Abstract:

Based on daily temperature during the period of 1961 － 2008 in Gangcha county of Qinghai Province，the variation characteristics of heating index was analyzed，and the starting and ending date of heating period as well as energy demand were predicted． Results show that the starting date of the heating period delayed and the ending date advanced，the heating period became shorter in these years． Heating degree day decreased significantly and heating energy demand reduced year after year． The starting date of heating period correlated positively with mean temperature in September，and the ending date correlated positively with mean temperature in May． The higher mean temperature in winter， the smaller heating degree day variation and energy demand． Using meteorological data from 2009 to 2011，the starting and the ending date as well as heating demand of the heating period were predicted，and the prediction results was well in actual and could be used in meteorological services．

Key words: heating period, energy demand, climate change, Gangcha county

摘要：

利用青海省高海拔地区刚察县1961 ～ 2008 年逐日平均气温，分析了采暖指标变化特征，对采暖初终日期和能耗进行预测，结果表明: 该区采暖期初日推迟，终日提前，采暖期长度呈逐年缩短趋势; 采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势，采暖能源需求量逐年减少; 采暖初日与9 月平均气温之间存在极显著的正相关关系，终日与5 月平均气温正相关，冬季平均气温越高，采暖度日和能源需求越小。应用2009 ～ 2011 年气象资料，对采暖初、终日及采暖能源需求进行试报，预报效果较好，预测结果可以在实际服务工作中应用。

关键词: 采暖期, 能源需求, 气候变化, 刚察县