关键词: T213 L31 数值预报产品, 24 h 变量相关系数, 检验

Abstract:

Based on the T213 L31 numerical prediction products，the height field，temperature field，wind field，vertical velocity field， and humidity field on every pressure level in range of east Asia have been evaluated by using 24 hours variable correlation coefficient． The results are as follows: 1) For the height field forecast，the predicting length that could pass the significance test at the level of α = 0． 001 was 10 days，and the higher credible ( 24 h variable correlation coefficient more than 0． 4) predicting length could reach 6 － 7 days at the middle and upper layer of troposphere and 5 days at the middle and lower layer of troposphere; 2) For the temperature field forecast，the predicting length that could pass the significance test at the level of α = 0． 001 was 9 days，and the higher credible predicting length could reach 4 days at the middle and upper layer of troposphere，and 5 days at the middle and lower layer of troposphere; 3) For the wind field forecast，the predicting length that could pass the significance test at the level of α = 0． 001 was 8 days，and the higher credible predicting length could reach 5 days at the upper layer of troposphere，and 4 days at the middle layer of troposphere， and 3 days at the lower layer of troposphere; 4) For the vertical velocity field forecast，the predicting length that could pass the significance test at the level of α = 0． 001 was 5 days，and the higher credible predicting length could only reach 1 － 2 days at troposphere; 5) For the specific humidity field forecast，the predicting length that could pass the significance test at the level of α = 0． 001 was 6 days，and the higher credible predicting length could reach 2 days at the middle layer of troposphere，and 3 － 4 days at the lower layer of troposphere．

Key words: T213 L31 numerical prediction products, 24 h variable correlation coefficient, verification