中国干旱区太阳辐射变化特征分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-03-0379

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

太阳能开发是中国实现“双碳”目标的关键途径。中国干旱区地域辽阔、太阳能资源丰富，但受地面观测站点稀缺、资料匮乏影响，对1980年气候变暖以来该区域太阳辐射变化特征及其影响因子了解不够充分，一定程度制约了区域光伏电站选址及太阳能资源的开发利用。为此，本文利用中国干旱区25个国家级地面辐射观测站太阳辐射资料、218个国家基准气候站云量资料及欧洲数值预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts，ECMWF）高时空分辨率ERA5地表下行太阳短波辐射再分析资料，对该区域1980—2020年太阳辐射变化特征和影响因子进行研究。结果表明，该区域全年日平均太阳辐射呈增加趋势，具有明显的纬向特征；新疆南部、甘肃河西西部及青海部分区域辐射较大，超过50 MJ·m^-2，年代际变化特征明显。1981—1990年全年日平均太阳辐射缓慢增加，1991—2010年快速增加，2011—2020年波动趋缓，整体趋于平稳。中国干旱区全年、冷暖季等各时段日平均太阳辐射均在1995年前后出现明显突变，主要变化区域在新疆北部、内蒙古东部。低云量变化是导致中国干旱区太阳辐射变化的可能原因，但其影响机制比较复杂，不是单一的线性关系，可能与该区域强烈的陆气相互作用相关，需要开展更深入的研究。

关键词: 中国, 干旱区, 太阳辐射, 低云量, 暖湿化

Abstract:

Solar energy development is the key way for China to achieve dual carbon goals. China’s arid regions cover a vast territory and abound in solar energy resources. However, limited by scarce ground observation sites and insufficient in-situ data, the spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of solar radiation in this region under climate warming since 1980 have not been fully clarified, which restricts the site selection of photovoltaic power stations and the development and utilization of regional solar energy resources to a certain extent. Therefore, based on solar radiation observations from 25 national ground radiation stations, cloud cover data from 218 national benchmark climate stations, and high spatiotemporal resolution ERA5 surface downward shortwave solar radiation reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study investigates the variation characteristics and influencing factors of solar radiation in arid regions of China during 1980-2020. The results show that the daily mean solar radiation in the study area presents an increasing trend with obvious zonal characteristics. High-value radiation areas are mainly distributed in southern Xinjiang, western Hexi Corridor of Gansu, and parts of Qinghai, with radiation values exceeding 50 MJ·m^-2, with obvious decadal variation characteristics. The annual daily mean solar radiation increased slowly during 1981-1990, rose rapidly from 1991 to 2010, and fluctuated mildly and tended to be stable overall during 2011-2020. The daily mean solar radiation for annual, cold-season, and warm-season periods in the arid regions of China exhibited significant abrupt changes around 1995, which mainly occurred in northern Xinjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia. Low cloud cover variation is the possible cause of solar radiation variation in the regions, but its influence mechanism is complex and does not follow a simple linear relationship, and may be related to the strong land-atmosphere interaction in the area, so more in-depth research is needed.

Key words: China, arid region, solar radiation, low cloud cover, warm and humid

中图分类号:

P422.1

赵龙, 刘宇伟, 姜雪, 周强, 沈渭程, 任余龙. 中国干旱区太阳辐射变化特征分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(3): 379-386.

ZHAO long, LIU Yuwei, JIANG Xue, ZHOU Qiang, SHEN Weicheng, REN Yulong. Analysis of solar radiation variation characteristics in arid region of China[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(3): 379-386.

图/表 7

图1 研究区地面太阳辐射观测站（蓝点）及国际地圈生物圈计划（International Geosphere Biosphere Programme，IGBP）下垫面覆盖类型（填色）空间分布（色标条中数字表示IGBP下垫面覆盖类型，0~17分别代表水、常绿针叶林、常绿阔叶林、落叶针叶林、落叶阔叶林、混交林、封闭灌丛、开阔灌丛、木本稀树草原、稀树草原、草原、永久湿地、农田、城市和建筑物、作物或自然植被镶嵌体、冰雪、贫瘠或稀疏植被覆盖地、未分类区）

Fig.1 Spatial distribution of surface solar radiation stations （blue dots） and the land cover types from the IGBP （the color shaded） in the research area （The numbers on the color bar denote IGBP land cover types， with values ranging from 0 to 17 corresponding to water， evergreen needleleaf forest， evergreen broadleaf forest， deciduous needleleaf forest， deciduous broadleaf forest， mixed forest， closed shrubland， open shrubland， woody savanna， savanna， grassland， permanent wetland， cropland， urban and built-up land， cropland or natural vegetation mosaic， snow and ice， barren or sparsely vegetated and unclassified）

图2 1988—2016年中国干旱区全年及不同季节日平均太阳辐射空间分布（单位：MJ·m-2）（a）全年，（b）春季，（c）夏季，（d）秋季，（e）冬季

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of daily mean solar radiation at annual and seasonal scales over arid regions of China from 1988 to 2016 (Unit: MJ·m-2) (a) annual, (b) spring, (c) summer, (d) autumn, (e) winter

表1 1988－2016年中国干旱区全年及不同季节ERA5日平均地表下行太阳辐射偏差统计

Table 1 Statistics of daily mean ERA5 surface downward solar radiation bias at annual and seasonal scales over arid regions of China from 1988 to 2016

时段	最大偏差	平均偏差
全年	7.2	-2.8
春季	7.3	-2.7
夏季	3.5	-3.7
秋季	8.4	-2.5
冬季	5.7	0.6

图3 1980—2020年中国干旱区日平均地表下行太阳辐射（a，单位：MJ·m-2）、线性倾向率[b，单位：MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1]空间分布及日区域平均地表下行太阳辐射年际变化（c）

Fig.3 Spatial distributions of daily mean surface downward solar radiation (a, Unit: MJ·m-2) and linear trend rate (b, Unit: MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1), and the interannual variations of regional averaged daily surface downward solar radiation （c） over arid regions of China from 1980 to 2020

图4 1980—2020年中国干旱区日平均地表下行太阳辐射M-K突变检验（a），及1980—1995年（b）、1996—2020年（c）区域平均的日地表下行太阳辐射距平（单位：MJ·m-2）

Fig.4 The Mann-Kendall abrupt change test of daily mean surface downward solar radiation (a), and regional mean anomalies of daily surface downward solar radiation during 1980-1995 (b) and 1996-2020 (c) (Unit: MJ·m-2) over arid regions of China

图5 1980—2020年中国干旱区暖季（a）和冷季（b）日平均地表下行太阳辐射空间分布（单位：MJ·m-2）

Fig.5 Spatial distributions of daily mean surface downward solar radiation in warm season (a) and cold season (b) from 1980 to 2020 (Unit: MJ·m-2)

图6 1980—2020年中国干旱区暖季（a）和冷季（b）平均低云量和日平均地表下行太阳辐射年际变化

Fig.6 Interannual variations of average low cloud cover and daily mean surface downward solar radiation in warm (a) and cold (b) seasons over arid regions of China from 1980 to 2020

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