Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation and the maximum, minimum temperature from 16 weather stations in Handan of Hebei Province from 1974 to 2015, the climate change characteristics of extreme precipitation indexes were analyzed by using methods of linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and then the responses of extreme precipitation indexes to precipitation and temperature were discussed by using correlation analysis. The results show that the change trends of extreme precipitation indexes in Handan of Hebei Province were different during 1974-2015, and the days of middle rain (R10) had a slight rising trend, the heavy rain days (R20) and continuous wet days (CWD) hadn’t changed obviously, while the other indexes presented a decreasing trend, and the decreasing trend of the 1-day maximum precipitation (RX1day), 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day) and extreme heavy precipitation (R99P) passed the significance test of 0.05 level, the mutations occurred in 2004, 1992, 2006, respectively. In space, the change rate of each extreme precipitation index had certain regional differences in recent 42 years. The decrease of extreme value indexes, absolute indexes and relative indexes were most obvious in Qiuxian and Quzhou, Fengfeng and Quzhou during 1974-2015, respectively. The extreme precipitation indexes were significantly positive correlated with the annual precipitation except for continuous dry days (CDD). The most extreme precipitation indexes were negative correlated with the maximum and minimum temperature, while R10 and CWD were slightly positive correlated with the minimum temperature, and the response of extreme precipitation to the maximum temperature was more sensitive than to the minimum temperature.

Key words: extreme precipitation indexes, change trend, correlation analysis, Handan

摘要：

利用1974—2015年河北邯郸地区16个观测站逐日降水与最高、最低气温资料，分析了邯郸地区极端降水指数的时空变化特征，探讨了极端降水对年降水量和气温的响应关系。结果表明：近42 a来，河北邯郸地区极端降水指数中除中雨日数呈轻微上升趋势、大雨日数及连续湿日整体无明显变化趋势外，其他指数均呈下降趋势，其中最大1 d降水量、最大5 d降水量、极强降水量下降趋势显著，且分别于2004、1992、2006年发生显著突变。各极端降水指数的变化幅度区域性差异明显，极值指数以邱县、曲周县减少最显著，绝对指数以峰峰矿区减少最显著，而相对指数则以曲周县减少最显著。除连续干旱日数呈微弱的负相关外，其他极端降水指数与年降水量呈显著正相关；除最低气温与中雨日数、连续湿日呈微弱正相关外，最高、最低气温与极端降水指数均呈负相关，极端降水对最高气温的响应比最低气温更敏感。

关键词: 极端降水指数, 变化趋势, 相关分析, 邯郸地区