Characteristics and disaster risk analysis of hail in agricultural area of eastern Qinghai Province in recent 60 years

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639（2022）-03-0436

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the hail data from eleven ground meteorological observation stations in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution of hail days, hail diameter, duration and disaster risk characteristics were analyzed by using statistical methods. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The hail days in the agricultural area of eastern Qinghai Province decreased with climate tendency rate of 11.6 d·(10 a)^-1 in the past 60 years, which passed the significance test of $α$ =0.05, and after 1995, the anomaly of the total number of hail days changed from the positive to the negative. Hualong was the area with the largest number of hail days, and the number of hail days in Jianzha was the least. (2) Hail occurred mainly from May to September each year with seasonal differences. The diurnal variation of hail was obvious, and the peak occurred at 16:00 BST in the afternoon. (3) The number of hail days was positively correlated with altitude of stations and the correlation coefficient between them was as high as 0.97.(4) In the past 60 years, the hail processes with hail diameter less than 6 mm and the duration less than 9 min accounted for 58.33% and 73.55% of the total number of hail processes, respectively. (5) Xunhua was a low-risk area for hail, Hualong, Huangzhong and Huangyuan were medium-risk areas for hail, and Ledu was a high-risk or extremely high-risk area for hail, which was basically consistent with historical hail disasters.

Key words: hail days, spatio-temporal distribution, hail diameter, duration

摘要：

利用1961—2020年青海省东部农业区11个地面观测站降雹资料,应用统计学方法,分析降雹日数时空分布及降雹直径、持续时间和致灾危险性特征。结果表明：（1）近60 a青海省东部农业区降雹日数以11.6 d·（10 a）^-1趋势（通过 $α$ =0.05的显著性检验）下降,且1995年后降雹总日数距平由正转负,化隆降雹日数最多,尖扎最少;（2）降雹主要发生在4—10 月,具有季节性差异,其日变化明显,峰值出现在午后16：00（北京时）;（3）降雹日数与海拔高度呈正相关,相关系数高达0.97;（4）近60 a降雹直径小于6 mm和降雹持续时间小于9 min的过程较多,分别占总观测次数的58.33%和73.55%;（5）循化是降雹轻危险区,化隆、湟中、湟源是降雹中危险区,乐都为降雹高、特高危险区。

关键词: 降雹日数, 时空分布, 降雹直径, 持续时间

CLC Number:

P458.1

LIN Chunying, WANG Qihua, LI Hongmei, GUO Qiang, HOU Yonghui, ZHOU Wanfu, ZHANG Liyan. Characteristics and disaster risk analysis of hail in agricultural area of eastern Qinghai Province in recent 60 years[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(3): 436-443.

林春英, 王启花, 李红梅, 郭强, 侯永慧, 周万福, 张莉燕. 青海省东部农业区近60 a降雹特征及其致灾危险性[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(3): 436-443.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig.1 The spatial distribution of hail days （a,Unit： mm）and its tendency rate （b, Unit： d·（10 a）-1）in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020

Fig.2 The box plot of annual hail days in different altitude ranges in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020

Fig.3 Inter-annual variation of hail days （a） and its anomaly （b） in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020

Fig.4 The 5-year moving statistic curve of hail days （a） and its accumulative anomaly （b） in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020

Fig.5 The inter-annual variation of monthly hail days in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020 （Unit：d）

Fig.6 Monthly variation of hail days and their linear trends in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020

Fig.7 The variation of percentage of hourly hail days to total hail days in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020

Tab.1 Statistics of hail diameter and duration in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020

测站	海拔/m	平均降雹直径/mm	平均持续时间/min
湟中	2295.2	7.00	7.36
湟源	2634.3	6.03	6.06
大通	2450.0	6.00	5.86
乐都	2021.0	8.24	5.76
互助	2480.0	5.80	6.15
化隆	2834.7	5.54	9.00
循化	1870.3	6.80	5.18
民和	1813.9	11.75	5.94
尖扎	2084.6	5.50	5.02
同仁	2491.4	4.98	4.89
门源	2850.0	5.16	6.94

Fig.8 Frequency distribution of hail diameter （a） and duration （b） with different sections at 11 stations in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020

Fig.9 The hazard zoning of hail disaster in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province

References 37

[1]	KNIGHT C A, KNIGHT N C. Hail stones[J]. Scientific American, 1971, 224(4):96-103.
[2]	赵先丽, 李丽光, 贾庆宇,等. 1988—2007年辽宁主要农业气象灾害分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2009, 25(2):33-37.
[3]	DAI A. Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequencies.Part I:Seasonal and interannual variations[J]. Journal of Climate, 2001, 14(6):1092-1111. DOI URL
[4]	DAI A. Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequencies.Part II:Diurnal variations[J]. Journal of Climate, 2001, 14(6):1112-1128. DOI URL
[5]	刘峰贵, 张海峰, 周强,等. 三江源地区冰雹灾害分布特征及其成因[J]. 干旱区地理, 2013, 36(2):238-244.
[6]	ZHANG C X, ZHANG Q H, WANG Y Q. Climatology of hail in China: 1961-2005[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2008, 47(3): 795-804. DOI URL
[7]	张芳华, 高辉. 中国冰雹日数的时空分布特征[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2008, 31(5):687-693.
[8]	符琳, 李维京, 张培群,等. 近50年我国降雹年代际变化及北方降雹趋势成因分析[J]. 气象, 2011, 37(6):669-676.
[9]	王静爱, 史培军, 刘颖慧,等. 中国 1990—1996 年冰雹灾害及其时空动态分析[J]. 自然灾害学报,1999, 8(3): 46-53.
[10]	赵世雄, 李正贵. 青海高原降雹的研究[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1991.
[11]	IPCC Working Group II. The contribution to the IPCC’s fifth assessment report(WGII AR5)[R].Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014.
[12]	ZHANG Q, YAO Y B, WANG Y,et al. Characteristics of drought in Southern China under climatic warming, the risk,and countermeasures for prevention and control[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019, 136(3/4):1157-1173. DOI URL
[13]	马晓玲, 李德帅, 胡淑娟,等. 青海地区雷暴、降雹空间分布及时间变化特征的精细化分析[J]. 气象, 2020, 46(3):301-312.
[14]	曹艳察, 田付友, 郑永光,等. 中国两级阶梯地势区域降雹天气的环境物理量统计特征[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(1):185-196. DOI
[15]	LI M X, ZHANG Q I, ZHANG F Q. Hail day frequency trends and associated armospheric circulation patterns over China during 1960-2012[J]. Climate, 2016, 29(19):7027-7044.
[16]	朱平, 俞小鼎, 王振会,等. 青海高原致灾性对流天气时空分布特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2019, 37(3):377-383.
[17]	刘彩红, 王黎俊, 王振宇,等. 基于灾损评估的青海高原降雹灾害风险区划[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(6): 1409-1415.
[18]	冯晓莉, 马占良, 管琴,等. 1980—2018年青海高原冰雹分布特征及其关键影响因素分析[J]. 气象, 2020, 47(6): 717-726.
[19]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
[20]	刘德祥, 白虎志, 董安祥. 中国西北地区冰雹的气候特征及异常研究[J]. 高原气象, 2004, 23(6):795-803.
[21]	MEZHER R N, DOYLE M, BARROS V. Climatology of hail in Argentina[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2012, 114/115: 70-82. DOI URL
[22]	KAHRAMAN A, TANRIOVER S T, KADOLU M, et al. Severe hail climatology of turkey[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2016, 144(1): 337-346. DOI URL
[23]	ZHAO W H, GUO J P, YAO Z Y, et al. Declining hailstorm frequency in China during 1961-2015 and its potential influential factors[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2018, 38(11): 4116-4126. DOI URL
[24]	刘晓璐, 刘东升, 张世林,等. 近 30年四川降雹气候特征[J]. 气象, 2012, 38(10):1217-1224.
[25]	张云秋, 唐海, 陈茜茜,等. 1961—2017 年遵义地区降雹时空分布特征[J]. 中低纬山地气象, 2018, 42(4):377-383.
[26]	刘晓璐, 张元, 刘建西. 川西南山地降雹灾害的时空特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2016, 34(1):75-81.
[27]	达瓦泽仁, 央美, 王秀明,等. 那曲市历年冰雹日数变化特征及冰雹、雷暴环境条件分析[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2018, 41(4):84-91.
[28]	朱乾根, 林锦瑞, 寿绍文,等. 天气学原理与方法[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2000:409.
[29]	高晓梅, 王令军, 王世杰,等. 1952—2012 年潍坊地区冰雹时空分布特征[J]. 气象与环境学报,2016, 32(3): 77-82.
[30]	杨淑群, 邱予声. 四川省冰雹的时空变化特征[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2012, 34(11): 63-68.
[31]	马晓玲, 李德帅, 胡淑娟,等. 青海地区雷暴、降雹空间分布及时间变化特征的精细化分析[J]. 气象, 2020, 46(3):301-312.
[32]	曹艳察, 田付友, 郑永光,等. 中国两级阶梯地势区域降雹天气的环境物理量统计特征[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(1):185-196. DOI
[33]	LI M X, ZHANG Q I, ZHANG F Q. Hail day frequency trends and associated armospheric circulation patterns over China during 1960-2012[J]. Climate, 2016, 29(19):7027-7044.
[34]	KARNAUSKASK B, LUNDQUIST J K, ZHANG L. Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2018, 11(1): 38-43. DOI URL
[35]	张芳, 虎文珺, 晁剑. 青海省东部农业区冰雹天气特征分析及预警指标研究[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2020, 14(1):63-71.
[36]	王黎俊, 银燕, 郭三刚,等. 基于气候变化背景下的人工防雹效果统计检验:以青海省东部农业区为例[J]. 大气科学学报, 2012, 35(5):524-535.
[37]	郑飒飒, 杨佑洪, 刘志,等. 四川省冰雹分布与地形因子关系分析[J]. 气象科技, 2018, 46(6):1280-1286.