J4 ›› 2010, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 87-90.

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Applica tion of Objective S im ilar ityM ethod to Short - Range Foreca st of Ha il in Gannan Pla teau

 WANG Jian-Bing1,2, HONG Chi-Gui2, ZHANG Qing-Zhi2, YANG Wen-Jie2   

  1. Institute of A rid M eteorology, CMA; Key Laboratory of A rid Clim atic Change and Reducing D isaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, China; 2. Gannan M eteorological B ureau of Gansu Province, Hezuo 747000, China
  • Received:2009-05-21 Revised:2009-10-30 Online:2010-04-01 Published:2010-04-01

甘南高原冰雹短时预报的客观相似预报方法

王建兵1,2汪治桂张胜智杨文杰   

  1. 1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730020;2.甘肃甘南藏族自治州气象局,甘肃 合作 747000
  • 作者简介:王建兵(1968-),男,甘肃甘谷人,高级工程师,主要从事天气、气候研究
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局“西北地区防雹消雹技术在甘南州冰雹、雷暴短时临近预报预警中的应用推广研究(2007-07)”课题资助

Abstract:

By using the objective similaritymethod, A short - range forecastmodel of hail in Gannan Plateau was comp leted. The system comp iled by four parts, including a history database of hail, similar case and judgment, viewing history weathermap and comparing with intraday actually happening, adding new hail data. The result shows that the model has a good effect in short - range forecast of hail, and it is an effective method of short - range forecast.

Key words: hail, short - range forecast, similarity

摘要:

 利用相似预报的原理制作了甘南高原冰雹短时预报工具,该方法的实现是通过建立历史个例资料库,寻找相似个例并根据条件判断是否有冰雹,查看历史天气图并与当天实况进行对比,进行人工判断,增加新的冰雹个例4部分完成的。经检验,该方法在甘南州冰雹短时预报中使用效果较好,是一种有效的短时预报方法。

关键词: 冰雹, 短时预报, 相似

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