J4 ›› 2010, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 346-351.
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LIU Shi-Xiang, DAO Jian-Gong, ZHANG Tie-Jun, CHANG Da-Cheng, FU Xiao-Gong, ZHANG Jing, SONG Xiu-Ling
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刘世祥,陶健红,张铁军,尚大成,伏晓红,张静,宋秀玲
作者简介:
基金资助:
中国气象局2007 年多轨道气象业务建设项目
Abstract:
Based on the numerical prediction interpretation techniques and forecast experiences,the short - term objective forecast system of meteorological elements for Northwest China is established. With the aid of meteorological data of real - time observation,the verification and assessments of objective forecast from the system - output for air temperature and precipitation in winter of 2006 have been performed. The results show: ( 1) The forecast accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature is much higher than that of precipitation with the accurate rates of 70% and 34%,respectively. ( 2) The factors affecting the forecast accuracies of temperature and precipitation are the static stability of atmosphere and relative humidity. ( 3) If the system established on month scale,the forecast accuracy of temperature is expected to have a 10% improvement.
Key words: objective forecast of meteorological elements, verification and assessment
摘要:
用数值预报释用技术,建立了西北地区短期气象要素客观预报系统。本文使用系统的客观预报资料,结合实时气象观测资料,对2006 年秋季气温和降水量的客观预报进行检验评估。结果表明,系统对连续性变化气象要素最高气温、最低气温的预报效果较好,预报准确率达到70% 左右,在天气预报业务中具有较明显的指导作用,而对非连续气象要素降水量预报效果较差,预报准确率约34%。气温预报的好坏与大气的稳定程度关系较为密切,降水量预报准确率的高低与相对湿度关系较为密切。分析认为按月建立的气温预报方程,其预报准确率较按季建立的方程可提高10%以上。
关键词: 气象要素客观预报, 检验评估
CLC Number:
P456. 1
LIU Shi-Xiang, DAO Jian-Gong, ZHANG Tie-Jun, CHANG Da-Cheng, FU Xiao-Gong, ZHANG Jing, SONG Xiu-Ling. Verification and Assessment of Autumn Short - term Objective Forecast of Meteorological Elements in Northwest China[J]. J4, 2010, 28(3): 346-351.
刘世祥, 陶健红, 张铁军, 尚大成, 伏晓红, 张静, 宋秀玲. 西北区秋季短期气象要素客观预报检验评估[J]. J4, 2010, 28(3): 346-351.
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