J4 ›› 2011, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 269-275.

• 论文 •    下一篇

中国植物物候变化预测

赖欣1,2 ,范广洲1,2刘雅星3   

  1. 1. 成都信息工程学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225;
    2. 成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,四川成都610225; 3. 河南省气候中心,河南郑州450003
  • 收稿日期:2011-04-11 出版日期:2011-11-30 发布日期:2011-06-20
  • 作者简介:赖欣( 1984 - ) ,女,四川南充人,助教,博士研究生,主要从事气候诊断与数值模拟研究. E - mail: nacylai@ cuit. edu. cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目“我国物候变化特征及其对气候变化的响应( 40875053) ”资助

Prediction About Future Plant Phenology Variation in China

LAI Xin1,2,FAN Guangzhou1,2,LIU Yaxing3   

  1.  1. Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu University
    of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China; 2. College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University
    of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China; 3. Climate Center of He'nan Province,Zhengzhou 450003,China
  • Received:2011-04-11 Online:2011-11-30 Published:2011-06-20

摘要:

根据中国20 个观测站点的木本、草本植物物候资料,结合气温、降水资料,预测了1989 ~ 2099年植物始展叶期、始花期物候,结果表明: 未来我国气温、降水、季节开始时间变化,对我国植物物候期有明显的影响,其中气温对物候期的作用最为显著。春季气温升高,春季物候期提前,未来全国5 区植物始展叶期、始花期均以显著的提前趋势为主,植物春季物候期提前主要是1989 ~ 2099 年春季增温、春季开始时间提前所造成。

关键词: 物候, 气温, 降水, 季节, 预测

Abstract:

 Based on plants phenological observation data of 20 stations in China and combined with daily temprature and precipitation data throughout China,the phenological phases during the beginning period of expanded leaves and first flowering period from 1989 to2099 are predicted. The results show that the variation of temperature,precipitation and starting dates of each season would obviously affect the plants phenological phases,and the influence of temperature change on phenological phases would be most significant. When spring temperature increases,the spring phenological phases would advance. In five areas of China,the beginning period of expanded leaves and first flowering period would significantly advance in future because of temperature increase and spring starting date advance during 1989 - 2099.

Key words:  phenology, temperature, precipitation, season, prediction

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