干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 436-443.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-03-0436

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

青海省东部农业区近60 a降雹特征及其致灾危险性

林春英1(), 王启花1, 李红梅2(), 郭强3, 侯永慧1, 周万福1, 张莉燕1   

  1. 1.青海省气象灾害防御技术中心,青海 西宁 810001
    2.青海省气候中心,青海 西宁 810001
    3.青海省西宁市气象局,青海 西宁 810003
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-13 修回日期:2021-11-30 出版日期:2022-06-30 发布日期:2022-06-28
  • 通讯作者: 李红梅
  • 作者简介:林春英(1978—),女,青海省西宁人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事人工影响天气研究工作. E-mail: qhryblin@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    青海省科技厅项目(2021-ZJ-745);中国气象局西北区域人影建设研究试验项目(RYSY201903);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK010406);国家自然基金(31872999);国家自然基金(42165008);国家自然基金(41565008)

Characteristics and disaster risk analysis of hail in agricultural area of eastern Qinghai Province in recent 60 years

LIN Chunying1(), WANG Qihua1, LI Hongmei2(), GUO Qiang3, HOU Yonghui1, ZHOU Wanfu1, ZHANG Liyan1   

  1. 1. Qinghai Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center, Xining 810001,China
    2. Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001,China
    3. Xining Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province, Xining 810003,China
  • Received:2021-04-13 Revised:2021-11-30 Online:2022-06-30 Published:2022-06-28
  • Contact: LI Hongmei

摘要:

利用1961—2020年青海省东部农业区11个地面观测站降雹资料,应用统计学方法,分析降雹日数时空分布及降雹直径、持续时间和致灾危险性特征。结果表明:(1)近60 a青海省东部农业区降雹日数以11.6 d·(10 a)-1趋势(通过 α=0.05的显著性检验)下降,且1995年后降雹总日数距平由正转负,化隆降雹日数最多,尖扎最少;(2)降雹主要发生在4—10 月,具有季节性差异,其日变化明显,峰值出现在午后16:00(北京时);(3)降雹日数与海拔高度呈正相关,相关系数高达0.97;(4)近60 a降雹直径小于6 mm和降雹持续时间小于9 min的过程较多,分别占总观测次数的58.33%和73.55%;(5)循化是降雹轻危险区,化隆、湟中、湟源是降雹中危险区,乐都为降雹高、特高危险区。

关键词: 降雹日数, 时空分布, 降雹直径, 持续时间

Abstract:

Based on the hail data from eleven ground meteorological observation stations in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution of hail days, hail diameter, duration and disaster risk characteristics were analyzed by using statistical methods. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The hail days in the agricultural area of eastern Qinghai Province decreased with climate tendency rate of 11.6 d·(10 a)-1 in the past 60 years, which passed the significance test of α=0.05, and after 1995, the anomaly of the total number of hail days changed from the positive to the negative. Hualong was the area with the largest number of hail days, and the number of hail days in Jianzha was the least. (2) Hail occurred mainly from May to September each year with seasonal differences. The diurnal variation of hail was obvious, and the peak occurred at 16:00 BST in the afternoon. (3) The number of hail days was positively correlated with altitude of stations and the correlation coefficient between them was as high as 0.97.(4) In the past 60 years, the hail processes with hail diameter less than 6 mm and the duration less than 9 min accounted for 58.33% and 73.55% of the total number of hail processes, respectively. (5) Xunhua was a low-risk area for hail, Hualong, Huangzhong and Huangyuan were medium-risk areas for hail, and Ledu was a high-risk or extremely high-risk area for hail, which was basically consistent with historical hail disasters.

Key words: hail days, spatio-temporal distribution, hail diameter, duration

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