Evaluation of precipitation forecast of CMA-MESO model in summer of 2021

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-03-0503

Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 503-515.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-03-0503

• Technical Reports • Previous Articles Next Articles

Evaluation of precipitation forecast of CMA-MESO model in summer of 2021

CAI Yi¹^,²(), XU Zhifang²^,³(), GONG Xi⁴, ZHONG Ruomei⁵, HUANG Guansheng⁶, LONG Haichuan⁷

1. Changxing Meteorological Station of Zhejiang Province， Changxing 313100， Zhejiang， China
2. Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological Administration， Beijing 100081， China
3. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather， Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences， Beijing 100081， China
4. Zhuzhou Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province， Zhuzhou 412000， Hunan， China
5. Guangxi Air Traffic Management Sub-bureau， Nanning 530048， China
6. Chenzhou Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province， Chenzhou 423000， Hunan， China
7. China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited， Chongqing， 401120， China

Received:2022-08-23 Revised:2022-10-27 Online:2023-06-30 Published:2023-07-02
Contact: XU Zhifang

2021年夏季CMA-MESO模式降水预报评估

蔡怡¹^,²(), 徐枝芳²^,³(), 龚玺⁴, 钟若嵋⁵, 黄观胜⁶, 龙海川⁷

1.浙江省长兴县气象局，浙江长兴 313100
2.中国气象局地球系统数值预报重点开放实验室，北京 100081
3.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081
4.湖南省株洲市气象局，湖南株洲 412000
5.中国民用航空中南地区空中交通管理局广西分局，广西南宁 530048
6.湖南省郴州市气象局，湖南郴州 423000
7.中国船舶集团有限公司，重庆 401120

通讯作者: 徐枝芳
作者简介:蔡怡（1996—），女，浙江杭州人，助理工程师，主要从事数值模式与资料同化研究。E-mail：281331328@qq.com。
基金资助:
河南省重大科技专项项目(201400210800);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507605)

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the 3-hour precipitation forecast data and the observation data at surface meteorological stations in summer (from June to August) of 2021 in China, the precipitation forecast performance of CMA-MESO (China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model) with 3 km resolution was diagnosed and analyzed from multiple perspectives, which provides reference for forecasters and basis for model system improvements. The results show that the CMA-MESO 3 km model can better predict the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of average 3 h cumulative precipitation and effective precipitation frequency in different regions. The prediction ability of regional precipitation is stronger than that of single station, and the prediction effect of continuous precipitation is better than that of local short-term heavy precipitation. According to the statistical results with different forecast leading times, the 3 h precipitation prediction is the largest in 8 period predictions, and it is much larger than the observation. Meanwhile, the 6 h, 9 h and 12 h precipitation predictions are closer to the observation. The analysis results of short-term strong precipitation cases show that the CMA-MESO 3 km model forecast for short-term heavy rainfall is more accurate, and the 3 h and 6 h predictions and their temporal variation characteristics are very close to observation. In addition, the regional average precipitation of the eight-period predictions are very close to the observation.

Key words: CMA-MESO 3 km, precipitation, precipitation frequency, bias

摘要：

利用中国2021年夏季（6—8月）逐3 h降水预报资料和地面气象站观测资料，从多个角度诊断分析CMA-MESO （China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model） 3 km系统模式降水预报性能，为预报员提供参考，为模式系统改进提供依据。结果表明：CMA-MESO 3 km模式能较好地预报出不同地区3 h累积降水量和有效降水频率时空分布特征，区域降水预报能力强于单站，持续性降水预报效果好于局地短时强降水。不同预报时效结果显示，CMA-MESO 3 km模式3 h降水预报值最大且大于观测值，6、9、12 h降水预报最接近实况;短时强降水个例结果显示CMA-MESO 3 km模式短临预报效果较好，3、6 h降水预报接近观测，降水量及其时间变化特征预报与观测基本一致，且8个预报时效的区域降水预报平均值接近观测值，预报效果较好。

关键词: CMA-MESO 3 km, 降水量, 降水频率, 偏差

CLC Number:

P456
P426.6

CAI Yi, XU Zhifang, GONG Xi, ZHONG Ruomei, HUANG Guansheng, LONG Haichuan. Evaluation of precipitation forecast of CMA-MESO model in summer of 2021[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2023, 41(3): 503-515.

蔡怡, 徐枝芳, 龚玺, 钟若嵋, 黄观胜, 龙海川. 2021年夏季CMA-MESO模式降水预报评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2023, 41(3): 503-515.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig.1 The spatial distribution of 3-hour cumulative precipitation in summer of 2021 （Unit： mm）

Fig.2 The spatial distribution of 3-hour effective precipitation frequency in summer of 2021

Fig.3 The forecast bias of 3-hour cumulative precipitation in summer in 2021 （forecast minus observation）（Unit： mm）

Fig.4 Comparison of observed 3-hour cumulative precipitation and forecast values with different timeliness in summer of 2021

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of forecast bias of 3-hour effective precipitation frequency in summer of 2021

Fig.6 Comparison of observed 3-hour effective precipitation （a） and heavy precipitation （b） frequency and forecast values with different timeliness in summer of 2021

Fig.7 The diurnal variation of 3-hour cumulative precipitation （a）， regional mean （b） and station mean （c） effective precipitation frequency in different regions of China in summer of 2021

Fig.8 Diurnal variation of observed and forecasted 3-hour cumulative precipitation （the left）， station average （the center） and regional average （the right） effective precipitation frequency with different forecasting timeliness in different regions of China in summer of 2021

Fig.9 The 3-hour cumulative precipitation of observation and forecast values with different timeliness in western （a） and eastern （b） Sichuan Province from 17 to 24 July 2021

Fig.10 The 3-hour cumulative precipitation of observation and forecast values with different leading times in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （a） and Baoding station （b） from 11 to 13 July 2021

Fig.11 The observed 3-hour cumulative precipitation and forecast values with different leading times in Henan （a） and Zhengzhou station （b） from 19 to 21 July 2021

Fig.12 The observed 3-hour precipitation and forecast values with different leading times in Shanghai （a） and Pudong station （b） from 24 to 26 July 2021

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Evaluation of precipitation forecast of CMA-MESO model in summer of 2021

2021年夏季CMA-MESO模式降水预报评估

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