Analysis of response of atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomaly over the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-05-0804

Abstract

Abstract:

The Tropical Pacific Ocean is one of the areas experiencing the most active response of atmosphere to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. Understanding changes in the response of atmosphere to SST anomaly in the Tropical Pacific Ocean can help us to gain comprehensive knowledge of atmospheric circulation, ENSO, monsoon onset, typhoon activity and even physical/dynamical processes in the stratosphere. Based on the GFDL-ESM2G and CMCC-CESM models of CMIP5, the characteristics of the response of atmosphere to SST anomaly over the Tropical Pacific Ocean under the future RCP8.5 emission scenario are investigated. It is found that SST is increasing over the Tropical Pacific Ocean from 2006 to 2100 year by year. However, the correlations between SST and convective activities, 200 hPa geopotential height anomalies, vertical velocity anomalies over the Tropical Pacific Ocean are significantly weaker during 2080-2100 compared to those during 2006-2030. This indicates that along with the warming of the Tropical Pacific Ocean, there is a weakened response of atmosphere to SST anomaly in the future. The weakened response of atmosphere to SST anomaly over the Tropical Pacific Ocean further results in the weakened response of stratospheric temperature to the warm Tropical Pacific Ocean. The results of the CAM5 sensitivity test confirm that the response of atmosphere to SST anomaly over the Tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to weaken in the future. Further studies found that the regional average SST over the Tropical Pacific Ocean would increase from 27.4 °C during 2006-2030 to 29.4 °C during 2080-2100. Previous studies indicated that over the Tropical Pacific Oceans, deep convection linearly increases with increasing SST near 27.5 °C. However, once SST is more than 28 °C, further increases of SST appear to have little effect on convective intensification. Hence, in the future, the SST over the Tropical Pacific Ocean would exceed 28 °C, and further increases in SST actually suppress convective activities, which in turn leads to the weakened response of atmosphere to SST anomaly.

Key words: the Tropical Pacific Ocean, SST, atmosphere, stratospheric temperature

摘要：

热带太平洋是大气对海表温度（sea surface temperature，SST）异常响应最活跃的地带之一，了解热带太平洋海域大气对SST异常响应的变化特征有助于全面了解大气环流、ENSO、季风爆发、台风活动甚至平流层的物理、动力学过程。利用CMIP5的GFDL-ESM2G和CMCC-CESM模式研究未来RCP8.5排放情景下，热带太平洋海域大气对SST异常的响应特征。结果表明，2006—2100年热带太平洋SST逐年增加，而2080—2100年热带太平洋SST与对流活动、200 hPa位势高度异常、垂直速度异常的相关性较2006—2030年明显减弱，预示未来热带太平洋海域大气对SST异常的响应可能减弱。热带太平洋海域大气对SST异常的响应减弱进一步导致平流层温度对未来热带太平洋SST增加的响应减弱。CAM5的敏感性试验结果亦证实了未来热带太平洋海域大气对SST变暖的响应可能减弱。进一步研究发现热带太平洋区域平均SST从2006—2030年的27.4 ℃增加至2080—2100年的29.4 ℃。已有研究表明，当热带太平洋SST在27.5 ℃附近时，深对流活动会随着SST增加而线性加强，而当SST超过28 ℃时，SST的增加对对流活动的影响变小。因此，未来热带太平洋SST超过28 ℃，SST的持续增加对对流活动的影响变小，从而导致大气对SST异常的响应减弱。

关键词: 热带太平洋, 海表温度, 大气, 平流层温度

CLC Number:

P424.4+2

HAN Yuanyuan, LUO Jiali, WANG Feiyang, LI Shentao. Analysis of response of atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomaly over the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(5): 804-813.

韩元元, 雒佳丽, 王飞洋, 李申涛. RCP8.5情景下未来热带太平洋海域大气对海表温度的响应分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(5): 804-813.

Figures/Tables 10

Tab.1 The correlation coefficients between SST and OLR averaged over the Tropical Pacific Ocean region for the period 2006-2019 based on CMIP5 model simulations

序号	模式名	相关系数	序号	模式名	相关系数
1	ACCESS1.0	-0.20	17	HadGEM2-CC	-0.07
2	ACCESS1.3	-0.26	18	HadGEM2-ES	-0.36
3	CMCC-CM	-0.10	19	INM-CM4	0.02
4	CMCC-CMS	-0.43	20	IPSL-CM5A-LR	-0.52
5	CNRM-CM5	-0.41	21	IPSL-CM5A-MR	-0.65
6	CSIRO-Mk3.6.0	-0.73	22	IPSL-CM5B-LR	-0.33
7	CanESM2	-0.64	23	MIROC-ESM	-0.08
8	FGOALS-s2	-0.64	24	MIROC-ESM-CHEM	-0.19
9	GFDL-CM3	-0.60	25	MIROC5	-0.10
10	GFDL-ESM2G	-0.55	26	MPI-ESM-LR	-0.35
11	GFDL-ESM2M	-0.75	27	MPI-ESM-MR	-0.39
12	GISS-E2-H	-0.56	28	MRI-CGCM3	-0.23
13	GISS-E2-H-CC	-0.50	29	NorESM1-ME	-0.67
14	GISS-E2-R	-0.50	30	NorESM1-M	-0.65
15	GISS-E2-R-CC	-0.45	31	CMCC-CESM	-0.73
16	HadGEM2-AO	-0.24	32	MRI-ESM1	-0.23

Fig.1 The distribution of climate states of SST from 1979 to 2019 based on ERSST （a） and from 1979 to 2005 based on CMIP5 GFDL-ESM2G historical simulations （b）， and SST from 2006 to 2030 （c） and from 2080 to 2100 （d） simulated by the CMIP5 GFDL-ESM2G model （Unit： ℃）

Tab.2 Description of the CAM5 experiments

试验	详细说明
E1（对照试验）	Hadley中心1980—2015年的气候平均态，热带太平洋的背景SST为27 °C
E2（敏感性试验）	在试验E1基础上，叠加SST异常
E3（对照试验）	同E1，热带太平洋的背景SST为29 °C
E4（敏感性试验）	在试验E3基础上，叠加SST异常

Fig.2 The 20-year sliding correlation between SST and OLR averaged over the Tropical Pacific Ocean region for the period 2006-2100 （a）， and correlation coefficients between SST and OLR during 2006-2030 （b） and 2080-2100 （c） based on simulations of CMIP5 GFDL-ESM2G model

Fig.3 The 20-year sliding correlation between SST and OLR averaged over the Tropical Pacific Ocean region for the period of 2006-2100 based on simulations of CMIP5 11 models

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between SST and vertical velocity （a， b）， 200 hPa geopotential height （c， d） anomaly during the period 2006-2030 （a， c） and 2080-2100 （b， d） over the Tropical Pacific Ocean region based on simulations of CMIP5 GFDL-ESM2G model

Fig.5 The20-year sliding correlation coefficient between SST and OLR averaged over the Tropical Pacific Ocean region during the period 2006-2100 based on the simulation of CMIP5 CMCC-CESM model （a）， correlation coefficients between SST and OLR （b， c）， anomaly of vertical velocity （d， e）， anomaly of geopotential height at 200 hPa （f， g） during 2006-2030 （b， d， f） and 2080-2100 （c， e， g）， respectively

Fig.6 Time series of SST over the Tropical Pacific Ocean from 2006 to 2100 simulated by the CMIP5 GFDL-ESM2G model

Fig.7 The anomalies of OLR （a， b， Unit： W·m-2）， vertical velocity （c， d， Unit： m·s-1） and geopotential height at 200 hPa （e， f， Unit： gpm） from simulations of CAM5 experiments in the context of 2000 （a， c， e） and 2100 （b， d， f） background SST

Fig.8 Regression coefficient of SST over the Tropical Pacific Ocean simulated by CMIP5 CMCC-CESM model on stratospheric temperature anomaly during the period of 2006-2030 （a） and 2080-2100 （b）（the dotted for regression coefficients passing the significance test at the 95% confidence level）， and anomalies of stratospheric temperature simulated by CAM5 experiments in the context of 2000 （c） and 2100 （d） background SST （Unit： K）

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