Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events in Northwest China During 1961-2010

  

  1. 1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of
    Gansu Province,  Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    2. Guannan Meteorological station of Jiangsu Province, Guannan 222500, China;
    3. Institute of Eco-environment and Agro-meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081, China;
    4. Anhui University of Science & Technology, Hefei 232001, China
  • Online:2015-12-31 Published:2015-12-31

1961~2010年西北地区极端气候事件变化特征

  

  1. 1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,
    中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020;
    2. 江苏省连云港市灌南县气象局,江苏灌南222500;
    3.中国气象科学研究院,生态环境与农业气象研究所,北京100081;
    4. 安徽理工大学测绘学院,安徽合肥232001
  • 作者简介:齐月(1988- ),女,山东章丘人,硕士,主要从事气候变化及其对农业的影响研究. E-mail:goodqiyue@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41505098)、兰州干旱气象研究所基本科研业务费项目(KYYWF201504)和兰州干旱气象研究所科研启动项目(KYS2014SSKY04)共同资助

Abstract:

Based on the daily average, maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation from 131 meteorological stations in Northwest China during 1961-2010, the 95% and 99% extreme climate events were respectively defined by setting 95% and 99% as thresholds firstly. And on this basis, the trend characteristics of 95% and 99% extreme temperature and precipitation days were analyzed. The results showed that the average temperature in Northwest China presented a significant increasing trend and the precipitation showed a slight increasing trend in the past 50 years. With the global warming, the extreme high temperature events increased and the extreme low temperature events decreased, while the extreme precipitation events increased. There were abrupt changes for the 95% and 99% extreme low temperature days as well as the 99% precipitation days in 1980, the 95% extreme precipitation days in 2000, and the 95%(99%) extreme high temperature days in 1982(1996), which were consistent with the change trend of temperature and precipitation. The decrease of the extreme low temperature days during 1961-2010 was obviously greater than the increase of the extreme high temperature days, which indicated temperature daily range decreased and there was an asymmetric warming. In space, the 95% and 99% extreme high temperature days increased and the 95% and 99% extreme low temperature days decreased in area with higher warming rate, and the significant increasing of the 95% and 99% extreme precipitation days were concentrated in area with higher tendency rate of precipitation.

Key words: extreme climate events, Northwest China, asymmetric warming, trends

摘要:

利用1961~2010年西北地区131个气象站的逐日平均气温、最高和最低气温及逐日降水资料,分析了西北地区极端气候事件的变化趋势及空间分布特征。结果表明:气候变暖背景下,西北地区近50 a来气温整体呈增加趋势,极端高温事件增多,极端低温事件减少;降水量呈微弱的增加趋势,极端降水事件增多;极端高温日数分别在1982年和1996年发生转折,95%、99%极端低温日数均在1980年前后发生突变,95%、99%极端降水日数分别在2000年和1980年出现转折,这与气温和降水的变化趋势一致。极端低温日数减少的幅度大于极端高温日数增加的幅度,表明气温日较差呈减小趋势,存在非对称性增温特征。空间上,增温率大的区域其极端高温日数增加,极端低温日数显著减少;95%、99%极端降水日数增率大的区域多位于降水量倾向率较高的地区。

关键词: 极端气候事件, 西北地区, 非对称性增温, 变化趋势

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