Wind Power Forecast Based on the Mesoscale Model and Diagnosis Wind Field Model

J4 ›› 2011, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 500-503.

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Wind Power Forecast Based on the Mesoscale Model and Diagnosis Wind Field Model

ZHANG Tiejun¹，ZHU Rong²，LI Zhaorong¹，LI Xiaoxia³，FU Jing¹

1． Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory，Lanzhou 730020，China; 2． The National Climate Center，
Beijing 10008，China; 3． Northwest Regional Climate Center，Lanzhou 730020，China

Received:2011-08-02 Revised:2011-08-09 Online:2011-12-31 Published:2011-12-31

利用中尺度模式与诊断风场模型进行风电功率预报

张铁军¹ ，朱蓉²，李照荣¹ ，李晓霞³ ，伏晶¹

1．兰州中心气象台，甘肃兰州730020; 2．国家气候中心，北京100081;
3．西北区域气候中心，甘肃兰州730020)

作者简介:张铁军( 1979 － ) ，男，甘肃天水人，工程师，主要从事天气预报与数值模式研究工作．
基金资助:
甘肃省科技厅支撑计划“甘肃省风电功率预报技术研究与开发”( 1011GKCA028) 和中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目“北京快速循环更新数值预报系统改进与推广”( CMAGJ2011Z04) 项目共同资助

Abstract

Abstract:

Wind power is intermittent，randomness and non － controllable which is different from conventional power，the large capacity of wind power connecting to power grid has brought serious challenges to security and stable operation of power system． Short － term forecast of the power of wind field is an effective way to solve this problem． Based on the mesoscale model and diagnosis wind field model，the output power forecast of wind farm is carried on in this paper． Through the simulation result，we found that the hourly wind speed prediction can reflect the change of wind speed and it＇s trend． Consistency and correlation of the simulated and observed result
are well，which can satisfy wind power forecast service requirement．

Key words: the output power of wind farm, forecast, mesoscale model

摘要：

风电往往与常规电源不同，具有很大的间歇性、随机性和不可控性，大容量的风电接入电网将会对电力系统安全、稳定运行带来严峻挑战。对风电场的风力进行短期预报，是解决这一问题的有效途径。本文利用中尺度模式与诊断风场模型进行风电场输出功率预报。通过模拟发现，逐时风速预报效果较好，可以反应出风速的变化、大小及趋势。模拟与实况一致性和相关性较好，可以满足风电场风电功率预报的服务要求。

关键词: 风电输出功率, 预报, 中尺度模式, 诊断风场模型

CLC Number:

P456. 9

张铁军，朱蓉，李照荣，李晓霞，伏晶. 利用中尺度模式与诊断风场模型进行风电功率预报[J]. J4, 2011, 29(4): 500-503.

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Wind Power Forecast Based on the Mesoscale Model and Diagnosis Wind Field Model

利用中尺度模式与诊断风场模型进行风电功率预报

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