Abstract:

Abstract:By analysis of the climate characteristic of extreme temperature，the representative meteorological stations in Qingyang were
selected，and the correlation between the representative stations and other stations was analyzed．At first，the highest and lowest tem-
perature prediction model of the representative stations was established by using the method of the support vector machines(CMSVM)
and ECMWF product，and based on that the linear regression statistics relationship of the representative stations and other stations was
established．The forecast test indicated that the accuracy rate of highest and lowest temperature forecast was improved using this method
compared with that of the numerical forecasting release at every station in 2009，and forecast of highest temperature was good in effect
and the mean accuracy rate has enhanced 5%．So the model could be applied in the day－to－day business directly．

Key words: the extreme temperature, climate characteristic, prediction model, test

摘要：

通过分析庆阳极端气温气候特征，选出了代表站，统计分析了代表站和其他站点的相关性。首先根据ECMWF数值预报产品，利用支持向量机方法(CMSVM)制作了代表站的极端最高和最低气温预报模型，在此基础上，建立了代表站和其他站点之间的一元回归线性统计关系。2009年预报检
验评估表明:利用这种方法制作的极端最高和最低气温准确率，比单纯的逐站点数值预报释用准确率均有所提高，其中最高气温效果好，准确率平均提高了5%，达到了较好效果，可以直接应用于日常业务，使预报员对极端气温的预报经验实现了客观定量化。

关键词: 极端气温, 气候特征, 预报模型, 检验