Abstract:

Abstract: Using the monitoring data from the automatic weather stations of Baoding，Wangdu and Zhengding on Jingshi freeway from
December 2007 to November 2009，this paper analyzed the characteristics of road surface temperature． Results show that the variation
of mean road surface temperature was very similar to the diurnal variation of air temperature． This two temperature almost at the same
time reached a very identical minimum about one and a half hours after sunrise，but the road surface temperature reached maximum one
to two hours earlier than the highest air temperature． The air temperature always shows a significant positive correlation to the road surface
temperature． But the total cloud cover，low cloud amount，dew － point temperature，visibility and relative humidity show some opposite
correlations to maximum and minimum road surface temperature，and one of the correlations was important and another was not
obvious． Establishment of the prediction model contained variety of weather factors using the multiple regression for the maximum and
minimum road surface temperature both in winter and summer． The model works well with the temperature ranging from 40 ℃ to 60 ℃
in summer． The predictions for the road surface temperature below － 5 ℃ in winter show a slightly higher value，but the prediction error
less than 2 ℃ accounted for 80%．

Key words:  road surface temperature, prediction model, multiple regression, correlation test

摘要：

选取京石高速公路沿线保定、望都和正定3 套自动气象站2007 年12 月至2009 年11 月的逐分钟路面温度监测资料，分析京石高速路面温度特征。发现路面温度与气温的日变化规律很相近，日出后1． 5 h 左右达到最低值，午后达到最高值。路面温度与气温的最低值在出现时间和数值上差异不大，但最高值的出现时间前者比后者早1 ～ 2 h，并且数值明显比后者高。分析多种气象因子与路面温度的相关关系，结果表明，气温与路面温度始终呈正相关，并且在各项因子中最显著。而总云量、低云量、露点温度、能见度和相对湿度，它们与路面最高温度和路面最低温度的相关性是相反的，且均是与其中一个相关显著而与另一个不太显著。利用多元回归方法建立了冬夏季路面最高温度和路面最低温度的预报模型，各模型均通过显著性检验。模型对夏季40 ～ 60 ℃的路面温度预报较准确; 对冬季－ 5 ℃以下的路面低温预报虽然略偏高，但是预报误差在2℃以内的占80%。

关键词: 路面温度, 预报模型, 多元回归, 相关检验