	2932.7	32.7	10.6

图2 1961—2020年5—9月南疆暴雨日数(a)、暴雨站次(b)、暴雨雨量(c)、暴雨强度(d)及暴雨雨量占总降水量比例(e)的年代际变化

Fig.2 The interdecadal variation of rainstorm days (a), rainstorm stations (b), rainstorm rainfall (c), daily rainstorm intensity (d) and proportion of rainstorm rainfall in total precipitation (e) in the southern Xinjiang from May to September during 1961-2020

图3 南疆暖季累计暴雨日数(彩色圆点)空间分布(单位:d) (a)20世纪60年代,(b)20世纪70年代,(c)20世纪80年代,(d)20世纪90年代, (e)21世纪00年代,(f)21世纪10年代,(g)暖干期,(h)暖湿期

Fig.3 The spatial distribution of accumulated rainstorm days (the clolor dots) in the southern Xinjiang during the warm season (Unit: d) (a) the 1960s, (b) the 1970s, (c) the 1980s, (d) the 1990s, (e) the 2000s, (f) the 2010s, (g) the warm-dry periods, (h) the warm-wet periods

图4 南疆暖季累计暴雨雨量(彩色圆点)的空间分布(单位:mm) (a)20世纪60年代,(b)20世纪70年代,(c)20世纪80年代,(d)20世纪90年代, (e)21世纪00年代,(f)21世纪10年代,(g)暖干期,(h)暖湿期

Fig.4 The spatial distribution of accumulated rainstorm rainfall (the clolor dots) in the southern Xinjiang during the warm season (Unit: mm) (a) the 1960s, (b) the 1970s, (c) the 1980s, (d) the 1990s, (e) the 2000s, (f) the 2010s, (g) the warm-dry periods, (h) the warm-wet periods

图5 南疆暖季暴雨强度(彩色圆点)的空间分布(单位:mm·d-1) (a)20世纪60年代,(b)20世纪70年代,(c)20世纪80年代,(d)20世纪90年代,(e)21世纪00年代,(f)21世纪10年代,(g)暖干期,(h)暖湿期

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of rainstorm intensity (the clolor dots) in the southern Xinjiang during the warm season (Unit: mm·d-1) (a) the 1960s, (b) the 1970s, (c) the 1980s, (d) the 1990s, (e) the 2000s, (f) the 2010s, (g) the warm-dry periods, (h) the warm-wet periods

图6 南疆暖季暴雨雨量占总降水量比例(彩色圆点)的空间分布(单位:%) (a)20世纪60年代,(b)20世纪70年代,(c)20世纪80年代,(d)20世纪90年代,(e)21世纪00年代,(f)21世纪10年代,(g)暖干期,(h)暖湿期

Fig.6 The spatial distribution of percentage of rainstorm rainfall in total precipitation (the clolor dots) in the southern Xinjiang during the warm season (Unit: %) (a) the 1960s, (b) the 1970s, (c) the 1980s, (d) the 1990s, (e) the 2000s, (f) the 2010s, (g) the warm-dry periods, (h) the warm-wet periods

表2 1961—2020年5—9月暖干期和暖湿期南疆不同类型暴雨过程统计

Tab.2 The statistics of rainstorm processes of different types in the southern Xinjiang in the warm-dry periods and the warm-wet periods from May to September during 1961-2020

时期	低槽型暴雨		低涡型暴雨
时期	发生次数/次	占比/%	发生次数/次	占比/%
暖干期	12	41.4	17	58.6
暖湿期	37	82.2	8	17.8

图7 暖干期(a、b)和暖湿期(c、d)南疆暖季低槽型暴雨(a、c)和低涡型暴雨(b、d)的500 hPa位势高度场(蓝色等值线,单位:dagpm)、风场(黑色风羽,单位:m·s-1)及850 hPa风场(红色风羽,仅显示风速大于等于4 m·s-1)合成 (灰色填色区为大于等于1500 m的地形,下同)

Fig.7 The composition of geopotential height field (blue lines, Unit: dagpm), wind field (black wind barbs, Unit: m·s-1) at 500 hPa and wind field at 850 hPa (red wind barbs, only plotting wind speed greater than or equal to 4 m·s-1) of low trough rainstorm (a, c) and low vortex rainstorm (b, d) in the warm-dry periods (a, b) and the warm-wet periods (c, d) in the southern Xinjiang (the gray shaded area for terrain greater than or equal to 1500 m, the same as below)

图8 南疆暖季低槽型暴雨(a)和低涡型暴雨(b)在暖湿期和暖干期的500 hPa位势高度(彩色填色区,单位:gpm)及流场(黑色线)差值场、850 hPa风差值场(红色风羽,单位:m·s-1)

Fig.8 The difference of geopotential height field (color shaded area, Unit: gpm), flow field (black line) at 500 hPa and wind field at 850 hPa (red wind barbs) of low trough rainstorm (a) and low vortex rainstorm (b) in the warm-wet periods and the warm-dry periods in the southern Xinjiang

参考文献 31

[1]	TAO S, DING Y. Observational evidence of the influence of the Qinghai Xizang (Tibet) Plateau on the occurrence of heavy rain and severe convective storms in China[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societ, 1981, 62(1):23-30.
[2]	陶诗言. 中国之暴雨[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1980:255.
[3]	郑小华, 娄盼星, 马永永, 等. 2018年陕西省暴雨灾害气象服务效益评估[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2022, 45(1):90-95.
[4]	司福意, 张一平, 赵海青, 等. 豫北“7·9”特大暴雨的形成与极端性探析[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2021, 44(1):65-73.
[5]	宋清芝, 吕林宜. 黄河中游一次致洪暴雨过程的形成机理[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2018, 41(2):54-61.
[6]	丁一汇. 暴雨和中尺度气象学问题[J]. 气象学报, 1994, 52(3):274-284.
[7]	高守亭, 赵思雄, 周晓平, 等. 次天气尺度及中尺度暴雨系统研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 2003, 27(4):618-627.
[8]	鲍名, 黄荣辉. 近40年中我国暴雨的年代际变化特征[J]. 大气科学, 2006, 30(6):1057-1067.
[9]	王军, 席乐, 王超杰, 等. “温比亚”引发河南特大暴雨的中尺度系统特征分析[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2021, 44(4):16-23.
[10]	林建, 杨贵名. 近30年中国暴雨时空特征分析[J]. 气象, 2014, 40(7):816-826.
[11]	黄荣辉, 陈际龙, 刘永. 我国东部夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化及其与东亚水汽输送的关系[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(4):589-606.
[12]	陈栋, 陈际龙, 黄荣辉, 等. 中国东部夏季暴雨的年代际跃变及其大尺度环流背景[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(3):581-590.
[13]	罗连升, 徐敏, 何冬燕. 2000年以来淮河流域夏季降水年代际特征及大气环流异常[J]. 干旱气象, 2019, 37(4):540-549.
[14]	张庆云, 陶诗言, 张顺利. 夏季长江流域暴雨洪涝灾害的天气气候条件[J]. 大气科学, 2003, 27(6):1018-1030.
[15]	NING L, QIAN Y F. Interdecadal change in extreme precipitation over south China and its mechanism[J]. Advances in atmospheric sciences, 2009, 26(1):109-118. DOI URL
[16]	刘小宁. 我国暴雨极端事件的气候变化特征[J]. 灾害学, 1999, 14(1):54-59.
[17]	史培军, 孔峰, 方佳毅. 中国年代际暴雨时空变化格局[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(11):1281-1290. DOI
[18]	李柔珂, 李耀辉, 徐影. 未来中国地区的暴雨洪涝灾害风险预估[J]. 干旱气象, 2018, 36(3):341-352.
[19]	张家宝, 苏起元, 孙沈清, 等. 新疆短期天气预报指导手册[M]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆人民出版社, 1986.
[20]	马淑红, 席元伟. 新疆暴雨的若干规律性[J]. 气象学报, 1997, 55(2):239-248.
[21]	程善俊, 梁苏洁. 基于3种指数的全球干湿变化年代际特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2018, 36(2):176-184.
[22]	施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋梁, 等. 中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J]. 第四纪研究, 2003, 23(2):152-164.
[23]	韩萍, 薛燕, 苏宏超. 新疆降水在气候转型中的信号反映[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(2):179-182.
[24]	蓝永超, 沈永平, 苏宏超, 等. 全球变暖情景下新疆降水的变化[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2008, 22(10):66-71.
[25]	杨莲梅. 新疆极端降水的气候变化[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(4):577-583.
[26]	张家宝, 邓子风. 新疆降水概论[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1987.
[27]	杨霞, 李云, 赵逸舟, 等. 新疆一次深秋局地短时大暴雨的成因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2014, 33(1):162-170. DOI
[28]	杨霞, 张云惠, 张超, 等. 南疆西部“5·21”极端大暴雨成因分析[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2020, 4(1):1-30.
[29]	努尔比亚·吐尼牙孜, 张超, 李泽巍, 等. 南疆西部2016年8月4次暴雨过程特征分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2019, 37(2):301-311.
[30]	张云惠, 李海燕, 蔺喜禄, 等. 南疆西部持续性暴雨环流背景及天气尺度的动力过程分析[J]. 气象, 2015, 41(7):816-824.
[31]	杨霞, 周鸿奎, 许婷婷, 等. 南疆夏季不同类型暴雨的精细化特征对比分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(3):747-756.