Abstract:

The physical quantities and their indices relative to heavy rain occurred in Linxia of Gansu were summarized． Based on surface
and aerological observations and T213 data，the physical quantities at each meteorological station in Linxia were accounted by triangular
interpolation method，and a physical quantity diagnostic integration forecasting model about heavy － rain in Linxia was established．
And the model has the certain forecasting ability to heavy rain in Linxia．

Key words: heavy － rainstorm, physical quantity, diagnosis, integration forecasting model

摘要：

 针对临夏州大—暴雨产生的物理条件，总结了相关的物理量及其指标，根据地面、高空及T213 数值预报格点资料，采用三角形插值法计算各站点的相关物理量，利用集合的方法建立了临夏州大—暴雨物理量诊断集合预报模型。通过个例检验，该模型对临夏州大—暴雨具有一定的预报能力。

关键词: 大—暴雨, 物理量, 诊断分析, 集合预报模型