Abstract:

This paper took winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai region as the research object, where agricultural droughts occur frequently with warming climate and increasing evaporation, and defined the water shortage index (k) to classify drought year types based on the data from 1981 to 2020. Taking three stations in Henan Province as examples, this paper used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model to analyze the cost-benefit of drought resistance under different drought year types, in order to provide a reference for improving agricultural output value and agricultural insurance business. The results show that during the study period, the three stations were easy to experience water stress with varying degrees during the growth period of winter wheat, and the drought that occurred in the middle to late stages of the growing season (from early April to harvest) had the greatest impact on yield formation. In order to ensure the safety of national food, agricultural irrigation in the study areas is the main way to keep high yields of winter wheat. According to the cost-benefit analysis, the northern region of Henan Province needs to irrigate 5 times in severe drought years, and irrigate 4 times in general drought years to achieve the maximum benefit. The water conditions in eastern Henan are relatively better than others, with a low probability of severe drought and 3 times irrigation should be needed in general drought years.

Key words: agricultural drought, climate change, the Huang-Huai-Hai region, cost-benefit

摘要：

黄淮海地区是我国粮食主要产区，气候变暖使该地区气温升高、蒸发加剧，冬春季干旱化趋势愈发明显，给冬小麦生产带来极大威胁，农业灌溉是保障冬小麦丰产的主要举措，而灌溉成本大小直接影响农业从业者的生产积极性，探讨冬小麦抗旱灌溉效益对于制定惠农政策、切实提高农民种植收益具有现实意义。以该地区冬小麦为研究对象，基于1981—2020年冬小麦发育期数据和同时期气象数据，应用缺水指标k划分干旱年型，并以河南3个站点为例应用世界粮食研究（World Food Studies，WOFOST）模型模拟分析不同干旱年型下灌溉抗旱的成本和收益，以期为提升农业产值和农业保险业务提供参考。结果发现，3站点在冬小麦生长期内均受到不同程度的水分胁迫，并以生长季中后段（4月上旬到收获）出现的干旱对产量形成影响最大。河南北部地区严重干旱年需灌5水，一般干旱年灌4水即可达到最大收益；河南东部水分条件相对较好，一般干旱年灌3水即可，严重干旱年出现概率低暂不做考虑。

关键词: 农业干旱, 气候变化, 黄淮海地区, 成本效益